Upside case
Bull case
$196+173.5%
BWA would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
20 bullish · 2 bearish · 38 covering BWA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
16
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$77
+7.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$94 – $196
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.8B
BWA price targets
Three scenarios for where BWA stock could go
Current
~$72
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $72
Bear
$94
Base
$149
Bull
$196
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$149+107.5%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$94+30.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BWA down roughly 31% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BorgWarner Inc.
BWA · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsDecember year-end
BorgWarner is a global automotive technology supplier that develops and manufactures components and systems for combustion, hybrid, and electric vehicles. It generates revenue primarily through four segments: Air Management (~40% of sales), E-Propulsion & Drivetrain (~35%), Fuel Injection (~15%), and Aftermarket (~10%), selling to both original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise across multiple propulsion technologies and its established relationships with major automakers worldwide.
Market Cap
$14.8B
Revenue TTM
$14.3B
Net Income TTM
$362M
Net Margin
2.5%
BWA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.21/$1.06
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.24/$1.16
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.16
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.24/$1.17
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.21/$1.06 | +14.2% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24/$1.16 | +6.9% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.35/$1.16 | +16.4% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24/$1.17 | +6.0% | $3.5B/$3.5B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.8B
+3.5% YoY
FY2
$15.2B
+2.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.90
+67.1% YoY
FY2
$3.31
+14.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 10.1%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.26
Expected Revenue
$3.6B
BWA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BWA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
34.2%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Europe is the largest reported region at 34.2%, down 1.9% YoY.
BWA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $59 — implies -18.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BWA
56.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+130% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
BWA
56.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+165% premium
vs BWA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
56.1x
vs
5Y Average
19.3x
+191% premium
Forward PE
13.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
56.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+130%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+165%
5Y Avg
19.3x
+191%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-46%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-33%
5Y Avg
5.9x
+39%
Price/FCF
12.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-39%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-19%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+4%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-67%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+48%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+68%
Dividend Yield
0.77%
S&P 500
1.91%
-60%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-65%
5Y Avg
1.55%
-51%
| Metric | BWA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg BWA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.8x | 18.8x-27% | 16.3x-15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 56.1x | 24.4x+130% | 21.2x+165% | 19.3x+191% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2x | 15.2x-46% | 12.2x-33% | 5.9x+39% |
| Price/FCF | 12.6x | 20.7x-39% | 15.6x-19% | 12.0x |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-67% | 0.7x+48% | 0.6x+68% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.77% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.55% |
BWA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBWA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BWA generates $1.4B in free cash flow at a 10.1% margin — 12.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.74
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.3× FCF
~1.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$508M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
206M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBWA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Revenue and earnings uncertainty
Analyst estimates and forecasts for BorgWarner's revenue and earnings indicate potential variability, which could impact stock performance.
Lower
Dividend sustainability
While BorgWarner has returned significant capital to shareholders, the sustainability of dividends and buybacks may be questioned if earnings decline.
High Risk
Strategic execution risk
BorgWarner's entry into the data center market with a turbine generator system represents a new and unproven strategic direction, posing execution risks.
Medium
Market competition
The evolving competitive landscape, especially in new markets like data centers, could pressure BorgWarner's growth and margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BWA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Q1 2026 results
BorgWarner reported strong first-quarter 2026 results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, demonstrating financial resilience.
Electrified product awards
The company highlighted new awards in electrified and industrial power solutions, signaling growth in key segments.
Data center expansion
BorgWarner outlined plans to scale data center and grid-related products from 2027 onward, diversifying its revenue streams.
High-margin eProduct portfolio
The 2025 financial results showed profitability in a stagnant market, driven by a high-margin hybrid and eProduct portfolio.
AI data center entry
The company's bold entry into AI data center power systems strengthens its long-term growth thesis.
Technology leadership
Upcoming appointment of a long-time PowerDrive Systems head underscores BorgWarner's focus on maintaining technology leadership.
Customer and geographic diversity
The company's diverse customer and geographic base minimizes exposure to any single market or client.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BWA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$71.84
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.24
+122.8% from the low
52-Week High
$78.82
-8.9% from the high
1 Month
+16.21%
3 Month
+38.02%
YTD
+54.0%
1 Year
+115.7%
3Y CAGR
+20.8%
5Y CAGR
+11.4%
10Y CAGR
+8.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BWA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.8x
vs 9.9x median
+40% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.5%
vs +2.8% median
+22% above peer median
Net Margin
2.5%
vs 2.1% median
+20% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BWA BWA BorgWarner Inc. | $14.8B | 13.8x | +3.5% | 2.5% | Buy | +7.3% |
LEA LEA Lear Corporation | $7.1B | 9.4x | +3.4% | 2.2% | Hold | -3.5% |
APH APH Amphenol Corporation | $201.6B | 34.2x | +15.0% | 17.3% | Buy | +11.5% |
DAN DAN Dana Incorporated | $3.9B | 12.1x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +26.1% |
ADN ADNT Adient plc | $1.6B | 9.8x | -0.9% | 0.4% | Hold | +38.2% |
MGA MGA Magna International Inc. | $18.2B | 9.9x | +2.8% | 2.0% | Buy | +3.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BWA Dividend and Capital Return
BWA returns capital mainly through $508M/year in buybacks (3.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.77% dividend — combining for 4.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
0.77%
Payout Ratio
43.0%
How BWA Splits Its Return
Div 0.77%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 0.77%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$508M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
206M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.56 | +27.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% |
| 2024 | $0.44 | -15.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| 2023 | $0.52 | -13.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsBWA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $77, implying +7.3% from the current price of $72. The bear case scenario is $94 and the bull case is $196.
02What is the BWA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BWA is $77 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+32.2% from today), and the low-end target is $51 (-29.0%). The base case model target is $149.
03Is BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) stock overvalued in 2026?
BWA trades at 13.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BWA in 2026 are: (1) Strategic execution risk — BorgWarner's entry into the data center market with a turbine generator system represents a new and unproven strategic direction, posing execution risks. (2) Revenue and earnings uncertainty — Analyst estimates and forecasts for BorgWarner's revenue and earnings indicate potential variability, which could impact stock performance. (3) Market competition — The evolving competitive landscape, especially in new markets like data centers, could pressure BorgWarner's growth and margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BorgWarner Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BWA will report consensus revenue of $14.8B (+3.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.90 (+67.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.2B in revenue.
06When does BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) report its next earnings?
BorgWarner Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.26 and revenue of $3.6B. Over recent quarters, BWA has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BorgWarner Inc. generate?
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.1%. BWA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($508M TTM).