Upside case
Bull case
$2053+311.5%
APP would need investors to value it at roughly 130x earnings — about 99x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
AppLovin Corporation (APP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
23 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering APP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
2
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$650
+30.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$56 – $2053
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
31.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $167.8B
APP price targets
Three scenarios for where APP stock could go
Current
~$499
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $499
Bear
$56
Base
$886
Bull
$2053
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$886+77.7%
At 56x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$56-88.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 28x multiple contraction could push APP down roughly 89% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AppLovin Corporation
APP · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
AppLovin operates a software platform that helps mobile app developers market and monetize their apps through advertising technology. It generates revenue primarily from its software platform segment — which includes marketing solutions like AppDiscovery and analytics tools like Adjust — accounting for roughly 80% of total revenue, with the remainder coming from its apps segment. The company's key advantage is its AI-powered advertising engine that optimizes ad placements across its vast network of mobile apps, creating a data-driven flywheel effect.
Market Cap
$167.8B
Revenue TTM
$6.2B
Net Income TTM
$4.0B
Net Margin
64.3%
APP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+36.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.26/$1.96
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.45/$2.38
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.24/$2.95
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.56/$3.44
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.26/$1.96 | +15.3% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.45/$2.38 | +2.9% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.24/$2.95 | +9.8% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.56/$3.44 | +3.5% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.8B
+27.0% YoY
FY2
$9.7B
+24.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.99
+19.6% YoY
FY2
$17.32
+23.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 71.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
APP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
APP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
51.6%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 51.6%, up 5.1% YoY.
APP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $462 — implies +0.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
0.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APP
51.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+104% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
APP
51.2x
vs
Technology
27.7x
+85% premium
vs APP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
51.2x
vs
5Y Average
60.4x
15% discount
Forward PE
31.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+66%
Technology
21.8x
+45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
51.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
+104%
Technology
27.7x
+85%
5Y Avg
60.4x
-15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.70x
—
Technology
1.48x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
38.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+153%
Technology
17.5x
+123%
5Y Avg
37.8x
+3%
Price/FCF
42.5x
S&P 500
21.4x
+99%
Technology
19.2x
+121%
5Y Avg
45.0x
-5%
Price/Sales
30.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+893%
Technology
2.4x
+1158%
5Y Avg
16.7x
+84%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.90%
—
Technology
1.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | APP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg APP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 31.7x | 19.1x+66% | 21.8x+45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 51.2x | 25.1x+104% | 27.7x+85% | 60.4x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.70x | 1.48x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.8x | 15.3x+153% | 17.5x+123% | 37.8x |
| Price/FCF | 42.5x | 21.4x+99% | 19.2x+121% | 45.0x |
| Price/Sales | 30.6x | 3.1x+893% | 2.4x+1158% | 16.7x+84% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.90% | 1.17% | — |
APP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
APP generates $4.4B in free cash flow at a 71.4% margin — 87.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+40.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
88.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
77.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
64.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.70
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
71.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
87.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
58.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
222.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (87.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
336M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAPP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
SEC Investigation & Penalties
AppLovin is under an SEC probe over its AI growth targets and AXON 2.0 platform. A negative outcome could trigger financial penalties, force changes to its AI strategy, or damage its reputation, eroding competitive advantage and growth prospects.
High Risk
Historical Price Drops
APP has experienced sharp declines, including a nearly 92% drop and over 30% falls in short periods. Recent year‑to‑date declines in 2026 further illustrate its susceptibility to sudden, substantial price swings.
Medium
High P/E & Compression Risk
The company trades at a high P/E ratio amid regulatory scrutiny, raising the possibility of significant multiple compression. Analysts suggest the current price may already fully price in early‑stage growth catalysts, creating expectation risk.
Medium
Executive Sell‑offs
Key executives, including the CEO, sold shares in early 2026 at prices above the then‑current market level, with no reported insider purchases. This activity could signal management’s lack of confidence in future upside.
Medium
Platform Rollout & Rivalry
AppLovin’s new self‑service platform and entry into e‑commerce ads are still nascent, while competition from Meta and other tech giants intensifies. Failure to execute or lose market share could hurt revenue growth.
Medium
E‑commerce & EBITDA Uncertainty
While revenue growth and EBITDA margins have expanded, the nascent e‑commerce segment lacks clear guidance, and the ad optimizer’s opacity raises doubts about the sustainability of margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI‑Powered Adtech Transformation
Applovin has pivoted to a pure‑play AI‑driven advertising platform with its proprietary Axon 2.0 engine. The system predicts user behavior and ad engagement with high precision, enabling developers to monetize apps more efficiently. This AI dominance positions Applovin as a disruptor rather than a victim of AI.
Record Revenue Growth & Profitability
Fiscal 2025 saw a 70% year‑over‑year revenue increase and net income surged 111%. Software Platform revenue hit $1.26 billion in Q2 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 81%, rising to 84% in Q4 2025 when revenue reached $1.657 billion.
Dominant Market Position
Applovin is a top‑tier adtech platform, often ranked just behind Google and Meta, and has gained strong retention and market share in gaming and e‑commerce segments. This positioning gives it a competitive moat in high‑growth verticals.
Exceptional Free Cash Flow & Margins
The company’s free cash flow has grown at a 3‑year CAGR of 114.48%, and its net profit margin stands at 57.41%, placing it in the top 10% of the industry.
High‑Accuracy AI Targeting
Axon 2.0 delivers superior ad targeting and optimization, leading to better returns for advertisers. This capability differentiates Applovin and drives higher client spend and retention.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$498.87
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$292.87
+70.3% from the low
52-Week High
$745.61
-33.1% from the high
1 Month
+21.55%
3 Month
+8.36%
YTD
-19.3%
1 Year
+64.4%
3Y CAGR
+204.8%
5Y CAGR
+54.2%
10Y CAGR
+22.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
31.7x
vs 20.9x median
+52% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+27.0%
vs +14.7% median
+84% above peer median
Net Margin
64.3%
vs 7.9% median
+713% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APP APP AppLovin Corporation | $167.8B | 31.7x | +27.0% | 64.3% | Buy | +30.3% |
MGN MGNI Magnite, Inc. | $2.0B | 13.4x | +8.8% | 22.0% | Buy | +28.6% |
IAS IAS Integral Ad Science Holding Corp. | $1.7B | 27.5x | +15.1% | 7.9% | Buy | +38.2% |
DV DV DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | $1.8B | 20.5x | +14.7% | 7.2% | Buy | +39.2% |
TTD TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. | $11.2B | 21.2x | +15.8% | 14.6% | Buy | +58.0% |
PUB PUBM PubMatic, Inc. | $485M | — | +2.3% | -6.2% | Buy | +36.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APP Dividend and Capital Return
APP returns 1.3% annually — null% through dividends and 1.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
336M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsAPP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AppLovin Corporation (APP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AppLovin Corporation (APP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $650, implying +30.3% from the current price of $499. The bear case scenario is $56 and the bull case is $2053.
02What is the APP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APP is $650 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $835 (+67.4% from today), and the low-end target is $340 (-31.8%). The base case model target is $886.
03Is AppLovin Corporation (APP) stock overvalued in 2026?
APP trades at 31.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AppLovin Corporation (APP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APP in 2026 are: (1) SEC Investigation & Penalties — AppLovin is under an SEC probe over its AI growth targets and AXON 2. (2) Historical Price Drops — APP has experienced sharp declines, including a nearly 92% drop and over 30% falls in short periods. (3) High P/E & Compression Risk — The company trades at a high P/E ratio amid regulatory scrutiny, raising the possibility of significant multiple compression. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AppLovin Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APP will report consensus revenue of $7.8B (+27.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.99 (+19.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.7B in revenue.
06When does AppLovin Corporation (APP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for APP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does AppLovin Corporation generate?
AppLovin Corporation (APP) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 71.4%. APP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.2B TTM).