Upside case
Bull case
$136+72.4%
REG would need investors to value it at roughly 56x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Regency Centers Corporation (REG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 covering REG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
13
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$80
+1.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$22 – $136
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.4B
REG price targets
Three scenarios for where REG stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$22
Base
$95
Bull
$136
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$95+19.8%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$22-72.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 24x multiple contraction could push REG down roughly 73% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Regency Centers Corporation
REG · NASDAQReal EstateREIT - RetailDecember year-end
Regency Centers is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops grocery-anchored shopping centers in affluent suburban neighborhoods. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of retail properties — with anchor tenants like Publix, Whole Foods, and Kroger providing stable cash flow — and also earns development fees from new projects. The company's competitive advantage lies in its high-quality portfolio concentrated in affluent, densely populated trade areas with strong demographics and limited new retail development.
Market Cap
$14.4B
Revenue TTM
$1.7B
Net Income TTM
$630M
Net Margin
37.4%
REG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.12
Revenue
$395M/$369M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.15/$1.15
Revenue
$387M/$389M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.17/$0.62
Revenue
$455M/$403M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.62
Revenue
$419M/$411M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.16/$1.12 | +3.6% | $395M/$369M | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.15/$1.15 | +0.0% | $387M/$389M | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.17/$0.62 | +89.3% | $455M/$403M | +13.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.68/$0.62 | +9.3% | $419M/$411M | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.8B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$1.8B
+5.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.24
-5.8% YoY
FY2
$3.38
+4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$700M
FCF Margin: 41.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
REG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
REG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Shopping Centers
100.0%
+6.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Shopping Centers is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.7% YoY.
REG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $74 — implies -5.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
5.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
REG
28.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+11% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
REG
28.0x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+16% premium
vs REG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.0x
vs
5Y Average
30.0x
7% discount
Forward PE
32.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+70%
Real Estate
26.4x
+23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+11%
Real Estate
24.1x
+16%
5Y Avg
30.0x
-7%
PEG Ratio
0.46x
S&P 500
1.72x
-73%
Real Estate
1.25x
-63%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+36%
Real Estate
16.7x
+24%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+37%
Price/FCF
36.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+74%
Real Estate
15.4x
+138%
5Y Avg
27.7x
+32%
Price/Sales
9.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+197%
Real Estate
3.0x
+212%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+4%
Dividend Yield
3.56%
S&P 500
1.87%
+91%
Real Estate
4.66%
-24%
5Y Avg
3.73%
-5%
| Metric | REG | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg REG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.5x | 19.1x+70% | 26.4x+23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.0x | 25.1x+11% | 24.1x+16% | 30.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.46x | 1.72x-73% | 1.25x-63% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.7x | 15.2x+36% | 16.7x+24% | 15.0x+37% |
| Price/FCF | 36.7x | 21.1x+74% | 15.4x+138% | 27.7x+32% |
| Price/Sales | 9.3x | 3.1x+197% | 3.0x+212% | 9.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.56% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 3.73% |
REG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolREG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
REG pays 3.6% total shareholder yield with 54.0% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
60.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
54.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.44
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
54.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$121M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.8B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
8.3× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (3.5%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.81
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
97.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
183M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageREG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory delays
Regeneron faces significant risks from regulatory delays, particularly with fill/finish facilities for multiple drugs. Such delays can hinder product launches and affect revenue generation, impacting the company's overall financial performance.
High Risk
Technology & innovation risks
The company has identified 12 out of 47 risks related to technology and innovation, including potential issues with its collaboration with Sanofi. These risks could impede Regeneron's ability to develop and commercialize new therapies, affecting future revenue streams.
Medium
Tariffs & trade restrictions
Regeneron is exposed to potential impacts from tariffs and trade restrictions that could increase operational costs and disrupt its supply chain. Such changes could lead to higher expenses and reduced profitability.
Medium
Production & manufacturing risks
Production and manufacturing account for 10 out of 47 identified risks for Regeneron. Challenges in these areas could lead to delays in product availability and increased costs, negatively impacting sales.
Medium
Market acceptance risks
The commercial success of Regeneron's products is contingent upon their acceptance and utilization in the market. Negative outcomes from clinical trials or unfavorable regulatory recommendations could significantly affect sales and market share.
Lower
Economic & credit market risks
Regeneron may face challenges from economic weakness and volatile credit markets that could impact its operational funding and investment capabilities. This could hinder the company's growth prospects and financial stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why REG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Resilient, Grocery-Anchored Portfolio
Regency Centers owns a diversified portfolio of 483 properties, with 80% being grocery-anchored. These centers benefit from consistent foot traffic, as grocery stores are essential and less susceptible to online competition, with sales per square foot above the national average.
Strong Leasing Activity and Rental Income Growth
The company anticipates improved same-store net operating income (SSNOI) growth in 2025 and 2026, driven by strong leasing activity and a significant pipeline of signed-but-not-occupied (SNO) spaces. Recent earnings reports show cash rent spreads at 12% and renewal spreads at 13% in Q4 2025.
Positive Financial Performance and Outlook
Regency Centers has demonstrated positive financial trends, with revenue increasing by 7.17% in 2025 and earnings rising by 32.86%. The company expects earnings per share to grow by 4.54% in the coming year.
Strategic Redevelopment and Market Position
Regency Centers is actively engaged in strategic redevelopment efforts, focusing on high-quality assets in population-dense, affluent markets. This positions them well for continued growth, capitalizing on favorable market dynamics.
Technical Indicators
A 'golden cross' has occurred on REG's chart, indicating a potential breakout, as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. This technical signal is often seen as bullish.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
REG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.89
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$66.86
+18.0% from the low
52-Week High
$81.66
-3.4% from the high
1 Month
+2.95%
3 Month
+4.52%
YTD
+16.1%
1 Year
+8.8%
3Y CAGR
+9.1%
5Y CAGR
+4.8%
10Y CAGR
+0.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
REG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.5x
vs 35.2x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +6.1% median
-34% below peer median
Net Margin
37.4%
vs 32.1% median
+16% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
REG REG Regency Centers Corporation | $14.4B | 32.5x | +4.0% | 37.4% | Buy | +1.6% |
KIM KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | $15.9B | 30.5x | +6.1% | 28.5% | Hold | +3.0% |
FRT FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | $10.0B | 39.9x | +6.5% | 32.1% | Buy | -3.1% |
SIT SITC SITE Centers Corp. | $294M | — | -28.6% | 72.1% | Hold | +42.6% |
BRX BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | $9.2B | 29.8x | +5.2% | 32.0% | Buy | +2.9% |
AKR AKR Acadia Realty Trust | $2.9B | 78.4x | +9.2% | 37.7% | Buy | -6.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
REG Dividend and Capital Return
REG returns 3.6% total yield, led by a 3.56% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
3.56%
Payout Ratio
97.0%
How REG Splits Its Return
Div 3.56%
Dividend 3.56%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.81
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.4%
5Y Div CAGR
3.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9M
Estimated Shares Retired
112.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
183M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.87 | +5.7% | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $2.72 | +3.6% | 1.6% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $2.62 | +3.8% | 0.3% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $2.52 | +4.8% | 0.8% | 4.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsREG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Regency Centers Corporation (REG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Regency Centers Corporation (REG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $80, implying +1.6% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $22 and the bull case is $136.
02What is the REG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for REG is $80 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $85 (+7.7% from today), and the low-end target is $74 (-6.2%). The base case model target is $95.
03Is Regency Centers Corporation (REG) stock overvalued in 2026?
REG trades at 32.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Regency Centers Corporation (REG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for REG in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory delays — Regeneron faces significant risks from regulatory delays, particularly with fill/finish facilities for multiple drugs. (2) Technology & innovation risks — The company has identified 12 out of 47 risks related to technology and innovation, including potential issues with its collaboration with Sanofi. (3) Tariffs & trade restrictions — Regeneron is exposed to potential impacts from tariffs and trade restrictions that could increase operational costs and disrupt its supply chain. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Regency Centers Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates REG will report consensus revenue of $1.8B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.24 (-5.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.8B in revenue.
06When does Regency Centers Corporation (REG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for REG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Regency Centers Corporation generate?
Regency Centers Corporation (REG) generated $700M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 41.6%. REG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($9M TTM).