MODEL VERDICT
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $19.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $20.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $20.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $20.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $19.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $54.79 | +182.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $62.96 | +224.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.41 | +221.4% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 228.61 | 166.05 | 110.26 | 472.08 | 164.63 |
| P/TBV | 12.62 | 9.53 | 6.18 | 22.71 | 6.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.48 | 9.53 | 6.13 | 22.36 | 6.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.46 | 3.60 | 1.46 | 13.78 | 5.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates TNDM's fair value at $62.41 vs the current price of $19.42, implying +221.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.70 (P10) to $86.95 (P90), with a median of $64.35.
TNDM's current P/E of -6.4x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -122.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover TNDM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.62 (range: $21.00 — $56.00), implying +62.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TNDM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.