Upside case
Bull case
$157+763.5%
BEKE would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 12 covering BEKE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$22
+22.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $157
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
3.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $60.5B
BEKE price targets
Three scenarios for where BEKE stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $18
Base
$107
Bull
$157
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$107+490.3%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
KE Holdings Inc.
BEKE · NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesDecember year-end
KE Holdings operates China's largest integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services, connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and agents. It generates revenue primarily from commission fees on existing home transactions (~60% of revenue) and new home sales (~25%), plus fees from home renovation services and rental operations. Its key advantage is the Beike platform's network effect—combining Lianjia's physical brokerage stores with a vast agent cooperation network that creates a comprehensive, trusted ecosystem for China's fragmented real estate market.
Market Cap
$60.5B
Revenue TTM
$103.5B
Net Income TTM
$3.5B
Net Margin
3.4%
BEKE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+24.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.16
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.22
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.16
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.07/$0.10
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.16/$0.16 | +0.0% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.22/$0.22 | +0.0% | $3.6B/$3.7B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.16/$0.16 | +0.0% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.07/$0.10 | -33.1% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$109.1B
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$124.9B
+14.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.76
-8.8% YoY
FY2
$2.98
+8.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.4B
FCF Margin: 2.3%
Next Earnings
May 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.14
Expected Revenue
$2.7B
BEKE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BEKE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $55.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
New home transaction services
51.5%
-38.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
New home transaction services is the largest disclosed segment at 51.5% of FY 2022 revenue, down 38.3% YoY.
BEKE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $133 — implies +678.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
678.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BEKE
35.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+43% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
BEKE
35.8x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+48% premium
vs BEKE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.8x
vs
5Y Average
24.3x
+48% premium
Forward PE
3.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-83%
Real Estate
26.4x
-88%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
+43%
Real Estate
24.1x
+48%
5Y Avg
24.3x
+48%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
88.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+483%
Real Estate
16.7x
+433%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+964%
Price/FCF
49.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+133%
Real Estate
15.4x
+218%
5Y Avg
5.2x
+841%
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+41%
Real Estate
3.0x
+48%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+969%
Dividend Yield
1.94%
S&P 500
1.87%
+4%
Real Estate
4.66%
-58%
5Y Avg
4.21%
-54%
| Metric | BEKE | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg BEKE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 3.2x | 19.1x-83% | 26.4x-88% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.8x | 25.1x+43% | 24.1x+48% | 24.3x+48% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 88.7x | 15.2x+483% | 16.7x+433% | 8.3x+964% |
| Price/FCF | 49.1x | 21.1x+133% | 15.4x+218% | 5.2x+841% |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+41% | 3.0x+48% | 0.4x+969% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 4.21% |
BEKE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBEKE Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BEKE pays 3.2% total shareholder yield with 3.2% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$103.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.02
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
3.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$11.2B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
4.6× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.2%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
69.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageBEKE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Real Estate Market Volatility
BEKE's core revenue is tied to the Chinese property market, which has seen steep declines in transaction volumes and prices. A prolonged slump could erode sales from property transactions and spill over into ancillary services such as home rentals and property management. The company’s earnings are highly sensitive to these market dynamics.
High Risk
Regulatory Environment
Recent regulatory tightening in China has spooked investors and introduced uncertainty into BEKE’s operations. New policies can trigger stock volatility and impose operational constraints, potentially delaying growth initiatives. The company’s exposure to evolving real‑estate regulations remains a significant risk.
High Risk
Profitability & Margin Compression
BEKE has struggled to improve margins amid rising labor costs, fee caps, and weak cash conversion. The home renovation unit remains loss‑making, while the rental business is only profitable at the operating level. These headwinds compress operating margins and threaten long‑term profitability.
High Risk
Revenue & Profitability Decline
BEKE reported a significant year‑over‑year revenue decline, especially in Q4 2025, and posted a loss from operations in that quarter. Rising R&D, retail, and labor costs further erode profitability. Additionally, the company’s ROIC is below its WACC and its Altman Z‑Score falls in a grey area, indicating potential financial stress.
Medium
Intensifying Competition
As the property market contracts, competition among real‑estate platforms intensifies, leading to price wars and higher marketing expenses. These dynamics can squeeze BEKE’s market share and erode profitability. The company must sustain competitive differentiation to mitigate this risk.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
BEKE’s digital platform relies on robust IT infrastructure, making it vulnerable to cyber‑attacks. A successful breach could disrupt operations, compromise customer data, and damage the company’s reputation. The risk of cyber incidents remains a material concern.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BEKE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Tech-Enabled Real Estate Platform
BEKE’s platform fuses online and offline real‑estate services, positioning it at the forefront of China’s digital housing marketplace. The integrated system supports streamlined transactions and data‑driven pricing, giving BEKE a competitive edge over traditional brokerage models.
Rental & Renovation Expansion
The company is broadening into home renovation and rental services, with rental revenue up 18.1% year‑over‑year and a significant rise in units under management. These new segments are expected to lift margins and diversify revenue streams beyond core housing sales.
Institutional Investor Confidence
Large institutional investors, notably Assenagon Asset Management, have increased their stakes in BEKE, signaling strong market confidence. Such backing often correlates with improved liquidity and access to capital for growth initiatives.
Share Buyback & Dividend Policy
BEKE maintains an active share buyback program and pays a quarterly dividend of $0.276 per share, with an upcoming ex‑dividend date in April 2026. The sustainable payout ratio reinforces shareholder value and signals management’s confidence in cash flow.
AI‑Driven Operational Efficiency
The firm is integrating AI tools to enhance unit economics and operational efficiency across its platform. Early adoption of AI is expected to reduce transaction costs and improve customer experience, driving future profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BEKE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$18.14
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$14.40
+26.0% from the low
52-Week High
$20.98
-13.5% from the high
1 Month
+20.21%
3 Month
-1.52%
YTD
+13.0%
1 Year
-12.9%
3Y CAGR
+4.2%
5Y CAGR
-18.2%
10Y CAGR
-7.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BEKE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
3.2x
vs 35.5x median
-91% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.4%
vs +6.5% median
-18% below peer median
Net Margin
3.4%
vs 0.2% median
+1865% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BEK BEKE KE Holdings Inc. | $60.5B | 3.2x | +5.4% | 3.4% | Buy | +22.0% |
COM COMP Compass, Inc. | $4.1B | 44.4x | +57.7% | 0.2% | Buy | +96.8% |
EXP EXPI eXp World Holdings, Inc. | $1.0B | 89.7x | +6.5% | -0.5% | Buy | +75.2% |
HOU HOUS Anywhere Real Estate Inc. | $2.0B | — | -1.2% | -2.2% | Hold | +7.7% |
RMR RMR The RMR Group Inc. | $293M | 26.5x | -9.3% | 3.5% | Hold | +64.1% |
ZG ZG Zillow Group, Inc. Class A | $10.6B | 19.7x | +13.7% | 0.9% | Buy | +61.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BEKE Dividend and Capital Return
BEKE returns 3.2% total yield, led by a 1.94% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
1.94%
Payout Ratio
69.6%
How BEKE Splits Its Return
Div 1.94%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 1.94%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.3%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
281M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.3B
At 8.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.36 | +2.6% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.35 | +105.3% | 23.5% | 36.5% |
| 2023 | $0.17 | — | 26.4% | 33.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsBEKE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $22, implying +22.0% from the current price of $18.
02What is the BEKE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BEKE is $22 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $24 (+34.5% from today), and the low-end target is $19 (+4.7%). The base case model target is $107.
03Is KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) stock overvalued in 2026?
BEKE trades at 3.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BEKE in 2026 are: (1) Real Estate Market Volatility — BEKE's core revenue is tied to the Chinese property market, which has seen steep declines in transaction volumes and prices. (2) Regulatory Environment — Recent regulatory tightening in China has spooked investors and introduced uncertainty into BEKE’s operations. (3) Profitability & Margin Compression — BEKE has struggled to improve margins amid rising labor costs, fee caps, and weak cash conversion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is KE Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BEKE will report consensus revenue of $109.1B (+5.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.76 (-8.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $124.9B in revenue.
06When does KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) report its next earnings?
KE Holdings Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-14. Consensus expects EPS of $0.14 and revenue of $2.7B. Over recent quarters, BEKE has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does KE Holdings Inc. generate?
KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) generated $2.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.3%. BEKE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($5.1B TTM).