United Homes Group, Inc. (UHG)
Valuation Overview•Is United Homes Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 16/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
UHG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-5.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-0.0%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $123.4M | -12.3% | -5.2% | +4.4% | — | |
| EBITDA | $2.4M | — | -67.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $3.2M | -134.6% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.05 | -131.1% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $448K | -241.4% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 17.6% | 18.0% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| Operating Margin | -0.0% | 1.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% |
| Net Margin | -4.0% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 12.8% |
| FCF Margin | -5.4% | 1.5% | 5.0% | 7.8% |
Total return is -65.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -85.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -23.3% | -30.6% | — |
| 1Y | -65.0% | -85.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -53.1% | -72.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -34.0% | -45.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -18.8% | -32.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about United Homes Group, Inc. (UHG) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, United Homes Group, Inc. appears Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
United Homes Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $0.17. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
United Homes Group, Inc. displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 16/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.8 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -0.0%.
United Homes Group, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
United Homes Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -12.3% 1Y revenue growth and -131.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -5.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for United Homes Group, Inc. include: -77.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.84x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.