MODEL VERDICT
Weis Markets, Inc. (WMK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $70.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $68.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $71.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $68.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $71.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $130.44 | +83.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $46.18 | -34.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $87.74 | +23.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $4.32 | -93.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $77.99 | +9.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $9.45 | -86.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $111.43 | +57.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $85.48 | +20.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $87.74 | +23.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $4.27 | -94.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.76 | -11.5% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $56 | $63 | $71 | $78 | $86 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $65 | $73 | $80 | $88 |
| Base Case (-3.8%) | $53 | $60 | $67 | $74 | $81 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $52 | $59 | $66 | $73 | $80 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.92 | 16.56 | 10.82 | 17.70 | 2.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.73 | 13.28 | 8.32 | 14.66 | 2.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.01 | 7.35 | 5.17 | 13.45 | 2.61 |
| P/FCF | 71.44 | 23.29 | 8.76 | 341.18 | 120.61 |
| P/FFO | 7.78 | 8.11 | 5.89 | 9.66 | 1.21 |
| P/TBV | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.10 | 1.80 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 33.02 | 20.84 | 14.75 | 102.25 | 31.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.03 | 1.70 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WMK's fair value at $62.76 vs the current price of $70.95, implying -11.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.86 (P10) to $103.85 (P90), with a median of $82.94.
WMK's current P/E of 19.4x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -19.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for WMK.
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WMK trades at the 6250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WMK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 190.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.