Upside case
Bull case
$131+138.3%
APTV would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Aptiv PLC (APTV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering APTV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
+72.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$41 – $131
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.7B
APTV price targets
Three scenarios for where APTV stock could go
Current
~$55
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $55
Bear
$41
Base
$43
Bull
$131
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$43-22.2%
At 7x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$41-24.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push APTV down roughly 25% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aptiv PLC
APTV · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsDecember year-end
Aptiv is a global automotive technology company that designs and manufactures vehicle components, particularly electrical architecture and advanced safety systems. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Signal and Power Solutions (roughly 60% of sales) for electrical components, and Advanced Safety and User Experience (roughly 40%) for autonomous driving and connectivity technologies. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep integration with major automakers and extensive intellectual property portfolio in vehicle electrification and autonomous systems.
Market Cap
$11.7B
Revenue TTM
$20.7B
Net Income TTM
$365M
Net Margin
1.8%
APTV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.12/$1.79
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.17/$1.81
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.86/$1.82
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.62
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.12/$1.79 | +18.4% | $5.2B/$5.0B | +4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.17/$1.81 | +19.9% | $5.2B/$5.1B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.86/$1.82 | +2.2% | $5.2B/$5.1B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.71/$1.62 | +5.6% | $5.1B/$5.0B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.4B
-4.8% YoY
FY2
$20.1B
+3.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.83
+412.8% YoY
FY2
$5.41
+41.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 5.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
APTV beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
APTV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $21.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electrical Distribution Systems
41.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
33.4%
+6.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Electrical Distribution Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 41.5% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 33.4%, up 6.2% YoY.
APTV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $108 — implies +79.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
79.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APTV
73.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+191% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
APTV
73.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+279% premium
vs APTV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
73.1x
vs
5Y Average
50.3x
+45% premium
Forward PE
8.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-56%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
73.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+191%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+279%
5Y Avg
50.3x
+45%
PEG Ratio
0.67x
S&P 500
1.72x
-61%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
-27%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-46%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
-27%
5Y Avg
13.4x
-39%
Price/FCF
7.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
-64%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
-48%
5Y Avg
35.9x
-79%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-82%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-20%
5Y Avg
1.4x
-60%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
0.17%
—
| Metric | APTV | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg APTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.4x | 19.1x-56% | 15.1x-44% | — |
| Trailing PE | 73.1x | 25.1x+191% | 19.3x+279% | 50.3x+45% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.67x | 1.72x-61% | 0.91x-27% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2x | 15.2x-46% | 11.3x-27% | 13.4x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 7.6x | 21.1x-64% | 14.6x-48% | 35.9x-79% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-82% | 0.7x-20% | 1.4x-60% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | 0.17% |
APTV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPTV Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
APTV returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$20.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.7× FCF
~5.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$397M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
213M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAPTV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Manufacturing and Product Liability
Aptiv may incur significant losses due to warranty claims, product recalls, and product liability lawsuits if its products fail to perform as expected. The complexity of manufacturing processes and stringent quality standards could lead to product failures, shipment delays, and reputational damage.
High Risk
Customer Concentration
Aptiv relies heavily on a few major customers, such as General Motors and Stellantis, which accounted for approximately 9% of revenue each in 2022. A weakening or termination of these relationships could pose a significant financial risk.
High Risk
Debt Management
While Aptiv has managed its debt well, the company does carry debt and faces potential increases in interest rates. The need to manage leverage remains a critical consideration for its financial stability.
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
Evolving environmental and safety regulations, particularly regarding autonomous driving and emissions standards, could increase compliance costs and impact Aptiv's product development. This regulatory uncertainty poses a risk to future profitability.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Global supply chain issues, such as semiconductor shortages, have the potential to interrupt Aptiv's production and its ability to meet customer demands. Increased labor costs, particularly in manufacturing locations like China, also pose a risk.
Medium
Goodwill Impairment
Aptiv has experienced goodwill impairment charges, including a $650 million charge related to the Wind River acquisition. This indicates potential issues with future profitability and the risk of overpaying for software assets.
Medium
Profitability and Margins
Aptiv faces margin compression due to factors like commodity price fluctuations, increased labor costs, and competition. The company's relatively low net margin could limit its growth potential.
Lower
Technological Obsolescence
Rapid advancements in automotive technology require continuous investment in research and development to remain competitive. Failure to keep pace with innovation could adversely affect Aptiv's market position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APTV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Growth Potential and Market Position
Aptiv is expected to benefit from substantial new business bookings, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth. Its expansion into higher-margin applications could significantly increase its total addressable market (TAM) by 2030, positioning the company favorably in both automotive and non-automotive sectors.
Strong Financial Performance
Despite recent challenges like goodwill impairment charges, Aptiv has demonstrated strong operational performance, with quarterly revenue exceeding analyst expectations. The company boasts a solid return on equity of 18.22%, suggesting effective management and profitability.
Strategic Initiatives and Shareholder Returns
Aptiv is undergoing strategic changes, including exiting a loss-making joint venture, which is expected to improve earnings per share (EPS). The company plans significant capital returns to shareholders through aggressive stock buybacks and a planned spin-off of its software business, seen as a catalyst for future growth.
Analyst Confidence and Ratings
A significant number of analysts have issued 'buy' ratings for Aptiv, reflecting strong confidence in its future prospects. The average 12-month price target from analysts suggests considerable upside potential from the current stock price.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APTV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$54.83
52W Range Position
7%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$52.38
+4.7% from the low
52-Week High
$88.93
-38.3% from the high
1 Month
-9.16%
3 Month
-31.22%
YTD
-30.1%
1 Year
-6.7%
3Y CAGR
-16.3%
5Y CAGR
-17.4%
10Y CAGR
+0.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APTV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.4x
vs 11.1x median
-24% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-4.8%
vs +0.2% median
-2306% below peer median
Net Margin
1.8%
vs 1.6% median
+11% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APT APTV Aptiv PLC | $11.7B | 8.4x | -4.8% | 1.8% | Buy | +72.8% |
LEA LEA Lear Corporation | $6.7B | 9.1x | +1.8% | 2.2% | Hold | -3.9% |
BWA BWA BorgWarner Inc. | $11.9B | 11.1x | +2.6% | 0.9% | Buy | +20.2% |
VC VC Visteon Corporation | $3.0B | 12.9x | +0.2% | 5.3% | Buy | +9.8% |
DAN DAN Dana Incorporated | $4.6B | 13.6x | -13.5% | — | Buy | +6.9% |
ADN ADNT Adient plc | $1.6B | 9.9x | +0.1% | -2.1% | Hold | +29.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APTV Dividend and Capital Return
APTV returns 3.4% annually — null% through dividends and 3.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$397M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
213M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $0.22 | -75.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2019 | $0.88 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 2018 | $0.88 | -9.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% |
| 2017 | $0.97 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% |
| 2016 | $0.97 | +16.0% | 4.3% | 6.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAPTV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aptiv PLC (APTV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aptiv PLC (APTV) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying +72.8% from the current price of $55. The bear case scenario is $41 and the bull case is $131.
02What is the APTV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APTV is $95 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $110 (+100.6% from today), and the low-end target is $74 (+35.0%). The base case model target is $43.
03Is Aptiv PLC (APTV) stock overvalued in 2026?
APTV trades at 8.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Aptiv PLC (APTV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APTV in 2026 are: (1) Manufacturing and Product Liability — Aptiv may incur significant losses due to warranty claims, product recalls, and product liability lawsuits if its products fail to perform as expected. (2) Customer Concentration — Aptiv relies heavily on a few major customers, such as General Motors and Stellantis, which accounted for approximately 9% of revenue each in 2022. (3) Debt Management — While Aptiv has managed its debt well, the company does carry debt and faces potential increases in interest rates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aptiv PLC's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APTV will report consensus revenue of $19.4B (-4.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.83 (+412.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.1B in revenue.
06When does Aptiv PLC (APTV) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for APTV is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Aptiv PLC generate?
Aptiv PLC (APTV) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.3%. APTV returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($397M TTM).