Upside case
Bull case
$65+110.6%
BRX would need investors to value it at roughly 57x earnings — about 30x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 30 covering BRX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$33
+7.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$31 – $65
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
BRX price targets
Three scenarios for where BRX stock could go
Current
~$31
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $31
Bear
$31
Base
$49
Bull
$65
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$49+59.9%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$31+0.7%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BRX down roughly 1% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
BRX · NYSEReal EstateREIT - RetailDecember year-end
Brixmor Property Group is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates a national portfolio of open-air shopping centers across prime retail locations. It generates revenue primarily through collecting rent from retailers — with major tenants including TJX, Kroger, and Walmart — and property management fees. Its competitive advantage lies in owning a high-quality portfolio of 395 shopping centers in established trade areas, creating a network effect that attracts essential retailers serving local communities.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$1.4B
Net Income TTM
$444M
Net Margin
32.0%
BRX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+36.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.28/$0.21
Revenue
$339M/$332M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.31/$0.23
Revenue
$341M/$339M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.24
Revenue
$352M/$348M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.25
Revenue
$354M/$349M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.28/$0.21 | +31.3% | $339M/$332M | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31/$0.23 | +36.2% | $341M/$339M | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.44/$0.24 | +84.2% | $352M/$348M | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.58/$0.25 | +131.4% | $354M/$349M | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+3.9% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.86
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$3.09
+7.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$663M
FCF Margin: 47.7%
Next Earnings
July 27, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.24
Expected Revenue
$353M
BRX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BRX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $33 — implies +6.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
6.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BRX
24.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
BRX
24.7x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
In line with benchmark
vs BRX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.7x
vs
5Y Average
38.0x
35% discount
Forward PE
26.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+43%
Real Estate
25.1x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1%
Real Estate
24.1x
+3%
5Y Avg
38.0x
-35%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Real Estate
1.34x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+7%
Real Estate
17.0x
-4%
5Y Avg
14.5x
+13%
Price/FCF
14.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
-30%
Real Estate
15.4x
-6%
5Y Avg
12.7x
+14%
Price/Sales
6.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+124%
Real Estate
3.0x
+130%
5Y Avg
6.1x
+14%
Dividend Yield
3.72%
S&P 500
1.91%
+95%
Real Estate
4.62%
-20%
5Y Avg
4.08%
-9%
| Metric | BRX | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg BRX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.8x | 18.8x+43% | 25.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.7x | 24.4x | 24.1x | 38.0x-35% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.34x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3x | 15.2x | 17.0x | 14.5x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 14.5x | 20.7x-30% | 15.4x | 12.7x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 6.9x | 3.1x+124% | 3.0x+130% | 6.1x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.72% | 1.91% | 4.62% | 4.08% |
BRX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBRX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BRX pays 3.7% total shareholder yield with 37.4% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
78.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
37.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
32.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.44
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
37.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$362M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.5B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
8.3× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (4.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
3.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$449000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.15
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
91.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
307M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageBRX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
Broader economic slowdowns can negatively impact consumer spending and retailer expansion, potentially cooling leasing demand for Brixmor's properties. This could lead to significant declines in rental income and occupancy rates.
High Risk
E-commerce Trends
The ongoing shift towards e-commerce poses a substantial risk to brick-and-mortar retail, particularly if key tenants fail to adapt to the changing retail environment. This trend could result in reduced foot traffic and lower sales for Brixmor's tenants, adversely affecting occupancy and rental income.
High Risk
Tenant Disruption
Potential disruptions from tenants, such as bankruptcies or difficulties in adapting to market changes, can significantly affect occupancy rates and rental income. A notable increase in tenant defaults could lead to a material decline in Brixmor's financial performance.
High Risk
Inflation and Interest Rates
Inflationary pressures can increase operating costs, while rising interest rates may lead to higher borrowing costs. This combination can severely impact Brixmor's profitability and financial flexibility, potentially constraining growth opportunities.
Medium
Occupancy Rate Fluctuations
A decrease in leased occupancy rates, as observed in the past, can indicate challenges in maintaining tenant agreements. This may exacerbate financial strain and lead to lower revenue for Brixmor.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses suggest that BRX may be overvalued based on certain metrics, indicating a need for caution when considering new positions. An overvaluation could lead to significant price corrections if market sentiment shifts.
Medium
Financial Strength
While Brixmor shows strong profitability and momentum, its financial strength is noted as a potential concern due to high debt levels. This could limit the company's ability to navigate economic downturns effectively.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BRX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
Brixmor has demonstrated robust financial results, including increases in comparable leasing spreads and same-store net operating income (NOI). In 2025, the company reported revenue of $1.37 billion and earnings of $385.55 million, representing significant year-over-year increases. The company also beat Q1 2026 earnings estimates by 131%.
Occupancy Growth Potential
There is significant potential for occupancy growth within Brixmor's portfolio. Current anchor occupancy is at 95.6%, with the possibility of reaching 96-97%. Small shop leased occupancy may also improve over time.
Favorable Leasing Environment
Robust average base rent increases of 37% and new lease spreads of 34.4% indicate a favorable leasing environment. This is supported by strong leasing momentum and a healthy pipeline of signed but not yet commenced (SNO) leases.
Below-Market Leases
Analysts highlight that Brixmor's portfolio of below-market leases could support future rental revenue and net operating income once renewed. This embedded lease backlog provides visibility into potential income uplift without requiring major new acquisitions or developments.
Strategic Positioning
Brixmor's focus on grocery-anchored community and neighborhood shopping centers positions it well to capitalize on consumer trends, particularly in core, defensive retail categories like grocery and off-price apparel.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BRX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.91
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.66
+25.3% from the low
52-Week High
$32.80
-5.8% from the high
1 Month
+2.96%
3 Month
+4.60%
YTD
+19.1%
1 Year
+19.9%
3Y CAGR
+12.9%
5Y CAGR
+6.5%
10Y CAGR
+1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BRX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.8x
vs 31.1x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.9%
vs +7.7% median
-49% below peer median
Net Margin
32.0%
vs 35.8% median
-11% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BRX BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | $9.5B | 26.8x | +3.9% | 32.0% | Buy | +7.2% |
KIM KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | $16.4B | 29.6x | +7.7% | 28.5% | Hold | +3.2% |
REG REG Regency Centers Corporation | $14.1B | 31.1x | +7.5% | 37.4% | Buy | +8.7% |
SIT SITC SITE Centers Corp. | $250M | — | -3.0% | 187.9% | Hold | +67.7% |
IVT IVT InvenTrust Properties Corp. | $2.7B | 210.2x | +9.7% | 35.8% | Buy | +6.3% |
WHL WHLR Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc. | $1M | — | +8.7% | 5.9% | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BRX Dividend and Capital Return
BRX returns 3.7% total yield, led by a 3.72% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.72%
Payout Ratio
91.7%
How BRX Splits Its Return
Div 3.72%
Dividend 3.72%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.2%
5Y Div CAGR
15.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$449000
Estimated Shares Retired
14.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
307M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.15 | +5.5% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| 2024 | $1.09 | +4.8% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2023 | $1.04 | +8.3% | 0.0% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $0.96 | +11.6% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsBRX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $33, implying +7.2% from the current price of $31. The bear case scenario is $31 and the bull case is $65.
02What is the BRX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BRX is $33 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $37 (+19.7% from today), and the low-end target is $29 (-6.2%). The base case model target is $49.
03Is Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) stock overvalued in 2026?
BRX trades at 26.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BRX in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — Broader economic slowdowns can negatively impact consumer spending and retailer expansion, potentially cooling leasing demand for Brixmor's properties. (2) E-commerce Trends — The ongoing shift towards e-commerce poses a substantial risk to brick-and-mortar retail, particularly if key tenants fail to adapt to the changing retail environment. (3) Tenant Disruption — Potential disruptions from tenants, such as bankruptcies or difficulties in adapting to market changes, can significantly affect occupancy rates and rental income. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Brixmor Property Group Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BRX will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+3.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.86 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) report its next earnings?
Brixmor Property Group Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-27. Consensus expects EPS of $0.24 and revenue of $353M. Over recent quarters, BRX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Brixmor Property Group Inc. generate?
Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) generated $663M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 47.7%. BRX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.7% yield) and share repurchases ($449000 TTM).