MODEL VERDICT
Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $18.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $20.00 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $19.91 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $19.57 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $24.64 | +31.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $29.17 | +55.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $16.59 | -11.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $52.05 | +177.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $23.84 | +27.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $42.34 | +125.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $11.53 | -38.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $17.08 | -8.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $16.11 | -14.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $38.50 | +105.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.92 | +43.6% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $19 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates WAY's fair value at $26.92 vs the current price of $18.75, implying +43.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.72 (P10) to $37.40 (P90), with a median of $29.43.
WAY's current P/E of 30.7x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +13.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
17 analysts cover WAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.62 (range: $27.00 — $43.00), implying +90.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WAY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.