MODEL VERDICT
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1019.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $1033.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $1084.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $1006.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $925.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $375.20 | -63.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $689.80 | -32.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $862.72 | -15.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $262.09 | -74.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $657.38 | -35.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $438.38 | -57.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $433.27 | -57.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $149.43 | -85.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $149.80 | -85.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $758.93 | -25.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $260.97 | -74.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $532.74 | -47.8% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 73× | 80× | 87× (Current) | 94× | 101× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $911 | $998 | $1085 | $1173 | $1260 |
| Conservative (10%) | $943 | $1034 | $1124 | $1215 | $1305 |
| Base Case (15.2%) | $989 | $1084 | $1179 | $1273 | $1368 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $1034 | $1134 | $1233 | $1332 | $1431 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.57 | 44.62 | 20.71 | 57.33 | 12.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.98 | 38.07 | 17.37 | 41.48 | 8.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.14 | 36.98 | 16.87 | 39.94 | 8.62 |
| P/FCF | 44.64 | 44.89 | 32.57 | 54.22 | 8.62 |
| P/FFO | 40.24 | 43.03 | 19.90 | 54.35 | 11.45 |
| P/TBV | 137.34 | 140.92 | 50.32 | 220.78 | 85.28 |
| P/AFFO | 42.78 | 46.44 | 20.93 | 56.18 | 12.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 1890.60 | 173.70 | 50.12 | 7164.88 | 3516.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.54 | 10.41 | 4.35 | 14.21 | 3.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UI's fair value at $532.74 vs the current price of $1019.75, implying -47.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $532.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $401.79 (P10) to $602.53 (P90), with a median of $497.09.
UI's current P/E of 86.7x compares to the industry median of 73.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +18.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
21 analysts cover UI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $527.00 (range: $527.00 — $527.00), implying -48.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (10), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UI trades at the 8570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (41.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5900.0% to approximately $418. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.