MODEL VERDICT
Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $24.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $24.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $24.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $24.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $10.46 | -57.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $21.63 | -11.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $12.70 | -47.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $37.84 | +55.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $9.70 | -60.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $50.20 | +106.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $50.86 | +108.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $44.36 | +82.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $12.43 | -49.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $36.39 | +49.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.95 | +6.5% | 100% | 77 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Base Case (-23.6%) | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Bull Case (-32%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.77 | 13.18 | 9.89 | 33.40 | 9.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.65 | 12.92 | 8.43 | 230.67 | 97.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.69 | 10.94 | 7.36 | 30.56 | 8.65 |
| P/FCF | 19.84 | 9.90 | 7.22 | 63.66 | 24.52 |
| P/FFO | 11.31 | 9.74 | 8.30 | 17.74 | 3.53 |
| P/TBV | 1.77 | 1.53 | 1.21 | 2.98 | 0.67 |
| P/AFFO | 14.60 | 12.69 | 9.33 | 24.80 | 5.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.53 | 1.39 | 1.04 | 2.52 | 0.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.65 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 1.00 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZUMZ's fair value at $25.95 vs the current price of $24.37, implying +6.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.94 (P10) to $37.44 (P90), with a median of $28.71.
ZUMZ's current P/E of 31.2x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +91.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.8x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover ZUMZ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.50 (range: $19.00 — $20.00), implying -20.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (21), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ZUMZ trades at the 6880th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ZUMZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5960.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.