Upside case
Bull case
$105+97.3%
ARMK would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Aramark (ARMK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 24 covering ARMK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
2
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$55
+3.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$50 – $105
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.0B
ARMK price targets
Three scenarios for where ARMK stock could go
Current
~$53
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $53
Bear
$50
Base
$80
Bull
$105
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$80+49.8%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$50-5.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push ARMK down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aramark
ARMK · NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesOctober year-end
Aramark is a global provider of food service, facilities management, and uniform rental services to institutional clients across education, healthcare, sports, and business sectors. It generates revenue primarily through long-term service contracts—with food services representing the largest segment—followed by facilities management and uniform rental operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, long-term client relationships, and integrated service offerings that create switching costs for institutional customers.
Market Cap
$14.0B
Revenue TTM
$19.4B
Net Income TTM
$357M
Net Margin
1.8%
ARMK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.40
Revenue
$4.6B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.64
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.51/$0.50
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.49/$0.47
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.40/$0.40 | +0.0% | $4.6B/$5.2B | -10.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.64 | -0.2% | $5.0B/$5.2B | -2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.51/$0.50 | +2.0% | $4.8B/$4.7B | +2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49/$0.47 | +3.3% | $4.8B/$4.8B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.4B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$21.4B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.64
+22.3% YoY
FY2
$1.80
+9.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$639M
FCF Margin: 3.3%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.48
Expected Revenue
$4.9B
ARMK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ARMK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $17.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Support Services - United States
72.3%
+7.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.5%
+7.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Food and Support Services - United States is the largest disclosed segment at 72.3% of FY 2024 revenue, up 7.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.5%, up 7.8% YoY.
ARMK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $31 — implies -41.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
41.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ARMK
43.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+79% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ARMK
43.7x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+71% premium
vs ARMK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
43.7x
vs
5Y Average
27.7x
+58% premium
Forward PE
23.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+26%
Industrials
21.2x
+12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
43.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+79%
Industrials
25.6x
+71%
5Y Avg
27.7x
+58%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-1%
Industrials
13.9x
+8%
5Y Avg
14.2x
+6%
Price/FCF
30.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+49%
Industrials
20.0x
+54%
5Y Avg
23.6x
+31%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Industrials
1.6x
-52%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+52%
Dividend Yield
0.78%
S&P 500
1.91%
-59%
Industrials
1.21%
-36%
5Y Avg
1.51%
-49%
| Metric | ARMK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ARMK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.7x | 18.8x+26% | 21.2x+12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 43.7x | 24.4x+79% | 25.6x+71% | 27.7x+58% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.1x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 14.2x |
| Price/FCF | 30.9x | 20.7x+49% | 20.0x+54% | 23.6x+31% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 1.6x-52% | 0.5x+52% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.78% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.51% |
ARMK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolARMK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ARMK returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
6.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$639M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$639M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.9× FCF
~7.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$140M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.41
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
263M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageARMK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Revenue and earnings risk
Analyst price target predictions and revenue estimates suggest potential downside risks to Aramark's financial performance.
Medium
Sector rotation risk
The stock's performance may be influenced by sector rotation trends, particularly in Industrials, which could create volatility.
Medium
Market sentiment risk
Divergent bull/bear analyst views and community sentiment could lead to unpredictable price movements.
Lower
Operational execution risk
As a global provider of food and facilities services, Aramark faces execution risks across diverse markets and industries.
Lower
Competitive pressures
Aramark operates in a competitive industry with low-margin services, which could pressure profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ARMK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Recurring revenue base
Aramark's business model is highlighted for its strong recurring revenue base, providing stability and predictable cash flows.
Multiple re-rating potential
The company's fundamentals suggest potential for a re-rating of its valuation multiples, offering upside for investors.
Long-term partnerships
Aramark secures long-term contracts, such as the 15-year deal with the University at Albany, ensuring sustained revenue streams.
Diverse service offerings
The company provides essential services across multiple sectors, including healthcare, education, and sports, diversifying its revenue sources.
Global operational footprint
Aramark operates in 19 countries, giving it a broad market presence and resilience against regional economic fluctuations.
Innovative dining solutions
The company introduces modern dining concepts like tech-enabled convenience and inclusive options, enhancing customer engagement and retention.
Strong leadership appointments
Recent executive appointments, such as Barbara Flanagan and Brisbane Vaillancourt, signal strategic focus and operational excellence.
Early career development
Aramark invests in talent through early career programs, fostering a pipeline of skilled leaders to drive future growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ARMK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$53.32
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.07
+52.0% from the low
52-Week High
$54.93
-2.9% from the high
1 Month
+0.72%
3 Month
+33.80%
YTD
+45.8%
1 Year
+32.9%
3Y CAGR
+22.2%
5Y CAGR
+15.4%
10Y CAGR
+8.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ARMK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.7x
vs 13.4x median
+77% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +7.1% median
-29% below peer median
Net Margin
1.8%
vs 4.0% median
-54% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARM ARMK Aramark | $14.0B | 23.7x | +5.0% | 1.8% | Buy | +3.6% |
TRM TRMK Trustmark Corporation | $2.6B | 11.4x | +10.3% | 19.3% | Hold | +1.9% |
ABM ABM ABM Industries Incorporated | $2.6B | 11.1x | +5.2% | 1.8% | Hold | +9.5% |
CBR CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | $1.1B | — | +3.6% | 0.8% | Hold | +3.5% |
EAT EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $7.1B | 15.3x | +8.0% | 8.1% | Buy | +14.0% |
CAK CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $3.8B | 19.1x | +7.1% | 4.0% | Hold | -15.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ARMK Dividend and Capital Return
ARMK returns 1.8% annually — 0.78% through dividends and 1.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.78%
Payout Ratio
34.0%
How ARMK Splits Its Return
Div 0.78%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.78%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.41
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.0%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$140M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
263M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.43 | +11.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $0.39 | +17.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2023 | $0.33 | +4.9% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsARMK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aramark (ARMK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aramark (ARMK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $55, implying +3.6% from the current price of $53. The bear case scenario is $50 and the bull case is $105.
02What is the ARMK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ARMK is $55 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+12.5% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-6.2%). The base case model target is $80.
03Is Aramark (ARMK) stock overvalued in 2026?
ARMK trades at 23.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Aramark (ARMK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ARMK in 2026 are: (1) Revenue and earnings risk — Analyst price target predictions and revenue estimates suggest potential downside risks to Aramark's financial performance. (2) Sector rotation risk — The stock's performance may be influenced by sector rotation trends, particularly in Industrials, which could create volatility. (3) Market sentiment risk — Divergent bull/bear analyst views and community sentiment could lead to unpredictable price movements. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aramark's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ARMK will report consensus revenue of $20.4B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.64 (+22.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.4B in revenue.
06When does Aramark (ARMK) report its next earnings?
Aramark is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $0.48 and revenue of $4.9B. Over recent quarters, ARMK has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Aramark generate?
Aramark (ARMK) generated $639M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.3%. ARMK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($140M TTM).