MODEL VERDICT
TriMas Corporation (TRS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $38.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $37.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $19.39 | -49.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $21.70 | -43.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $50.57 | +31.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $22.11 | -42.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $35.27 | -8.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $26.32 | -31.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $20.95 | -45.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $50.21 | +30.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $22.08 | -42.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.46 | -18.4% | 100% | 75 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $34 | $40 | $46 | $52 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $35 | $41 | $47 | $53 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $29 | $36 | $42 | $49 | $55 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $37 | $44 | $50 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.79 | 24.60 | 12.02 | 41.68 | 10.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.18 | 22.41 | 14.84 | 45.43 | 11.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.51 | 12.04 | 10.88 | 29.16 | 6.56 |
| P/FCF | 34.29 | 31.08 | 15.88 | 78.75 | 21.91 |
| P/FFO | 10.78 | 10.43 | 8.16 | 14.46 | 2.10 |
| P/TBV | 9.65 | 7.64 | 4.40 | 18.63 | 4.87 |
| P/AFFO | 19.16 | 20.09 | 11.22 | 26.42 | 6.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.98 | 2.05 | 1.51 | 2.54 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.64 | 1.79 | 1.09 | 2.24 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRS's fair value at $31.46 vs the current price of $38.53, implying -18.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.42 (P10) to $40.19 (P90), with a median of $34.17.
TRS's current P/E of 13.1x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -23.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.8x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
14 analysts cover TRS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.00 (range: $38.00 — $38.00), implying -1.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8920.0% to approximately $4. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.