MODEL VERDICT
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $372.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $364.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $365.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $353.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $321.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $398.04 | +7.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $427.11 | +14.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $39.33 | -89.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $324.15 | -12.9% | 100% | 51 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.49 | 8.83 | 7.32 | 24.33 | 9.41 |
| P/TBV | 8.47 | 8.23 | 1.49 | 15.67 | 7.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.46 | 8.20 | 1.49 | 15.67 | 7.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.56 | 5.49 | 1.55 | 6.64 | 2.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates TLN's fair value at $324.15 vs the current price of $372.16, implying -12.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $324.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $261.75 (P10) to $370.16 (P90), with a median of $316.02.
TLN's current P/E of -77.7x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -391.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover TLN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $475.80 (range: $408.00 — $510.00), implying +27.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (7), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TLN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.