Upside case
Bull case
$160+99.6%
HSIC would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 12, 2026
Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
15 bullish · 3 bearish · 33 covering HSIC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
15
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$87
+9.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$76 – $160
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.2B
HSIC price targets
Three scenarios for where HSIC stock could go
Current
~$80
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 12, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $80
Bear
$76
Base
$121
Bull
$160
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$121+51.5%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$76-4.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push HSIC down roughly 5% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Henry Schein, Inc.
HSIC · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - DistributionDecember year-end
Henry Schein is a leading distributor of healthcare products and technology solutions primarily serving dental and medical practitioners worldwide. It generates revenue through two main segments: Health Care Distribution (~90% of sales) selling dental and medical supplies, and Technology & Value-Added Services (~10%) providing practice management software and related services. The company's moat lies in its extensive distribution network, deep customer relationships across dental and medical practices, and integrated software ecosystem that creates switching costs.
Market Cap
$9.2B
Revenue TTM
$13.2B
Net Income TTM
$398M
Net Margin
3.0%
HSIC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.18
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.38/$1.27
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.34/$1.30
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.32/$1.20
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.10/$1.18 | -6.8% | $3.2B/$3.3B | -1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.38/$1.27 | +8.7% | $3.3B/$3.3B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.34/$1.30 | +3.1% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.32/$1.20 | +10.0% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.9B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$14.4B
+3.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.39
+30.6% YoY
FY2
$4.88
+11.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$561M
FCF Margin: 4.3%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.20
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
HSIC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HSIC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 9.0% YoY.
HSIC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $103 — implies +26.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
26.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HSIC
24.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
HSIC
24.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+10% premium
vs HSIC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.5x
vs
5Y Average
21.6x
+13% premium
Forward PE
15.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-20%
Healthcare
18.4x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+0%
Healthcare
22.2x
+10%
5Y Avg
21.6x
+13%
PEG Ratio
7.76x
S&P 500
1.65x
+369%
Healthcare
1.59x
+389%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-22%
Healthcare
14.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+1%
Price/FCF
16.0x
S&P 500
20.8x
-23%
Healthcare
18.4x
-13%
5Y Avg
19.4x
-18%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-77%
Healthcare
2.6x
-73%
5Y Avg
0.8x
-13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.90%
—
Healthcare
1.51%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | HSIC | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg HSIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.0x | 18.8x-20% | 18.4x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.5x | 24.4x | 22.2x+10% | 21.6x+13% |
| PEG Ratio | 7.76x | 1.65x+369% | 1.59x+389% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9x | 15.2x-22% | 14.2x-16% | 11.7x |
| Price/FCF | 16.0x | 20.8x-23% | 18.4x-13% | 19.4x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-77% | 2.6x-73% | 0.8x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.90% | 1.51% | — |
HSIC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHSIC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
HSIC returns 9.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$561M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$156M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.3× FCF
~6.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
9.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$850M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
115M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHSIC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Profitability Pressures
Henry Schein has experienced declining profit margins in recent years, with a notable decrease in operating margin. This trend indicates that increased overhead costs may be absorbing gains from improved product economics, potentially impacting overall profitability.
High Risk
Slow Organic Growth
The company has reported slow organic revenue growth, averaging only 1.3% over the last two years. This sluggish performance suggests waning demand in its core business, necessitating improvements in product offerings and market strategies.
High Risk
Legal Proceedings
Henry Schein is currently involved in multiple opioid-related lawsuits, which could result in significant financial and reputational damage. Although these lawsuits represent a small part of the business, the potential liabilities could adversely affect the company's financial health.
Medium
Liquidity Concerns
The company's quick ratio is considered low, indicating potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations. While the current ratio appears normal, the tight liquidity position highlighted by the quick ratio raises concerns about financial flexibility.
Medium
Competition from E-commerce Giants
The entry of large e-commerce players into the medical supply space poses a significant competitive threat to Henry Schein. This competition could pressure margins and market share, impacting revenue growth.
Medium
Fluctuations in Government Reimbursement Rates
Changes in government policies regarding reimbursement rates can significantly impact Henry Schein's revenue and profitability. Such fluctuations can create uncertainty in financial projections and operational planning.
Lower
Global Economic Uncertainties
Fluctuations in global and domestic economies, including inflation and currency exchange rates, can affect Henry Schein's operations. While these factors are external, they can still influence the company's financial performance.
Lower
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Although not a primary driver for the business, changes in interest rates can influence bond prices and borrowing costs for Henry Schein. This sensitivity could affect the company's financing strategies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HSIC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Operational Improvements and Cost Savings
Henry Schein is targeting significant cost savings of $75–100 million by 2025. This initiative, along with strategic asset rationalization, is expected to transform the company into a more lean and growth-focused enterprise.
Shift to High-Margin Businesses
The company is actively transitioning towards higher-margin businesses, particularly in technology and value-added services like SaaS and e-commerce solutions. Henry Schein has already exceeded its goal of deriving 40% of its operating income from these high-growth areas and aims for over half by 2027.
Strategic Investment and Shareholder Value
KKR's entry as a strategic investor, holding a significant stake and board seats, is seen as a catalyst for operational improvements and potential value unlocking. Additionally, share buybacks are expected to further support shareholder value.
Market Position and Growth Potential
HSIC holds a dominant #1 position in global dental distribution and is a major player in the U.S. medical distribution market. The dental and medical markets are supported by strong tailwinds, indicating continued demand for HSIC's products and services.
Financial Performance and Valuation
Recent earnings reports have shown positive beats against expectations, indicating improving financial performance. Analysts suggest that the stock may be fairly valued or even undervalued, supported by a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio.
Technical Strength
Strong technical indicators, including an uptrend and supportive moving averages, suggest a potential for a breakout in HSIC's stock performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HSIC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$79.97
52W Range Position
66%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$61.95
+29.1% from the low
52-Week High
$89.29
-10.4% from the high
1 Month
+10.02%
3 Month
+6.81%
YTD
+4.1%
1 Year
+14.0%
3Y CAGR
+0.9%
5Y CAGR
+0.8%
10Y CAGR
+1.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HSIC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.0x
vs 17.6x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +6.0% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
3.0%
vs 0.6% median
+385% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $9.2B | 15.0x | +5.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.3% |
DXP DXPE DXP Enterprises, Inc. | $2.6B | 26.9x | +7.8% | 4.3% | Hold | -6.6% |
OMI OMI Owens & Minor, Inc. | $171M | 2.3x | -1.0% | -39.8% | Hold | +596.4% |
MCK MCK McKesson Corporation | $93.7B | 17.6x | +7.8% | 1.2% | Buy | +27.6% |
CAH CAH Cardinal Health, Inc. | $53.2B | 21.0x | +6.0% | 0.6% | Buy | +12.0% |
XRA XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. | $2.0B | 7.1x | +3.6% | -17.1% | Hold | +29.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HSIC Dividend and Capital Return
HSIC returns 9.1% annually — null% through dividends and 9.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
9.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
9.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$850M
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
9.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
115M
At 9.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsHSIC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $87, implying +9.3% from the current price of $80. The bear case scenario is $76 and the bull case is $160.
02What is the HSIC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HSIC is $87 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+25.0% from today), and the low-end target is $64 (-20.0%). The base case model target is $121.
03Is Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) stock overvalued in 2026?
HSIC trades at 15.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HSIC in 2026 are: (1) Profitability Pressures — Henry Schein has experienced declining profit margins in recent years, with a notable decrease in operating margin. (2) Slow Organic Growth — The company has reported slow organic revenue growth, averaging only 1. (3) Legal Proceedings — Henry Schein is currently involved in multiple opioid-related lawsuits, which could result in significant financial and reputational damage. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Henry Schein, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HSIC will report consensus revenue of $13.9B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.39 (+30.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.4B in revenue.
06When does Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) report its next earnings?
Henry Schein, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.20 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, HSIC has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Henry Schein, Inc. generate?
Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) generated $561M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.3%. HSIC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($850M TTM).