MODEL VERDICT
Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $38.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $38.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $40.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $48.29 | +27.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $31.21 | -17.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $47.41 | +24.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $44.88 | +18.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $40.28 | +5.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $90.14 | +137.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $10.94 | -71.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $48.27 | +26.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.18 | +31.9% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $30 | $35 | $40 | $44 | $49 |
| Conservative (9%) | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
| Base Case (14.5%) | $33 | $38 | $43 | $48 | $53 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $34 | $39 | $45 | $50 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.68 | 26.97 | 16.74 | 45.13 | 11.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.10 | 28.11 | 20.09 | 39.18 | 7.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.54 | 19.72 | 14.24 | 25.68 | 4.23 |
| P/FFO | 16.63 | 15.95 | 10.33 | 26.60 | 6.29 |
| P/TBV | 3.51 | 2.81 | 2.39 | 5.12 | 1.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.15 | 2.33 | 1.57 | 2.67 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.64 | 5.48 | 4.35 | 11.39 | 2.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates WTRG's fair value at $50.18 vs the current price of $38.03, implying +31.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.68 (P10) to $53.72 (P90), with a median of $47.95.
WTRG's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 21.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -21.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
18 analysts cover WTRG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $38.00 — $42.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WTRG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5770.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.