Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing BAX more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Baxter International Inc. (BAX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
36
analysts
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 36 covering BAX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
19
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$21
+4.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
BAX price targets
Three scenarios for where BAX stock could go
Current
~$20
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Baxter International Inc.
BAX · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesDecember year-end
Baxter International is a global medical technology company that develops and manufactures a broad portfolio of healthcare products for critical care, nutrition, renal care, and surgical applications. It generates revenue primarily through sales of medical devices—including dialysis equipment, infusion pumps, anesthesia products, and surgical technologies—and related consumables and services across its hospital and clinical segments. The company's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive, integrated product ecosystems that create switching costs for healthcare providers and its established global distribution network serving acute care settings.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$11.3B
Net Income TTM
-$1.1B
Net Margin
-9.7%
BAX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.60
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.60
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.53
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.36/$0.31
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.59/$0.60 | -1.7% | $2.8B/$2.9B | -2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.69/$0.60 | +15.0% | $2.8B/$2.8B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.44/$0.53 | -17.0% | $3.0B/$2.8B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.36/$0.31 | +16.1% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +3.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.6B
+2.3% YoY
FY2
$11.9B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.18
+44.7% YoY
FY2
$-1.15
+2.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$501M
FCF Margin: 4.4%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.37
Expected Revenue
$2.8B
BAX beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
BAX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Medical Products And Therapies
48.8%
+1.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
54.4%
+4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Medical Products And Therapies is the largest disclosed segment at 48.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 1.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 54.4%, up 4.6% YoY.
BAX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $14 — implies -31.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BAX
-11.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
146% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
BAX
-11.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
151% discount
vs BAX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-11.4x
vs
5Y Average
20.7x
155% discount
Forward PE
10.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-45%
Healthcare
18.3x
-43%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-11.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-146%
Healthcare
22.1x
-151%
5Y Avg
20.7x
-155%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+79%
Healthcare
14.2x
+91%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+12%
Price/FCF
31.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+54%
Healthcare
18.5x
+71%
5Y Avg
29.0x
+9%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Healthcare
2.6x
-65%
5Y Avg
2.1x
-56%
Dividend Yield
3.41%
S&P 500
1.91%
+78%
Healthcare
1.50%
+127%
5Y Avg
2.79%
+22%
| Metric | BAX | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg BAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.4x | 18.8x-45% | 18.3x-43% | — |
| Trailing PE | -11.4x | 24.4x-146% | 22.1x-151% | 20.7x-155% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.2x | 15.2x+79% | 14.2x+91% | 24.4x+12% |
| Price/FCF | 31.8x | 20.7x+54% | 18.5x+71% | 29.0x |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-70% | 2.6x-65% | 2.1x-56% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.41% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 2.79% |
BAX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBAX Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BAX returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-2.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-9.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.13
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$501M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-1.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-5.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
16.0× FCF
~16.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-16.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
3.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
516M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBAX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Weak financial performance
Baxter International reported weak Q4 results and a dismal FY 2026 guidance, leading to a stock downgrade.
High Risk
High debt burden
The company faces a challenging recovery path due to high debt levels, as highlighted by recent market reactions.
High Risk
Missed targets
A 16% stock plunge in February 2026 signaled market impatience with Baxter's repeated failure to meet targets.
Medium
Low growth outlook
Guidance for 2026 indicates flat to 1% US GAAP sales growth, reflecting stagnant performance.
Medium
Intense competition
Baxter operates in a highly competitive market, adding pressure to its turnaround efforts.
Medium
Goodwill impairments
Recent financial results included fresh goodwill impairments, signaling potential overvaluation of past acquisitions.
Lower
Stock underperformance
Year-to-date, Baxter's stock has declined by 9.7%, with a 1-year return deep in the red.
Lower
Valuation concerns
Despite a DCF analysis suggesting undervaluation, the stock's lagging performance raises questions about near-term upside.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BAX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Bullish investment thesis
Multiple bullish theses on Baxter International Inc. highlight its potential as a good stock to buy, supported by value investing perspectives.
Strong brand legacy
Baxter's long-standing history since 1931 and its reputation in medical solutions contribute to its enduring market presence.
Diverse talent pool
The company attracts skilled professionals across various fields, enhancing innovation and operational efficiency.
Potential undervaluation
Analyses suggest Baxter may be undervalued at current prices, presenting a bargain opportunity for investors.
Hyper-growth potential
The bull case emphasizes Baxter's profitability and hyper-growth trajectory, backed by strong brand recognition and industry rankings.
Unique product craftsmanship
Baxter's handcrafted furniture and accessories offer unique, irreproducible designs, adding a niche market appeal.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BAX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$19.89
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.73
+26.4% from the low
52-Week High
$31.76
-37.4% from the high
1 Month
+11.80%
3 Month
+16.38%
YTD
+2.0%
1 Year
-33.3%
3Y CAGR
-23.8%
5Y CAGR
-24.5%
10Y CAGR
-7.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BAX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.4x
vs 14.2x median
-27% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.3%
vs +9.7% median
-77% below peer median
Net Margin
-9.7%
vs 5.3% median
-282% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAX BAX Baxter International Inc. | $10.3B | 10.4x | +2.3% | -9.7% | Hold | +4.1% |
BDX BDX Becton, Dickinson and Company | $52.2B | 11.4x | +5.4% | 5.3% | Hold | +21.4% |
BSX BSX Boston Scientific Corporation | $67.3B | 13.5x | +9.7% | 14.4% | Buy | +83.0% |
EW EW Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | $50.4B | 29.0x | +9.8% | 17.6% | Buy | +10.5% |
ICU ICU SeaStar Medical Holding Corporation | $122M | — | +35.1% | -828.6% | Buy | +156.4% |
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $9.2B | 14.9x | +5.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BAX Dividend and Capital Return
BAX returns 3.4% total yield, led by a 3.41% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.41%
Payout Ratio
—
How BAX Splits Its Return
Div 3.41%
Dividend 3.41%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-23.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-11.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
516M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.52 | -50.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $1.04 | -10.3% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $1.16 | +0.9% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $1.15 | +6.0% | 0.1% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsBAX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Baxter International Inc. (BAX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Baxter International Inc. (BAX) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $21, implying +4.1% from the current price of $20.
02What is the BAX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BAX is $21 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $27 (+35.7% from today), and the low-end target is $17 (-14.5%).
03Is Baxter International Inc. (BAX) stock overvalued in 2026?
BAX trades at 10.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Baxter International Inc. (BAX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BAX in 2026 are: (1) Weak financial performance — Baxter International reported weak Q4 results and a dismal FY 2026 guidance, leading to a stock downgrade. (2) High debt burden — The company faces a challenging recovery path due to high debt levels, as highlighted by recent market reactions. (3) Missed targets — A 16% stock plunge in February 2026 signaled market impatience with Baxter's repeated failure to meet targets. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Baxter International Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BAX will report consensus revenue of $11.6B (+2.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.18 (+44.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.9B in revenue.
06When does Baxter International Inc. (BAX) report its next earnings?
Baxter International Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.37 and revenue of $2.8B. Over recent quarters, BAX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Baxter International Inc. generate?
Baxter International Inc. (BAX) generated $501M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.4%. BAX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.4% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).