MODEL VERDICT
TELUS Corporation (TU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $8.52 | -32.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $29.13 | +132.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $23.33 | +85.9% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $7.43 | -40.8% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $21.65 | +72.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $2.72 | -78.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $16.64 | +32.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $8.20 | -34.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.40 | +102.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Base Case (-5.2%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.94 | 19.16 | 13.35 | 30.67 | 5.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.12 | 16.89 | 12.60 | 22.04 | 2.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.62 | 7.64 | 6.70 | 8.28 | 0.57 |
| P/FCF | 154.43 | 20.12 | 8.60 | 706.35 | 308.58 |
| P/FFO | 5.21 | 5.35 | 3.91 | 6.54 | 0.96 |
| P/AFFO | 20.47 | 16.47 | 7.61 | 54.33 | 17.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.53 | 1.20 | 2.84 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.41 | 1.48 | 0.99 | 1.89 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates TU's fair value at $25.40 vs the current price of $12.55, implying +102.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.83 (P10) to $47.96 (P90), with a median of $24.86.
TU's current P/E of 23.7x compares to the industry median of 11.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +100.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover TU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.59 (range: $21.50 — $24.00), implying +80.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TU trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5970.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.