MODEL VERDICT
Village Super Market, Inc. (VLGEA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $42.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $42.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $41.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $43.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $65.48 | +48.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $91.82 | +108.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $45.83 | +4.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $65.48 | +48.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $56.51 | +28.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $51.55 | +17.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $48.60 | +10.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $49.80 | +13.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $91.82 | +108.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $58.38 | +32.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.12 | +34.3% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $33 | $41 | $49 | $57 | $65 |
| Conservative (11%) | $34 | $42 | $51 | $59 | $68 |
| Base Case (17.3%) | $36 | $45 | $54 | $63 | $72 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $38 | $47 | $57 | $66 | $75 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.67 | 12.66 | 7.76 | 17.07 | 3.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.26 | 10.23 | 6.87 | 18.73 | 4.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.54 | 7.29 | 4.43 | 10.34 | 2.00 |
| P/FCF | 12.96 | 11.72 | 6.42 | 25.74 | 6.25 |
| P/FFO | 5.46 | 5.49 | 4.37 | 6.17 | 0.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 1.04 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 0.06 |
| P/AFFO | 33.10 | 15.22 | 9.56 | 144.89 | 49.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 1.06 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates VLGEA's fair value at $59.12 vs the current price of $44.01, implying +34.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.22 (P10) to $63.58 (P90), with a median of $55.25.
VLGEA's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -52.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for VLGEA.
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 2.4% is 0.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (1.7%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$32. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VLGEA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2710.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.