MODEL VERDICT
ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited (ZK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $26.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $26.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $26.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $26.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $26.73 | Pending | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $82.36 | +208.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $86.01 | +221.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $65.75 | +146.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $500.21 | +1771.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $403.15 | +1408.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $85.27 | +219.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $134.65 | +403.8% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZK's fair value at $134.65 vs the current price of $26.73, implying +403.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $134.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.32 (P10) to $190.21 (P90), with a median of $136.49.
ZK's current P/E of -1.0x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -105.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover ZK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.25 (range: $26.00 — $38.00), implying +24.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.