MODEL VERDICT
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $71.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $73.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $76.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $76.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $76.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $62.75 | -12.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $85.77 | +19.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $30.48 | -57.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $53.56 | -25.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $86.71 | +20.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $70.05 | -2.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $72.81 | +1.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $53.57 | -25.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $30.38 | -57.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $52.00 | -27.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.78 | -4.2% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 | $85 |
| Conservative (5%) | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 | $88 |
| Base Case (-19.1%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $63 | $68 |
| Bull Case (-26%) | $45 | $50 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.48 | 29.40 | 21.28 | 72.77 | 19.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.34 | 22.43 | 19.25 | 24.32 | 1.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.21 | 19.42 | 12.18 | 25.76 | 4.10 |
| P/FCF | 20.22 | 19.43 | 16.71 | 27.91 | 3.68 |
| P/FFO | 32.01 | 31.27 | 19.54 | 43.51 | 8.36 |
| P/TBV | 130.24 | 158.77 | 40.06 | 191.87 | 79.83 |
| P/AFFO | 41.89 | 39.49 | 25.45 | 62.70 | 12.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.55 | 2.17 | 1.54 | 3.84 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.44 | 2.19 | 1.82 | 3.65 | 0.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates USPH's fair value at $68.78 vs the current price of $71.83, implying -4.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.96 (P10) to $83.12 (P90), with a median of $72.89.
USPH's current P/E of 50.6x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +135.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover USPH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $102.00 (range: $102.00 — $102.00), implying +42.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: USPH trades at the 8640th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (39.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that USPH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1210.0% to approximately $80. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.