Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ZG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
49
analysts
25 bullish · 1 bearish · 49 covering ZG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
23
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$71
+61.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.6B
ZG price targets
Three scenarios for where ZG stock could go
Current
~$44
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $44
Bear
$7
Base
$44
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$44+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ZG — at roughly 20x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-83.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push ZG down roughly 83% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A
ZG · NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Zillow Group is a digital real estate marketplace that connects home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals through its portfolio of brands including Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy. It generates revenue primarily through real estate agent advertising and lead generation services (~60% of revenue), home flipping operations through its Zillow Offers segment (~30%), and mortgage origination and title services. The company's key advantage is its massive network effect—with over 200 million monthly users, it has become the dominant online destination for real estate searches, creating a powerful data moat and brand recognition.
Market Cap
$10.6B
Revenue TTM
$2.6B
Net Income TTM
$23M
Net Margin
0.9%
ZG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+33.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.43
Revenue
$598M/$589M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.44
Revenue
$655M/$666M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.42
Revenue
$676M/$670M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.42
Revenue
$654M/$651M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.41/$0.43 | -4.7% | $598M/$589M | +1.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.40/$0.44 | -9.1% | $655M/$666M | -1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.44/$0.42 | +3.9% | $676M/$670M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.42 | -7.1% | $654M/$651M | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.9B
+13.7% YoY
FY2
$3.3B
+12.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.00
+999.8% YoY
FY2
$1.13
+13.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$235M
FCF Margin: 9.1%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.43
Expected Revenue
$705M
ZG beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ZG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Sales Revenue
44.9%
+9.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Sales Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 44.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.4% YoY.
ZG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $54 — implies +17.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
17.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ZG
487.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+1842% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
ZG
487.6x
vs
Communication Services
15.0x
+3161% premium
vs ZG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
487.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
19.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+3%
Communication Services
13.0x
+52%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
487.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+1842%
Communication Services
15.0x
+3161%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Communication Services
0.74x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Communication Services
8.4x
—
5Y Avg
64.7x
—
Price/FCF
44.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
+113%
Communication Services
11.8x
+282%
5Y Avg
51.0x
-12%
Price/Sales
4.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+31%
Communication Services
1.0x
+318%
5Y Avg
6.4x
-36%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Communication Services
3.45%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ZG | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg ZG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.7x | 19.1x | 13.0x+52% | — |
| Trailing PE | 487.6x | 25.1x+1842% | 15.0x+3161% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.74x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 8.4x | 64.7x |
| Price/FCF | 44.9x | 21.1x+113% | 11.8x+282% | 51.0x-12% |
| Price/Sales | 4.1x | 3.1x+31% | 1.0x+318% | 6.4x-36% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 3.45% | — |
ZG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolZG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ZG generates $235M in free cash flow at a 9.1% margin — returns 6.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-1.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$235M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$768M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$675M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
0.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-0.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
6.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$670M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
254M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageZG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Housing Market Volatility
Zillow's performance is closely tied to the health of the housing market, which can be unpredictable. Economic downturns, changes in interest rates, and fluctuations in housing inventory levels can significantly affect Zillow's revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Legal and Regulatory Risks
Zillow is subject to ongoing legal proceedings and government investigations, including a securities fraud investigation by Pomerantz LLP and a lawsuit from the FTC regarding anti-competitive practices. These issues can lead to financial penalties and reputational damage.
High Risk
Dependence on Advertising Revenue
A substantial portion of Zillow's income comes from advertising services sold to real estate professionals. Shifts in advertising budgets or preferences pose a significant risk to this revenue stream.
Medium
Revenue Recognition Concerns
Allegations regarding aggressive accounting practices, particularly concerning premature revenue recognition in Zillow's Flex model, have raised concerns about financial transparency. This could impact investor confidence and stock valuation.
Medium
High P/E Ratio
Zillow's stock has a very high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, which can elevate valuation risk. A high P/E ratio may deter potential investors if earnings do not meet market expectations.
Medium
Intense Competition
The real estate technology sector is highly competitive, requiring Zillow to continuously innovate and improve its offerings to maintain its market leadership. Emerging threats from competitors like CoStar Group could further pressure Zillow's market position.
Lower
Past Operating Losses
Zillow has incurred significant operating losses in the past and may not achieve long-term profitability. This history of losses could raise concerns among investors about the company's financial stability.
Lower
Legal Expenses
Persistent legal costs represent a structural risk to margins, potentially depressing EBITDA margins and increasing earnings volatility. Ongoing legal challenges could strain financial resources.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ZG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth
Zillow anticipates mid-teens total revenue growth for 2026, with a significant acceleration in its Rentals segment, projected at approximately 30% growth. The company also expects strong performance in its mortgages revenue, with projections around 40% growth in Q1 2026.
Margin Expansion
Zillow is focused on expanding its adjusted EBITDA margins, with a target of 45% in the mid-cycle, and has introduced a new mid-cycle net income margin target of 25%. The company has also seen an increase in its gross profit margin to 74%.
AI Integration
The company is heavily investing in and integrating artificial intelligence across its platform, from home discovery and renting to financing and closing processes. This AI-powered approach is expected to drive differentiation, improve user conversion rates, and expand market share.
Rentals Segment Strength
The Rentals division is a significant growth driver, with strong year-over-year revenue increases and nationwide rollout plans for new offerings like Zillow Pro. This segment's growth is expected to contribute substantially to overall revenue.
Improving Housing Affordability
Recent data suggests improving housing affordability due to lower mortgage rates and higher incomes, which could boost transaction activity and benefit Zillow's various business segments. This trend is likely to enhance demand for Zillow's services.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ZG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$43.88
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$39.14
+12.1% from the low
52-Week High
$90.22
-51.4% from the high
1 Month
+4.95%
3 Month
-18.32%
YTD
-33.1%
1 Year
-34.5%
3Y CAGR
-2.9%
5Y CAGR
-17.6%
10Y CAGR
+4.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ZG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.7x
vs 67.1x median
-71% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.7%
vs -1.2% median
+1265% above peer median
Net Margin
0.9%
vs -2.2% median
+141% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZG ZG Zillow Group, Inc. Class A | $10.6B | 19.7x | +13.7% | 0.9% | Buy | +61.1% |
OPE OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. | $5.0B | — | -13.8% | -29.7% | Hold | +24.3% |
COM COMP Compass, Inc. | $4.1B | 44.4x | +57.7% | 0.2% | Buy | +96.8% |
HOU HOUS Anywhere Real Estate Inc. | $2.0B | — | -1.2% | -2.2% | Hold | +7.7% |
EXP EXPI eXp World Holdings, Inc. | $1.0B | 89.7x | +6.5% | -0.5% | Buy | +75.2% |
MOV MOVE Movano Inc. | $816M | — | -44.6% | -3409.6% | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ZG Dividend and Capital Return
ZG returns 6.4% annually — null% through dividends and 6.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
6.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$670M
Estimated Shares Retired
15M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
254M
At 6.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsZG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $71, implying +61.1% from the current price of $44.
02What is the ZG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ZG is $71 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+116.5% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (+13.9%). The base case model target is $44.
03Is Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) stock overvalued in 2026?
ZG trades at 19.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ZG in 2026 are: (1) Housing Market Volatility — Zillow's performance is closely tied to the health of the housing market, which can be unpredictable. (2) Legal and Regulatory Risks — Zillow is subject to ongoing legal proceedings and government investigations, including a securities fraud investigation by Pomerantz LLP and a lawsuit from the FTC regarding anti-competitive practices. (3) Dependence on Advertising Revenue — A substantial portion of Zillow's income comes from advertising services sold to real estate professionals. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Zillow Group, Inc. Class A's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ZG will report consensus revenue of $2.9B (+13.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.00 (+999.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.3B in revenue.
06When does Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) report its next earnings?
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $705M. Over recent quarters, ZG has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Zillow Group, Inc. Class A generate?
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) generated $235M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.1%. ZG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($670M TTM).