Upside case
Bull case
$66+46.4%
ARMK would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Aramark (ARMK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 24 covering ARMK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
2
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$47
+4.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $66
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.9B
ARMK price targets
Three scenarios for where ARMK stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Base
$69
Bull
$66
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$69+52.9%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aramark
ARMK · NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesOctober year-end
Aramark is a global provider of food service, facilities management, and uniform rental services to institutional clients across education, healthcare, sports, and business sectors. It generates revenue primarily through long-term service contracts—with food services representing the largest segment—followed by facilities management and uniform rental operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, long-term client relationships, and integrated service offerings that create switching costs for institutional customers.
Market Cap
$11.9B
Revenue TTM
$18.8B
Net Income TTM
$317M
Net Margin
1.7%
ARMK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.33
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.40
Revenue
$4.6B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.64
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.51/$0.50
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.34/$0.33 | +3.0% | $4.3B/$4.7B | -8.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.40/$0.40 | +0.0% | $4.6B/$5.2B | -10.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.64 | -0.2% | $5.0B/$5.2B | -2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.51/$0.50 | +2.0% | $4.8B/$4.7B | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.1B
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$21.6B
+7.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.67
+40.0% YoY
FY2
$1.87
+12.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$257M
FCF Margin: 1.4%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.47
Expected Revenue
$4.8B
ARMK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ARMK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $17.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Support Services - United States
72.3%
+7.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.5%
+7.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Food and Support Services - United States is the largest disclosed segment at 72.3% of FY 2024 revenue, up 7.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.5%, up 7.8% YoY.
ARMK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $39 — implies -13.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ARMK
37.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+48% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ARMK
37.1x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
+45% premium
vs ARMK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.1x
vs
5Y Average
27.7x
+34% premium
Forward PE
20.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+7%
Industrials
20.7x
-2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+48%
Industrials
25.7x
+45%
5Y Avg
27.7x
+34%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-12%
Industrials
13.7x
-2%
5Y Avg
14.2x
-6%
Price/FCF
26.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+24%
Industrials
21.2x
+24%
5Y Avg
23.6x
+11%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-79%
Industrials
1.6x
-59%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+29%
Dividend Yield
0.92%
S&P 500
1.87%
-51%
Industrials
1.27%
-28%
5Y Avg
1.51%
-39%
| Metric | ARMK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ARMK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.4x | 19.1x | 20.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.1x | 25.1x+48% | 25.7x+45% | 27.7x+34% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4x | 15.2x-12% | 13.7x | 14.2x |
| Price/FCF | 26.2x | 21.1x+24% | 21.2x+24% | 23.6x+11% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-79% | 1.6x-59% | 0.5x+29% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.92% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 1.51% |
ARMK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolARMK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ARMK returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
7.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.19
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$257M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$639M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
19.8× FCF
~19.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$140M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.41
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
267M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageARMK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Labor & Healthcare Costs
Aramark faces significant pressures on margins due to rising labor and healthcare costs, which could adversely affect profitability. With labor costs representing a substantial portion of operating expenses, any increase could lead to a material impact on the bottom line.
High Risk
Competition for Contracts
The company operates in a highly competitive environment for long-term contracts, which could lead to pricing pressures and reduced margins. Intense competition may hinder Aramark's ability to secure profitable contracts, impacting revenue growth.
High Risk
Union Exposure & Wage Inflation
Aramark's exposure to unionized labor presents risks related to wage inflation and potential strikes or labor disputes. Such events could disrupt operations and increase labor costs, negatively affecting financial performance.
Medium
Market Downturns
General economic downturns can adversely impact Aramark's performance, particularly in sectors reliant on discretionary spending. A significant decline in economic conditions could lead to reduced demand for services.
Medium
Inflation Impact
Rising inflation can increase operating costs for Aramark, particularly in food and labor. If inflation rates continue to rise, it could squeeze margins and affect profitability.
Medium
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Changes in interest rates may impact the value of bonds held by Aramark and could increase financing costs. Higher interest rates could lead to increased expenses and affect cash flow.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
Disruptions to computer systems or privacy breaches pose a risk to Aramark's operations and reputation. Cybersecurity incidents could lead to financial losses and regulatory scrutiny.
Lower
Food Safety Liabilities
Concerns about food safety and potential illnesses can lead to liabilities for Aramark. Any incidents could damage the company's reputation and result in financial penalties.
Lower
Regulatory Changes
New interpretations or changes in the enforcement of government regulations could impact Aramark's business operations. Compliance costs may increase, affecting profitability.
Lower
ESG Factors
Failure to meet stakeholder expectations related to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) could have adverse effects on Aramark's reputation and operational performance. Increasing scrutiny on ESG practices may lead to reputational risks.
Lower
Spin-off Risks
The separation of the Uniform Services business carries risks including potential delays, increased costs, and impacts on relationships with customers and employees. These factors could affect the overall stability of the company.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ARMK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Market Position
ARM Holdings designs power nearly all smartphones and is increasingly being adopted in data centers, AI accelerators, automotive systems, and edge computing devices. The company's technology is seen as critical for the next generation of computing, especially as the industry shifts towards energy-efficient architectures.
High-Growth Market Exposure
ARM is well-positioned to benefit from the surge in AI workloads and the increasing deployment of ARM-based CPUs by hyperscale cloud providers. Its designs are also expanding into automotive systems and edge computing.
Scalable Business Model
ARM operates a high-margin, royalty-based business model that scales efficiently with global chip volumes and requires minimal capital investment. This provides strong operating leverage and is particularly advantageous as demand for its technology grows.
Financial Performance
Aramark has demonstrated revenue growth, with fiscal year 2025 revenue reaching $18.51 billion, an increase of 6.35% from the previous year. The company has also shown strong client retention and significant new business wins.
Analyst Sentiment
Analysts generally hold a positive view of ARMK stock, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy.' Many firms have recently raised their price targets, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ARMK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.26
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$33.71
+34.3% from the low
52-Week High
$46.88
-3.5% from the high
1 Month
+6.47%
3 Month
+17.04%
YTD
+23.7%
1 Year
+32.3%
3Y CAGR
+21.7%
5Y CAGR
+10.6%
10Y CAGR
+6.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ARMK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.4x
vs 12.5x median
+63% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs +5.9% median
+18% above peer median
Net Margin
1.7%
vs 2.9% median
-41% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARM ARMK Aramark | $11.9B | 20.4x | +7.0% | 1.7% | Buy | +4.3% |
TRM TRMK Trustmark Corporation | $2.6B | 11.5x | +25.9% | — | Hold | +1.7% |
ABM ABM ABM Industries Incorporated | $2.4B | 10.3x | +4.8% | 1.8% | Hold | +22.9% |
CBR CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | $661M | — | +1.1% | -0.1% | Hold | +3.5% |
EAT EAT Brinker International, Inc. | $6.2B | 13.5x | +10.2% | 8.1% | Buy | +27.3% |
CAK CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $3.0B | 15.1x | +5.9% | 4.0% | Hold | +7.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ARMK Dividend and Capital Return
ARMK returns 2.1% annually — 0.92% through dividends and 1.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
0.92%
Payout Ratio
34.0%
How ARMK Splits Its Return
Div 0.92%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 0.92%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.41
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.0%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$140M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
267M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.12 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.43 | +11.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $0.39 | +17.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2023 | $0.33 | +4.9% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsARMK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aramark (ARMK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aramark (ARMK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $47, implying +4.3% from the current price of $45.
02What is the ARMK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ARMK is $47 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $50 (+10.5% from today), and the low-end target is $44 (-2.8%). The base case model target is $69.
03Is Aramark (ARMK) stock overvalued in 2026?
ARMK trades at 20.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Aramark (ARMK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ARMK in 2026 are: (1) Labor & Healthcare Costs — Aramark faces significant pressures on margins due to rising labor and healthcare costs, which could adversely affect profitability. (2) Competition for Contracts — The company operates in a highly competitive environment for long-term contracts, which could lead to pricing pressures and reduced margins. (3) Union Exposure & Wage Inflation — Aramark's exposure to unionized labor presents risks related to wage inflation and potential strikes or labor disputes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aramark's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ARMK will report consensus revenue of $20.1B (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.67 (+40.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.6B in revenue.
06When does Aramark (ARMK) report its next earnings?
Aramark is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.47 and revenue of $4.8B. Over recent quarters, ARMK has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Aramark generate?
Aramark (ARMK) generated $257M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.4%. ARMK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($140M TTM).