MODEL VERDICT
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $42.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $41.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $42.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $42.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $44.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $25.75 | -39.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $19.56 | -54.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $29.35 | -30.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $19.59 | -53.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $26.20 | -38.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $29.33 | -31.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $44.18 | +4.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $19.08 | -55.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $10.27 | -75.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $29.40 | -30.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $19.30 | -54.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.49 | -30.6% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $39 | $42 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
| Conservative (8%) | $40 | $43 | $46 | $49 | $52 |
| Base Case (11.6%) | $41 | $44 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $43 | $46 | $49 | $52 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.71 | 30.57 | 23.81 | 36.37 | 4.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.10 | 21.59 | 16.09 | 26.89 | 4.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.67 | 20.99 | 17.19 | 25.33 | 2.82 |
| P/FCF | 33.01 | 31.32 | 17.98 | 55.08 | 12.06 |
| P/FFO | 23.70 | 23.42 | 19.28 | 28.65 | 3.32 |
| P/TBV | 3.98 | 3.86 | 3.49 | 5.02 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 32.33 | 31.47 | 24.98 | 43.43 | 6.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.76 | 2.69 | 2.37 | 3.43 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.56 | 3.84 | 2.76 | 3.92 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TR's fair value at $29.49 vs the current price of $42.50, implying -30.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.09 (P10) to $31.44 (P90), with a median of $28.20.
TR's current P/E of 31.0x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +44.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for TR.
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 13.7% is 1.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.1%), with a Z-score of +1.7σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$36. (2) Multiple compression: TR trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1550.0% to approximately $36. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.