ZTO vs ODFL

For growth investors, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

(ZTO) is the stronger pick with 15. 3% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -5. 5% for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL). ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) offers the better valuation at 16. 1x trailing P/E (1. 9x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) a "Buy" — based on 10 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.

On trailing P/E, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

(ZTO) is the cheapest at 16. 1x versus Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. at 41. 0x. On forward P/E, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is actually cheaper at 1. 9x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. wins at 0. 23x versus Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 's 3. 36x — a PEG below 1. 0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.

Over the past 5 years, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

(ODFL) delivered a total return of +50. 0%, compared to -12. 5% for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: ODFL returned +841. 8% versus ZTO's +74. 6%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.

By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

(ZTO) is the lower-risk stock at 0. 36β versus Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 's 1. 38β — meaning ODFL is approximately 279% more volatile than ZTO relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 3% versus 28% for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.

By revenue growth (latest reported year), ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

(ZTO) is pulling ahead at 15. 3% versus -5. 5% for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. grew EPS 0. 9% year-over-year, compared to -11. 9% for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.. Over a 3-year CAGR, ZTO leads at 13. 3% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

(ZTO) is the more profitable company, earning 19. 9% net margin versus 18. 6% for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. — meaning it keeps 19. 9% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: ZTO leads at 26. 6% versus 24. 8% for ODFL. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — ODFL leads at 32. 2%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.

The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential.

By this metric, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0. 23x versus Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 's 3. 36x. A PEG below 1. 0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) trades at 1. 9x forward P/E versus 37. 7x for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. — 35. 8x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for ODFL: 5. 1% to $208. 19.

All stocks in this comparison pay dividends.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) offers the highest yield at 3. 9%, versus 0. 6% for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL).

For long-horizon retirement investors, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

(ZTO) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0. 36), 3. 9% yield). Both have compounded well over 10 years (ZTO: +74. 6%, ODFL: +841. 8%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.

Both stocks operate in the Industrials sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.

In terms of investment character: ZTO is a mid-cap high-growth stock; ODFL is a mid-cap quality compounder stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.