MODEL VERDICT
United Community Banks, Inc. (UCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $33.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $33.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $34.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $33.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $33.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $34.86 | +4.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $41.36 | +23.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $44.31 | +32.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $44.66 | +33.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $34.86 | +4.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $34.47 | +2.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.54 | +15.0% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $24 | $30 | $35 | $40 | $46 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 |
| Base Case (6.5%) | $25 | $31 | $36 | $42 | $47 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $26 | $31 | $37 | $43 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.36 | 13.41 | 11.92 | 19.00 | 2.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.88 | 9.04 | 3.23 | 12.05 | 3.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.04 | 8.34 | 3.25 | 10.65 | 2.78 |
| P/FCF | 12.71 | 12.80 | 6.39 | 18.51 | 4.49 |
| P/FFO | 12.64 | 11.83 | 10.50 | 15.23 | 1.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.65 | 1.57 | 1.42 | 1.90 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 14.99 | 13.12 | 11.36 | 21.53 | 3.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.24 | 1.18 | 1.05 | 1.50 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.33 | 3.40 | 2.47 | 4.42 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates UCB's fair value at $38.54 vs the current price of $33.52, implying +15.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.14 (P10) to $40.46 (P90), with a median of $38.25.
UCB's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -3.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover UCB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $39.50 (range: $39.00 — $40.00), implying +17.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2650.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.