MODEL VERDICT
Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $18.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $4.90 | -73.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $29.67 | +58.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $11.67 | -37.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $45.85 | +144.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $5.02 | -73.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $47.25 | +151.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $44.61 | +137.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $37.09 | +97.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $10.90 | -41.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $45.62 | +143.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.24 | +39.8% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 18.83 | 16.79 | 15.39 | 24.31 | 4.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.04 | 6.27 | 5.19 | 6.66 | 0.76 |
| P/FCF | 18.54 | 20.73 | 4.47 | 30.41 | 13.11 |
| P/FFO | 7.49 | 6.78 | 4.92 | 10.75 | 2.98 |
| P/TBV | 1.35 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 1.64 | 0.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 1.64 | 0.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.98 | 2.78 | 2.77 | 3.40 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates VTS's fair value at $26.24 vs the current price of $18.77, implying +39.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.20 (P10) to $31.84 (P90), with a median of $25.67.
VTS's current P/E of 29.3x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +60.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover VTS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.50 (range: $28.00 — $29.00), implying +51.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VTS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8730.0% to approximately $35. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.