Upside case
Bull case
$261+340.1%
BWA would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 39x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
20 bullish · 2 bearish · 38 covering BWA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
16
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$69
+15.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$61 – $261
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.3B
BWA price targets
Three scenarios for where BWA stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $59
Bear
$61
Base
$106
Bull
$261
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$106+77.9%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$61+2.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BWA down roughly 2% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BorgWarner Inc.
BWA · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsDecember year-end
BorgWarner is a global automotive technology supplier that develops and manufactures components and systems for combustion, hybrid, and electric vehicles. It generates revenue primarily through four segments: Air Management (~40% of sales), E-Propulsion & Drivetrain (~35%), Fuel Injection (~15%), and Aftermarket (~10%), selling to both original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise across multiple propulsion technologies and its established relationships with major automakers worldwide.
Market Cap
$12.3B
Revenue TTM
$14.3B
Net Income TTM
$362M
Net Margin
2.5%
BWA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.21/$1.06
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.24/$1.16
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.16
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.24/$1.16
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.21/$1.06 | +14.2% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.24/$1.16 | +6.9% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.35/$1.16 | +16.4% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24/$1.16 | +6.9% | $3.5B/$3.5B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.5B
+2.6% YoY
FY2
$15.1B
+3.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.10
+239.0% YoY
FY2
$2.28
+8.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 11.1%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.16
Expected Revenue
$3.5B
BWA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BWA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
34.2%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Europe is the largest reported region at 34.2%, down 1.9% YoY.
BWA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $54 — implies -4.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BWA
46.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+84% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
BWA
46.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+137% premium
vs BWA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
46.4x
vs
5Y Average
19.3x
+141% premium
Forward PE
11.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-40%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
46.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+84%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+137%
5Y Avg
19.3x
+141%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-55%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-39%
5Y Avg
5.9x
+18%
Price/FCF
10.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-51%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-30%
5Y Avg
12.0x
-13%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+21%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+39%
Dividend Yield
0.93%
S&P 500
1.88%
-51%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-57%
5Y Avg
1.55%
-40%
| Metric | BWA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg BWA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.5x | 19.1x-40% | 15.2x-24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 46.4x | 25.2x+84% | 19.6x+137% | 19.3x+141% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9x | 15.3x-55% | 11.4x-39% | 5.9x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 10.4x | 21.3x-51% | 15.0x-30% | 12.0x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-73% | 0.7x+21% | 0.6x+39% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.93% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.55% |
BWA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBWA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BWA generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 11.1% margin — 12.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.74
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.1%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
4.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$508M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
207M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBWA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Automotive Industry Volatility
BorgWarner is heavily reliant on the automotive sector, which is subject to cyclical demand and intense competition. Fluctuations in this industry can significantly impact the company's financial performance.
High Risk
Electrification Execution
The company's strategy to invest in electrification carries risks related to the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and potential supply chain disruptions. These factors could hinder BorgWarner's ability to meet production targets and forecast EV demand accurately.
Medium
Global Economic and Trade Policies
Changes in global trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical events pose risks to BorgWarner's supply chains and overall costs. Such changes can directly affect demand for the company's products and its competitive positioning.
Medium
Competition
BorgWarner faces significant competition from established automotive players and OEMs that may choose to develop their own components. This competitive landscape can pressure margins and market share.
Lower
Technological Advancements
The rapid pace of technological change in the automotive industry necessitates continuous innovation and investment. Failure to keep up with advancements could result in lost market opportunities.
Lower
Acquisitions and Dispositions
BorgWarner's involvement in acquisitions and dispositions introduces integration risks and strategic uncertainties. These activities can distract from core operations and impact financial stability.
Lower
Debt Management
While BorgWarner's debt levels are manageable, with a net debt to equity ratio of 69.1%, the use of debt carries inherent risks. The company's debt-to-FCF ratio of 3.31 indicates a reliance on debt financing that could affect financial flexibility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BWA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Performance
BorgWarner reported a Q4 2025 EPS of $1.35, surpassing expectations of $1.15, alongside revenue of $3.57 billion compared to the anticipated $3.49 billion. This strong performance indicates robust profitability and revenue growth.
Positive FY2026 Guidance
The company has provided FY2026 guidance of $5.00–$5.20 in adjusted EPS on projected revenues of $14.0 billion–$14.3 billion. This guidance reflects a clear path for continued growth and profitability.
Electrification Wins and New Contracts
BorgWarner has secured multiple electrification contracts, including an 800V integrated drive module program for a European OEM set to begin production in 2029. This positions the company favorably in the growing electric and hybrid vehicle market.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
The company generated $1.21 billion in free cash flow, showcasing its ability to generate cash and support future investments and shareholder returns. This strong cash flow is critical for funding growth initiatives.
Share Buyback Program
BorgWarner has authorized a $1 billion share buyback plan, signaling confidence from the board in the company's valuation. This move can enhance shareholder value and indicates that the stock may be undervalued.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BWA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$59.41
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$28.92
+105.4% from the low
52-Week High
$70.08
-15.2% from the high
1 Month
+11.97%
3 Month
+13.75%
YTD
+27.4%
1 Year
+104.9%
3Y CAGR
+14.5%
5Y CAGR
+5.3%
10Y CAGR
+7.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BWA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.5x
vs 10.7x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.6%
vs +1.8% median
+48% above peer median
Net Margin
2.5%
vs 2.1% median
+20% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BWA BWA BorgWarner Inc. | $12.3B | 11.5x | +2.6% | 2.5% | Buy | +15.8% |
LEA LEA Lear Corporation | $7.0B | 9.5x | +1.8% | 2.2% | Hold | -8.0% |
APH APH Amphenol Corporation | $170.2B | 29.7x | +25.4% | 17.3% | Buy | +30.2% |
DAN DAN Dana Incorporated | $4.8B | 14.0x | -13.5% | — | Buy | +3.9% |
ADN ADNT Adient plc | $1.7B | 10.7x | +0.1% | 0.4% | Hold | +20.1% |
MGA MGA Magna International Inc. | $17.5B | 9.3x | +1.9% | 2.0% | Buy | +4.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BWA Dividend and Capital Return
BWA returns capital mainly through $508M/year in buybacks (4.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.93% dividend — combining for 5.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.1%
Dividend Yield
0.93%
Payout Ratio
43.0%
How BWA Splits Its Return
Div 0.93%
Buyback 4.1%
Dividend 0.93%Buybacks 4.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$508M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
207M
At 4.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.56 | +27.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% |
| 2024 | $0.44 | -15.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| 2023 | $0.52 | -13.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsBWA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $69, implying +15.8% from the current price of $59. The bear case scenario is $61 and the bull case is $261.
02What is the BWA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BWA is $69 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $81 (+36.3% from today), and the low-end target is $51 (-14.2%). The base case model target is $106.
03Is BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) stock overvalued in 2026?
BWA trades at 11.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BWA in 2026 are: (1) Automotive Industry Volatility — BorgWarner is heavily reliant on the automotive sector, which is subject to cyclical demand and intense competition. (2) Electrification Execution — The company's strategy to invest in electrification carries risks related to the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and potential supply chain disruptions. (3) Global Economic and Trade Policies — Changes in global trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical events pose risks to BorgWarner's supply chains and overall costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BorgWarner Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BWA will report consensus revenue of $14.5B (+2.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.10 (+239.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.1B in revenue.
06When does BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) report its next earnings?
BorgWarner Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.16 and revenue of $3.5B. Over recent quarters, BWA has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BorgWarner Inc. generate?
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.1%. BWA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($508M TTM).