MODEL VERDICT
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $129.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $122.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $123.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $119.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $120.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $125.13 | -3.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $142.76 | +10.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $126.93 | -1.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $78.86 | -39.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $124.98 | -3.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $148.99 | +15.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $120.86 | -6.5% | 100% | 100 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $95 | $114 | $132 | $151 | $170 |
| Conservative (6%) | $97 | $116 | $135 | $155 | $174 |
| Base Case (9.0%) | $100 | $119 | $139 | $159 | $179 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $102 | $123 | $143 | $164 | $184 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.34 | 12.55 | 9.43 | 14.66 | 1.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.35 | 9.39 | 4.67 | 12.94 | 3.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.03 | 8.52 | 4.10 | 10.98 | 2.98 |
| P/FCF | 12.13 | 10.34 | 5.67 | 27.53 | 7.11 |
| P/FFO | 10.46 | 10.20 | 8.38 | 12.65 | 1.38 |
| P/TBV | 1.57 | 1.64 | 1.21 | 1.78 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 11.82 | 11.54 | 9.38 | 14.81 | 1.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.31 | 1.11 | 1.64 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.57 | 2.57 | 1.82 | 4.16 | 0.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates UMBF's fair value at $120.86 vs the current price of $129.24, implying -6.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $120.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $117.24 (P10) to $132.47 (P90), with a median of $124.80.
UMBF's current P/E of 14.2x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +3.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover UMBF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $150.40 (range: $140.00 — $170.00), implying +16.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (9), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UMBF trades at the 5920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UMBF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1480.0% to approximately $148. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.