MODEL VERDICT
Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $31.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $31.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $31.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $31.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $30.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $48.64 | +53.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $54.74 | +72.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $35.72 | +12.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $47.05 | +48.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $56.29 | +77.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $44.31 | +39.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $25.98 | -18.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $31.32 | -1.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $34.70 | +9.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $35.72 | +12.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $47.05 | +48.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.77 | +25.6% | 100% | 92 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Base Case (8.1%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.01 | 32.74 | 29.94 | 39.95 | 3.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.78 | 23.94 | 21.78 | 34.23 | 4.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.94 | 22.86 | 14.77 | 31.64 | 5.13 |
| P/FCF | 26.32 | 25.46 | 20.41 | 31.59 | 3.99 |
| P/FFO | 29.08 | 27.10 | 25.70 | 36.18 | 3.81 |
| P/TBV | 149.76 | 143.11 | 99.93 | 212.88 | 55.83 |
| P/AFFO | 30.83 | 29.10 | 27.66 | 37.43 | 3.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.07 | 6.14 | 4.87 | 7.52 | 0.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.23 | 2.07 | 1.55 | 2.89 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TTEK's fair value at $39.77 vs the current price of $31.67, implying +25.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.04 (P10) to $50.98 (P90), with a median of $45.96.
TTEK's current P/E of 34.1x compares to the industry median of 38.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -11.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
26 analysts cover TTEK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $41.50 (range: $35.00 — $48.00), implying +31.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.8% is 3.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (9.2%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$25. (2) Multiple compression: TTEK trades at the 2690th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TTEK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2200.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.