MODEL VERDICT
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $82.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $78.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $81.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $80.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $83.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $50.59 | -38.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $77.13 | -6.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $79.06 | -4.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $34.08 | -58.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $113.52 | +37.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $39.23 | -52.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $91.00 | +10.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $88.89 | +7.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $97.44 | +18.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $76.88 | -6.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $33.99 | -58.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.13 | -13.9% | 100% | 90 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $75 | $82 | $88 | $95 | $102 |
| Conservative (9%) | $78 | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 |
| Base Case (13.2%) | $81 | $88 | $95 | $102 | $109 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $84 | $92 | $99 | $106 | $114 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.57 | 28.08 | 13.09 | 41.45 | 10.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.20 | 14.66 | 8.89 | 21.04 | 4.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.31 | 14.93 | 8.53 | 24.75 | 5.92 |
| P/FCF | 20.78 | 17.38 | 8.81 | 46.31 | 12.12 |
| P/FFO | 22.65 | 25.59 | 12.65 | 30.96 | 6.91 |
| P/AFFO | 30.37 | 28.49 | 14.61 | 53.21 | 13.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.39 | 5.46 | 3.44 | 7.48 | 1.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.31 | 1.90 | 1.22 | 4.38 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TPB's fair value at $71.13 vs the current price of $82.60, implying -13.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.73 (P10) to $74.44 (P90), with a median of $65.51.
TPB's current P/E of 26.6x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +4.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover TPB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $130.00 (range: $130.00 — $130.00), implying +57.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TPB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2340.0% to approximately $63. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.