MODEL VERDICT
TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $48.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $46.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $46.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $46.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $46.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $46.06 | -4.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $40.59 | -15.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $45.18 | -6.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $52.53 | +9.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $46.06 | -4.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $30.79 | -35.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.80 | -10.9% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $43 | $50 | $56 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $38 | $44 | $51 | $58 | $65 |
| Base Case (3.6%) | $37 | $44 | $51 | $57 | $64 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $38 | $44 | $51 | $58 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.80 | 12.26 | 9.56 | 14.55 | 1.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.00 | 11.08 | 8.70 | 13.04 | 1.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.70 | 9.61 | 7.63 | 11.53 | 1.29 |
| P/FCF | 12.17 | 11.62 | 9.61 | 16.56 | 2.42 |
| P/FFO | 9.98 | 10.29 | 8.38 | 12.39 | 1.46 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.10 | 0.92 | 1.56 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 10.85 | 10.96 | 8.77 | 13.14 | 1.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.10 | 0.92 | 1.56 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.11 | 3.29 | 2.41 | 3.99 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRST's fair value at $42.80 vs the current price of $48.06, implying -10.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.35 (P10) to $45.77 (P90), with a median of $42.50.
TRST's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +4.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover TRST with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRST trades at the 6550th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 260.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.