Upside case
Bull case
$87+255.3%
TTD would need investors to value it at roughly 79x earnings — about 57x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
25 bullish · 3 bearish · 46 covering TTD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
18
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$37
+50.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$17 – $87
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.7B
TTD price targets
Three scenarios for where TTD stock could go
Current
~$25
Confidence
79 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $25
Bear
$17
Base
$39
Bull
$87
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$39+57.5%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$17-31.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push TTD down roughly 32% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Trade Desk, Inc.
TTD · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
The Trade Desk operates a cloud-based platform that enables advertisers to programmatically buy and manage digital ad campaigns across channels like connected TV, display, and video. It generates revenue primarily from platform fees—typically a percentage of media spend—with nearly all income coming from its core self-service advertising platform. Its key advantage is its independent, transparent position in the ad tech ecosystem—unlike walled gardens—which attracts major agencies and brands seeking unbiased campaign optimization.
Market Cap
$11.7B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$443M
Net Margin
15.3%
TTD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.10/$0.14
Revenue
$616M/$575M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.18/$0.18
Revenue
$694M/$685M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.45/$0.20
Revenue
$739M/$719M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.34
Revenue
$847M/$841M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.10/$0.14 | -27.4% | $616M/$575M | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.18/$0.18 | +1.4% | $694M/$685M | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.45/$0.20 | +123.9% | $739M/$719M | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.34 | +15.1% | $847M/$841M | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+15.8% YoY
FY2
$4.0B
+18.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.14
+24.3% YoY
FY2
$1.43
+25.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$787M
FCF Margin: 27.2%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.32
Expected Revenue
$679M
TTD beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TTD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
85.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 85.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
TTD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $72 — implies +197.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
197.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TTD
27.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+8% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TTD
27.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
In line with benchmark
vs TTD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.0x
vs
5Y Average
130.8x
79% discount
Forward PE
22.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Technology
22.1x
+0%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+8%
Technology
26.7x
+1%
5Y Avg
130.8x
-79%
PEG Ratio
2.05x
S&P 500
1.72x
+20%
Technology
1.52x
+35%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+7%
Technology
17.5x
-7%
5Y Avg
25.7x
-37%
Price/FCF
14.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-30%
Technology
19.5x
-25%
5Y Avg
75.0x
-80%
Price/Sales
4.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+29%
Technology
2.4x
+66%
5Y Avg
20.3x
-80%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TTD | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.2x | 19.1x+16% | 22.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.0x | 25.1x | 26.7x | 130.8x-79% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.05x | 1.72x+20% | 1.52x+35% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3x | 15.2x | 17.5x | 25.7x-37% |
| Price/FCF | 14.7x | 21.1x-30% | 19.5x-25% | 75.0x-80% |
| Price/Sales | 4.0x | 3.1x+29% | 2.4x+66% | 20.3x-80% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
TTD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTTD Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TTD generates $787M in free cash flow at a 27.2% margin — 21.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 11.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
78.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.92
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$787M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$658M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$222M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
11.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
476M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTTD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Intensifying Competition
TTD faces significant competition from major platforms like Google and Amazon, which utilize first-party data to offer advertisers enhanced control and attribution. Amazon's DSP is reportedly using aggressive pricing strategies, while Yahoo is developing its own AI-driven DSP targeting TTD's mid-market.
High Risk
Revenue Deceleration
TTD has experienced a notable deceleration in revenue growth, with Q1 2026 guidance projecting only 10% year-over-year growth, a significant drop from previous periods. This slowdown has raised concerns among investors regarding the company's future performance.
High Risk
Loss of Agencies and Advertisers
The loss of advertising agencies and advertisers, which form TTD's primary client base, could severely impact the business. If advertisers switch agencies, revenue could decline if the new agency does not utilize TTD's platform.
High Risk
Regulatory Scrutiny
Ad-tech companies like TTD are increasingly facing regulatory scrutiny, which could include new rules or fee caps on programmatic advertising transactions. This scrutiny poses risks to TTD's operational model and financial performance.
Medium
Shifting Advertiser Budgets
Macroeconomic factors such as inflation and tariffs may lead large brands to cut advertising budgets, directly affecting TTD's revenue. Additionally, advertisers are increasingly directing budgets to walled gardens due to perceived better pricing and attribution.
Medium
Platform Rollout Issues
Slower-than-anticipated rollouts of key platforms, such as Kokai, have been identified as execution missteps that could contribute to revenue misses. Delays in platform launches can hinder TTD's competitive positioning.
Medium
Internal Execution Risks
TTD faces internal execution risks related to strategy, culture, and go-to-market execution, particularly during critical product transitions. These risks could impact operational efficiency and overall business performance.
Lower
Executive Departures
Recent departures of senior executives have raised concerns about TTD's strategic direction and execution capabilities. Such changes in leadership can lead to uncertainty and potential disruptions in business operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TTD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominance in Programmatic Advertising
The Trade Desk is a leader in the independent demand-side platform (DSP) space, allowing advertisers to buy digital ad inventory programmatically across various formats and channels. This leadership offers sophisticated targeting and optimization capabilities that enhance advertising effectiveness.
Explosive Growth in Connected TV (CTV)
CTV advertising is a major growth driver for TTD, as more viewers shift to streaming services. The Trade Desk's platform is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market due to its advanced data and targeting solutions.
Data-Driven Advantage
TTD leverages proprietary data and partnerships to provide advertisers with unparalleled insights and targeting precision. This data-centric approach is crucial in an increasingly fragmented digital advertising landscape.
Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) Initiative
The company is a key proponent of Unified ID 2.0, an open-source identity solution designed to be a privacy-conscious alternative to third-party cookies. This positions TTD favorably as cookie-based tracking is phased out.
Strong Financial Performance
The Trade Desk has a history of consistent revenue growth and improving profitability, demonstrating its ability to scale effectively in a competitive market.
Diversification Beyond Traditional Digital
TTD is expanding its reach into areas like audio and retail media, further broadening its addressable market beyond just display and video.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TTD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.61
52W Range Position
7%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.74
+24.7% from the low
52-Week High
$91.45
-73.1% from the high
1 Month
+10.81%
3 Month
-6.21%
YTD
-34.7%
1 Year
-55.7%
3Y CAGR
-26.8%
5Y CAGR
-17.4%
10Y CAGR
+23.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TTD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.2x
vs 17.4x median
+28% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.8%
vs +9.1% median
+73% above peer median
Net Margin
15.3%
vs 7.4% median
+108% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TTD TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. | $11.7B | 22.2x | +15.8% | 15.3% | Buy | +50.8% |
MGN MGNI Magnite, Inc. | $1.9B | 13.1x | +9.1% | 20.3% | Buy | +32.4% |
IAS IAS Integral Ad Science Holding Corp. | $1.7B | 27.5x | +15.1% | 7.9% | Buy | +38.2% |
DV DV DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | $1.9B | 21.7x | +15.3% | 6.8% | Buy | +31.8% |
CRT CRTO Criteo S.A. | $1.2B | 4.6x | -9.8% | 7.4% | Buy | +55.3% |
PUB PUBM PubMatic, Inc. | $489M | — | +2.3% | -5.1% | Buy | +34.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TTD Dividend and Capital Return
TTD returns 11.8% annually — null% through dividends and 11.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
11.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
11.8%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
56M
Approx. Share Reduction
11.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
476M
At 11.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTTD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $37, implying +50.8% from the current price of $25. The bear case scenario is $17 and the bull case is $87.
02What is the TTD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TTD is $37 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+143.8% from today), and the low-end target is $22 (-10.6%). The base case model target is $39.
03Is The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) stock overvalued in 2026?
TTD trades at 22.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TTD in 2026 are: (1) Intensifying Competition — TTD faces significant competition from major platforms like Google and Amazon, which utilize first-party data to offer advertisers enhanced control and attribution. (2) Revenue Deceleration — TTD has experienced a notable deceleration in revenue growth, with Q1 2026 guidance projecting only 10% year-over-year growth, a significant drop from previous periods. (3) Loss of Agencies and Advertisers — The loss of advertising agencies and advertisers, which form TTD's primary client base, could severely impact the business. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Trade Desk, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TTD will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+15.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.14 (+24.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.0B in revenue.
06When does The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) report its next earnings?
The Trade Desk, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.32 and revenue of $679M. Over recent quarters, TTD has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Trade Desk, Inc. generate?
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) generated $787M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.2%. TTD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).