MODEL VERDICT
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $60.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $63.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $60.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $57.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $59.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $83.32 | +38.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $83.13 | +37.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $100.73 | +66.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $125.19 | +107.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $102.80 | +70.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $125.30 | +107.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $209.45 | +246.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $94.44 | +56.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $98.44 | +63.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $100.73 | +66.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $147.38 | +144.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $95.66 | +58.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $35 | $53 | $70 | $88 | $105 |
| Conservative (21%) | $38 | $57 | $75 | $94 | $113 |
| Base Case (32.8%) | $41 | $62 | $83 | $103 | $124 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $45 | $67 | $90 | $112 | $135 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.95 | 7.58 | 3.35 | 13.64 | 3.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.72 | 6.60 | 3.65 | 11.77 | 2.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.32 | 6.51 | 3.57 | 10.94 | 2.45 |
| P/FCF | 11.11 | 7.34 | 3.05 | 37.37 | 12.01 |
| P/FFO | 7.36 | 7.32 | 3.25 | 11.80 | 2.54 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.89 | 1.35 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 7.95 | 7.64 | 3.34 | 13.63 | 3.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.76 | 1.13 | 0.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TMHC's fair value at $95.66 vs the current price of $60.39, implying +58.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $95.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.56 (P10) to $103.83 (P90), with a median of $90.95.
TMHC's current P/E of 7.8x compares to the industry median of 13.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -40.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover TMHC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $73.75 (range: $69.00 — $80.00), implying +22.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TMHC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4780.0% to approximately $89. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.