MODEL VERDICT
Webster Financial Corporation (WBS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $72.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $71.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $73.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $72.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $71.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $80.95 | +12.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $77.88 | +7.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $63.18 | -12.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $63.12 | -12.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $80.86 | +12.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $75.57 | +4.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.37 | +4.4% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $51 | $64 | $77 | $89 | $102 |
| Conservative (13%) | $54 | $67 | $80 | $94 | $107 |
| Base Case (20.3%) | $57 | $71 | $85 | $100 | $114 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $60 | $75 | $90 | $105 | $120 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.87 | 12.64 | 10.34 | 17.94 | 2.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.77 | 11.18 | 9.50 | 19.34 | 4.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.64 | 10.37 | 9.43 | 16.87 | 3.59 |
| P/FCF | 9.73 | 9.38 | 6.12 | 17.63 | 3.86 |
| P/FFO | 11.14 | 11.18 | 9.32 | 14.40 | 1.69 |
| P/TBV | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.42 | 1.85 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 11.74 | 11.61 | 9.73 | 15.67 | 1.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.18 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.53 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.86 | 2.94 | 2.23 | 3.98 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WBS's fair value at $75.37 vs the current price of $72.22, implying +4.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.33 (P10) to $77.45 (P90), with a median of $72.76.
WBS's current P/E of 12.2x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -10.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
31 analysts cover WBS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $74.33 (range: $70.00 — $77.00), implying +2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WBS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 470.0% to approximately $76. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.