MODEL VERDICT
Xylem Inc. (XYL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $115.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $121.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $121.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $125.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $121.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $105.06 | -8.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $109.71 | -4.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $118.62 | +2.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $85.13 | -26.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $103.84 | -10.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $89.71 | -22.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $181.69 | +57.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $123.84 | +7.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $111.58 | -3.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $119.13 | +3.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $85.61 | -25.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $115.34 | -0.0% | 100% | 79 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $107 | $116 | $124 | $133 | $141 |
| Conservative (15%) | $113 | $122 | $131 | $140 | $149 |
| Base Case (22.9%) | $120 | $130 | $140 | $149 | $159 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $128 | $139 | $149 | $159 | $169 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.19 | 40.99 | 31.79 | 72.71 | 14.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.37 | 38.48 | 25.87 | 54.44 | 9.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.86 | 24.19 | 18.62 | 31.89 | 4.81 |
| P/FCF | 40.02 | 36.51 | 23.29 | 65.97 | 14.96 |
| P/FFO | 27.07 | 23.88 | 19.46 | 36.50 | 6.95 |
| P/TBV | 166.30 | 54.02 | 29.02 | 415.85 | 216.48 |
| P/AFFO | 39.19 | 33.05 | 24.98 | 57.25 | 12.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.48 | 4.81 | 2.45 | 6.75 | 1.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.53 | 3.62 | 2.72 | 4.19 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates XYL's fair value at $115.34 vs the current price of $115.37, implying -0.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $115.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $113.69 (P10) to $134.60 (P90), with a median of $124.08.
XYL's current P/E of 29.4x compares to the industry median of 30.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -2.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
40 analysts cover XYL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $151.57 (range: $133.00 — $161.00), implying +31.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (21), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 10.7% is 3.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.4%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$176. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that XYL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5220.0% to approximately $176. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.