Upside case
Bull case
$149-46.8%
The bull case prices APD at 11x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering APD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
19
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$326
+16.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$71 – $149
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $62.4B
APD price targets
Three scenarios for where APD stock could go
Current
~$280
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $280
Bear
$71
Base
$113
Bull
$149
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$113-59.6%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$71-74.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push APD down roughly 75% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
APD · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySeptember year-end
Air Products and Chemicals is a global industrial gases company that produces and sells atmospheric gases, process gases, and specialty gases along with related equipment and services. It generates revenue primarily through long-term on-site supply contracts with industrial customers — often taking equity stakes in customer projects — supplemented by merchant gas sales and equipment sales. The company's moat comes from its massive capital-intensive production facilities, extensive pipeline networks, and long-term contracts that create high switching costs for industrial customers.
Market Cap
$62.4B
Revenue TTM
$12.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
16.9%
APD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.09/$2.99
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.39/$3.38
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.16/$3.04
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.20/$3.06
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.09/$2.99 | +3.3% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.39/$3.38 | +0.3% | $3.2B/$3.2B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.16/$3.04 | +3.9% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.20/$3.06 | +4.6% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +3.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.7B
+2.0% YoY
FY2
$13.2B
+3.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.76
+13.8% YoY
FY2
$11.32
+5.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 8.9%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.35
Expected Revenue
$3.2B
APD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
APD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
On-site
51.3%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas Segment
44.5%
+1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
On-site is the largest disclosed segment at 51.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.9% YoY.
Americas Segment is the largest reported region at 44.5%, up 1.7% YoY.
APD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $187 — implies -33.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APD
-158.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
748% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
APD
-158.3x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
771% discount
vs APD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-158.3x
vs
5Y Average
24.0x
760% discount
Forward PE
21.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+13%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+43%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-158.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-748%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-771%
5Y Avg
24.0x
-760%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
114.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+655%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+943%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+612%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Basic Materials
29.0x
—
5Y Avg
117.7x
—
Price/Sales
5.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+68%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+175%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+3%
Dividend Yield
2.54%
S&P 500
1.91%
+33%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+80%
5Y Avg
2.44%
+4%
| Metric | APD | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg APD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.2x | 18.8x+13% | 14.9x+43% | — |
| Trailing PE | -158.3x | 24.4x-748% | 23.6x-771% | 24.0x-760% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 114.9x | 15.2x+655% | 11.0x+943% | 16.1x+612% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 29.0x | 117.7x |
| Price/Sales | 5.2x | 3.1x+68% | 1.9x+175% | 5.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 2.44% |
APD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
APD generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 8.9% margin — returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-2.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
14.9× FCF
~14.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-2.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
2.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.11
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
223M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAPD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Financial Strain
High-risk, long-term hydrogen projects are causing financial strain despite a strong core business.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Risks
The company disclosed 19 risk factors, with the most significant risks falling under legal and regulatory categories.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Stock analysis reveals a mixed outlook, with potential downside risks despite a Buy rating and consensus target.
Lower
Industry Position
As a dominant player in specialty chemicals, the company's cohesive ecosystem provides some stability against risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong hydrogen project pipeline
APD is in advanced talks for major hydrogen and ammonia projects in the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, including an $8-9 billion Louisiana complex targeting completion by 2030.
Attractive valuation metrics
APD's forward P/E of 20.58 suggests reasonable valuation compared to its trailing P/E of 38.38, indicating potential earnings growth.
Confirmed earnings guidance
The company reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance despite helium-related pressures, showing confidence in its financial outlook.
Strategic hydrogen investments
APD's significant investments in hydrogen projects position it well for the energy transition and future growth opportunities.
Wall Street research coverage
Investment memos and bull cases are being published on APD, including DCF analysis and price targets, indicating analyst interest and potential upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$280.21
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$229.11
+22.3% from the low
52-Week High
$307.96
-9.0% from the high
1 Month
-4.47%
3 Month
-0.43%
YTD
+11.9%
1 Year
+1.8%
3Y CAGR
-1.1%
5Y CAGR
-0.9%
10Y CAGR
+7.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.2x
vs 11.4x median
+87% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.0%
vs +4.0% median
-50% below peer median
Net Margin
16.9%
vs 4.6% median
+266% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APD APD Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $62.4B | 21.2x | +2.0% | 16.9% | Buy | +16.2% |
LIN LIN Linde plc | $237.3B | 28.6x | +4.0% | 20.6% | Buy | +9.8% |
ALB ALB Albemarle Corporation | $18.9B | 13.2x | +5.7% | -4.2% | Hold | +30.8% |
PX PX P10, Inc. | $909M | 6.9x | +15.0% | 17.3% | Buy | +231.1% |
EMN EMN Eastman Chemical Company | $8.3B | 11.4x | +0.1% | 4.6% | Buy | +10.2% |
CE CE Celanese Corporation | $5.7B | 8.3x | +2.7% | -10.8% | Hold | +28.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APD Dividend and Capital Return
APD returns 2.5% total yield, led by a 2.54% dividend, raised 43 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.54%
Payout Ratio
—
How APD Splits Its Return
Div 2.54%
Dividend 2.54%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.11
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
43Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.3%
5Y Div CAGR
5.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
223M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.41 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.14 | +34.5% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $5.31 | -24.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $7.00 | +8.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $6.48 | +8.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsAPD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $326, implying +16.2% from the current price of $280. The bear case scenario is $71 and the bull case is $149.
02What is the APD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APD is $326 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $360 (+28.5% from today), and the low-end target is $285 (+1.7%). The base case model target is $113.
03Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) stock overvalued in 2026?
APD trades at 21.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APD in 2026 are: (1) Financial Strain — High-risk, long-term hydrogen projects are causing financial strain despite a strong core business. (2) Legal & Regulatory Risks — The company disclosed 19 risk factors, with the most significant risks falling under legal and regulatory categories. (3) Market Sentiment — Stock analysis reveals a mixed outlook, with potential downside risks despite a Buy rating and consensus target. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APD will report consensus revenue of $12.7B (+2.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.76 (+13.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.2B in revenue.
06When does Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) report its next earnings?
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $3.35 and revenue of $3.2B. Over recent quarters, APD has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. generate?
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. APD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).