Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing APD more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering APD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
19
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$313
+2.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $67.7B
APD price targets
Three scenarios for where APD stock could go
Current
~$304
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
APD · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySeptember year-end
Air Products and Chemicals is a global industrial gases company that produces and sells atmospheric gases, process gases, and specialty gases along with related equipment and services. It generates revenue primarily through long-term on-site supply contracts with industrial customers — often taking equity stakes in customer projects — supplemented by merchant gas sales and equipment sales. The company's moat comes from its massive capital-intensive production facilities, extensive pipeline networks, and long-term contracts that create high switching costs for industrial customers.
Market Cap
$67.7B
Revenue TTM
$12.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
16.9%
APD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.09/$2.99
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.39/$3.38
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.16/$3.04
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.20/$3.06
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.09/$2.99 | +3.3% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.39/$3.38 | +0.3% | $3.2B/$3.2B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.16/$3.04 | +3.9% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.20/$3.06 | +4.6% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +3.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.6B
+0.9% YoY
FY2
$12.9B
+2.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.52
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$10.16
-3.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 8.9%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.04
Expected Revenue
$3.1B
APD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
APD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
On-site
51.3%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas Segment
44.5%
+1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
On-site is the largest disclosed segment at 51.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.9% YoY.
Americas Segment is the largest reported region at 44.5%, up 1.7% YoY.
APD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $248 — implies -17.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
17.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APD
-171.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
784% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
APD
-171.7x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
871% discount
vs APD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-171.7x
vs
5Y Average
24.0x
815% discount
Forward PE
23.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+21%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+52%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-171.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-784%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-871%
5Y Avg
24.0x
-815%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Basic Materials
1.17x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
122.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+705%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+1017%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+660%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Basic Materials
25.6x
—
5Y Avg
117.7x
—
Price/Sales
5.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+80%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+197%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+12%
Dividend Yield
2.34%
S&P 500
1.87%
+25%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+77%
5Y Avg
2.44%
-4%
| Metric | APD | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg APD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.1x | 19.1x+21% | 15.2x+52% | — |
| Trailing PE | -171.7x | 25.1x-784% | 22.3x-871% | 24.0x-815% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 122.6x | 15.2x+705% | 11.0x+1017% | 16.1x+660% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 25.6x | 117.7x |
| Price/Sales | 5.6x | 3.1x+80% | 1.9x+197% | 5.0x+12% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.34% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 2.44% |
APD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
APD generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 8.9% margin — returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-2.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
14.9× FCF
~14.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-2.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
2.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.11
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
223M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAPD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory
Legal and regulatory issues represent the largest risk category for APD, accounting for 26% of identified risks (5 out of 19). Potential regulatory fines, compliance costs, and project delays could materially affect earnings and cash flow.
High Risk
Geopolitical & Environmental
APD operates in multiple jurisdictions with extensive government regulation and faces risks from natural disasters, pandemics, and international operations. These events can disrupt supply chains, increase operating costs, and delay project execution.
High Risk
Financial Health
The company shows weak financial health scores, a declining return on invested capital (ROIC), and a low Piotroski Score, indicating limited financial strength and potential difficulty financing growth or weathering downturns.
High Risk
Operational & Financial Headwinds
Recent project cancellations and market weakness in certain segments have led to mixed financial results, with APD missing earnings expectations and reducing forecasts. Delays and cost overruns on other projects further strain profitability.
Medium
Cost Fluctuations
Energy—including electricity and natural gas—is a major cost component for APD. Inflation and energy price volatility can impact revenues and earnings, especially if cost increases cannot be passed on to customers.
Medium
Competition
APD operates in a highly competitive industrial gases market, where rivals can pressure margins and erode profitability. Intense price competition may limit the company’s ability to maintain healthy margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Core Industrial Gas Business
Air Products’ core industrial gas segment remains stable and profitable, supplying essential gases across diverse industries. Recent results show productivity gains and an uptick in operating income within the base business, underscoring its resilience.
Clean Hydrogen Leadership
The company is a first‑mover in the clean hydrogen space, with the NEOM green ammonia project in Saudi Arabia progressing well. This flagship project is positioned to drive long‑term growth and support global decarbonization efforts.
Capital Discipline and Efficiency
Management is shifting toward tighter capital allocation, aiming for higher returns and stronger cash discipline. A projected decline in capital expenditures is expected once major builds conclude, which should bolster free cash flow.
Dividend Growth Commitment
Air Products has a track record of increasing its dividend, demonstrating a clear commitment to returning value to shareholders. This dividend growth trend signals financial strength and shareholder‑friendly governance.
Analyst Consensus
A majority of analysts recommend a “Buy” or “Moderate Buy” for APD, reflecting positive market sentiment. The consensus rating supports the view that the stock is poised for appreciation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$303.93
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$229.11
+32.7% from the low
52-Week High
$307.29
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+3.34%
3 Month
+7.21%
YTD
+21.3%
1 Year
+11.7%
3Y CAGR
+0.8%
5Y CAGR
+0.8%
10Y CAGR
+8.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.1x
vs 13.1x median
+77% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.9%
vs +0.0% median
+1756% above peer median
Net Margin
16.9%
vs -3.1% median
+652% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APD APD Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $67.7B | 23.1x | +0.9% | 16.9% | Buy | +2.9% |
LIN LIN Linde plc | $231.9B | 28.0x | +2.7% | 20.6% | Buy | +7.9% |
ALB ALB Albemarle Corporation | $22.9B | 22.0x | -13.1% | -10.7% | Hold | -2.1% |
PX PX P10, Inc. | $909M | 6.9x | +22.0% | — | Buy | +231.1% |
EMN EMN Eastman Chemical Company | $8.8B | 13.1x | -2.4% | 4.6% | Buy | 0.0% |
CE CE Celanese Corporation | $7.7B | 12.3x | +0.0% | -10.8% | Hold | -5.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APD Dividend and Capital Return
APD returns 2.3% total yield, led by a 2.34% dividend, raised 29 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.34%
Payout Ratio
—
How APD Splits Its Return
Div 2.34%
Dividend 2.34%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.11
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
29Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.3%
5Y Div CAGR
5.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
223M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.14 | +34.5% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $5.31 | -24.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $7.00 | +8.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $6.48 | +8.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsAPD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $313, implying +2.9% from the current price of $304.
02What is the APD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APD is $313 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $360 (+18.4% from today), and the low-end target is $255 (-16.1%).
03Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) stock overvalued in 2026?
APD trades at 23.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APD in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory — Legal and regulatory issues represent the largest risk category for APD, accounting for 26% of identified risks (5 out of 19). (2) Geopolitical & Environmental — APD operates in multiple jurisdictions with extensive government regulation and faces risks from natural disasters, pandemics, and international operations. (3) Financial Health — The company shows weak financial health scores, a declining return on invested capital (ROIC), and a low Piotroski Score, indicating limited financial strength and potential difficulty financing growth or weathering downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APD will report consensus revenue of $12.6B (+0.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.52 (+11.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.9B in revenue.
06When does Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) report its next earnings?
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $3.04 and revenue of $3.1B. Over recent quarters, APD has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. generate?
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. APD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).