MODEL VERDICT
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $7.81 | +191.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $5.04 | +88.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.43 | +177.3% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.73 | 4.72 | 1.59 | 10.89 | 4.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.82 | 6.20 | 1.08 | 22.72 | 8.64 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.53 | 0.53 | 0.06 | 3.40 | 1.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates TOI's fair value at $7.43 vs the current price of $2.68, implying +177.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.67 (P10) to $10.70 (P90), with a median of $7.51.
TOI's current P/E of -3.8x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -117.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover TOI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $5.00 — $5.00), implying +86.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TOI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.