SMG vs ICL vs MOS vs NTR

For growth investors, Nutrien Ltd.

(NTR) is the stronger pick with 5. 3% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -3. 9% for The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG). The Mosaic Company (MOS) offers the better valuation at 5. 7x trailing P/E (15. 9x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) a "Buy" — based on 17 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.

On trailing P/E, The Mosaic Company (MOS) is the cheapest at 5.

7x versus ICL Group Ltd at 35. 4x. On forward P/E, Nutrien Ltd. is actually cheaper at 11. 7x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Nutrien Ltd. wins at 0. 29x versus The Mosaic Company's 0. 92x — a PEG below 1. 0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.

Over the past 5 years, Nutrien Ltd.

(NTR) delivered a total return of +27. 4%, compared to -69. 3% for The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: ICL returned +107. 2% versus MOS's +12. 0%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.

By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Nutrien Ltd.

(NTR) is the lower-risk stock at -0. 08β versus The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's 1. 12β — meaning SMG is approximately -1576% more volatile than NTR relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, The Mosaic Company (MOS) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 6% versus 51% for Nutrien Ltd. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.

By revenue growth (latest reported year), Nutrien Ltd.

(NTR) is pulling ahead at 5. 3% versus -3. 9% for The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: The Mosaic Company grew EPS 605. 5% year-over-year, compared to -43. 8% for ICL Group Ltd. Over a 3-year CAGR, SMG leads at -4. 5% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is the more profitable company, earning 10.

5% net margin versus 3. 2% for ICL Group Ltd — meaning it keeps 10. 5% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: NTR leads at 14. 5% versus 9. 8% for ICL. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — NTR leads at 31. 0%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.

The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential.

By this metric, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0. 29x versus The Mosaic Company's 0. 92x. A PEG below 1. 0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) trades at 11. 7x forward P/E versus 16. 6x for ICL Group Ltd — 4. 8x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for MOS: 40. 8% to $31. 25.

All stocks in this comparison pay dividends.

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) offers the highest yield at 4. 3%, versus 2. 7% for ICL Group Ltd (ICL).

For long-horizon retirement investors, Nutrien Ltd.

(NTR) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β -0. 08), 3. 2% yield). Both have compounded well over 10 years (NTR: +54. 0%, SMG: +33. 0%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.

Both stocks operate in the Basic Materials sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.

In terms of investment character: SMG is a small-cap income-oriented stock; ICL is a small-cap quality compounder stock; MOS is a small-cap deep-value stock; NTR is a mid-cap deep-value stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.