The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Valuation Overview•Is The Mosaic Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 38/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
MOS struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-14.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (3.7%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.0B | +8.4% | -14.3% | +6.8% | +3.1% | |
| EBITDA | -$372.9M | — | -26.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$257.6M | +209.1% | -46.8% | — | -6.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.81 | +209.1% | -44.7% | -0.6% | -4.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$252.6M | -1227.8% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 13.9% | 14.9% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| Operating Margin | 3.7% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 8.2% |
| Net Margin | 6.0% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| FCF Margin | -4.1% | 1.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.24 | $0.05 | -79.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.48 | $0.22 | -54.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.97 | $1.04 | +7.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.67 | $0.51 | -23.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.45 | $0.49 | +9.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.53 | $0.45 | -15.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.54 | $0.34 | -37.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.68 | $0.54 | -20.6% |
Total return is -34.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -59.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -6.7% | -16.0% | — |
| 1Y | -34.7% | -59.7% | +2.4% |
| 3YCAGR | -9.9% | -29.9% | +7.4% |
| 5YCAGR | -2.2% | -15.2% | +13.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +0.6% | -13.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about The Mosaic Company (MOS) valuation, health, and returns.
The Mosaic Company is estimated to be fairly valued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $0.00)
The Mosaic Company has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $0.00 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $18.32 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $28.00 (implying +22.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
The Mosaic Company displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 38/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.8%.
The Mosaic Company pays a 3.8% dividend yield, covered by a 52% payout ratio with 7 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
The Mosaic Company's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +8.4% 1Y revenue growth and +209.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -14.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 49 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +22.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for The Mosaic Company include: -47.6% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.73x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.