MODEL VERDICT
USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $27.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $27.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $18.42 | -33.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $45.08 | +62.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $13.42 | -51.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $37.88 | +36.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $38.43 | +38.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $41.88 | +50.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $35.12 | +26.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $33.57 | +21.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $13.39 | -51.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $37.89 | +36.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.39 | +31.1% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $35 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.98 | 32.72 | 27.06 | 114.15 | 48.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.41 | 20.08 | 8.77 | 25.73 | 5.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.74 | 9.53 | 4.63 | 9.94 | 2.04 |
| P/FCF | 19.89 | 13.54 | 7.07 | 68.89 | 22.13 |
| P/FFO | 7.03 | 7.10 | 6.48 | 7.40 | 0.34 |
| P/TBV | 8.43 | 4.46 | 2.59 | 22.21 | 9.34 |
| P/AFFO | 17.51 | 16.92 | 8.31 | 30.31 | 8.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.11 | 4.11 | 1.06 | 97.18 | 37.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.60 | 2.71 | 1.97 | 2.84 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates USAC's fair value at $36.39 vs the current price of $27.75, implying +31.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.62 (P10) to $43.27 (P90), with a median of $35.67.
USAC's current P/E of 32.6x compares to the industry median of 15.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +106.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 58.0x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover USAC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.50 (range: $25.00 — $30.00), implying -0.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.2% is 4.0 percentage points above the 3-year average (26.9%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$119. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that USAC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (26.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 32800.0% to approximately $119. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.