MODEL VERDICT
WW International, Inc. (WW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $21.08 | CURRENT | -49.2% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $22.47 | Pending | -36.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $3.59 | -83.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $15.23 | -27.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $282.58 | +1240.5% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1724.88 | 1825.13 | 1125.48 | 2123.78 | 468.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 1158.25 | 744.01 | 652.80 | 2868.92 | 960.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 645.46 | 601.74 | 439.07 | 853.76 | 159.75 |
| P/FCF | 1158.09 | 1011.87 | 658.43 | 1841.53 | 464.97 |
| P/FFO | 1156.83 | 1102.63 | 918.73 | 1503.35 | 280.21 |
| P/AFFO | 1683.82 | 1737.24 | 1139.08 | 2121.74 | 508.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 93.02 | 87.75 | 11.98 | 175.12 | 63.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates WW's fair value at $282.58 vs the current price of $21.08, implying +1240.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $282.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.82 (P10) to $307.36 (P90), with a median of $165.76.
WW's current P/E of -4.9x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -126.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1724.9x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover WW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $34.50 (range: $34.50 — $34.50), implying +63.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.