Upside case
Bull case
$132+77.7%
CMS would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering CMS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$81
+9.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$54 – $132
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.9B
CMS price targets
Three scenarios for where CMS stock could go
Current
~$74
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $74
Bear
$54
Base
$85
Bull
$132
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$85+14.5%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$54-27.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push CMS down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CMS Energy Corporation
CMS · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
CMS Energy is a regulated utility holding company that provides electricity and natural gas services primarily to Michigan customers through its subsidiaries. It generates revenue from regulated electric and gas utility operations — which account for the vast majority of earnings — supplemented by independent power production and energy marketing through its Enterprises segment. The company's primary competitive advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, providing stable cash flows with returns approved by state regulators.
Market Cap
$22.9B
Revenue TTM
$8.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
12.5%
CMS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.71/$0.68
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.86
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.95/$0.93
Revenue
$2.2B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.13/$1.11
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.71/$0.68 | +4.4% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93/$0.86 | +8.1% | $2.0B/$1.8B | +9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.95/$0.93 | +1.8% | $2.2B/$1.9B | +18.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.13/$1.11 | +1.8% | $2.7B/$2.5B | +11.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.3B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$10.0B
+7.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.82
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$4.04
+5.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.0B
FCF Margin: -23.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CMS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CMS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Residential Utility Services
57.3%
+16.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Residential Utility Services is the largest disclosed segment at 57.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 16.4% YoY.
CMS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $71 — implies -6.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CMS
21.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
17% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
CMS
21.0x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+6% premium
vs CMS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.0x
vs
5Y Average
19.1x
+10% premium
Forward PE
19.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+0%
Utilities
17.2x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-17%
Utilities
19.7x
+6%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+10%
PEG Ratio
3.51x
S&P 500
1.75x
+101%
Utilities
1.73x
+103%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-6%
Utilities
11.5x
+24%
5Y Avg
13.6x
+5%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-14%
Utilities
2.2x
+23%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+11%
Dividend Yield
2.98%
S&P 500
1.88%
+59%
Utilities
3.07%
-3%
5Y Avg
3.08%
-3%
| Metric | CMS | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg CMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.1x | 19.1x | 17.2x+11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.0x | 25.2x-17% | 19.7x | 19.1x+10% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.51x | 1.75x+101% | 1.73x+103% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.3x | 11.5x+24% | 13.6x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | — |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-14% | 2.2x+23% | 2.4x+11% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.98% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 3.08% |
CMS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCMS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CMS earns 19.5% operating margin on regulated earnings, 3.0% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.68
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
19.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$615M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$18.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
3.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.21
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
61.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
309M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageCMS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
Shifts in energy policies or rate structures could negatively affect CMS's revenue generation, as the company depends on regulatory approvals for rate increases. Any significant changes in regulations could lead to a material decline in earnings.
High Risk
Financial Strength Concerns
CMS has a low financial strength rating, indicating potential vulnerabilities in its balance sheet and liquidity. This could impact the company's ability to finance operations and growth initiatives.
High Risk
Rising Operational Costs
Increased costs for fuel, maintenance, and general expenses are straining profit margins. If these costs continue to rise, they could significantly erode profitability.
Medium
Financing and Dilution
The company plans to issue significant amounts of equity, which could lead to dilution for existing shareholders if market conditions or growth assumptions change. This could affect shareholder value and investor sentiment.
Medium
Market Volatility
Energy market volatility and macroeconomic factors like inflation can impact operational costs and profitability. Fluctuations in energy prices could lead to unpredictable earnings.
Medium
Competition
Increasing competition from alternative energy suppliers and self-generation technologies could threaten CMS's market share. This competitive pressure may lead to reduced pricing power and lower revenues.
Lower
Storm Costs
Storm-driven costs have weighed on quarterly results and could impact earnings. While these costs are variable, they can lead to unexpected financial strain during adverse weather events.
Lower
Customer Affordability
Customer affordability remains a central theme, potentially influencing rate decisions. If customers struggle to pay for services, it could lead to increased delinquencies and impact revenue.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CMS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Solid Financial Performance and Growth
CMS Energy has demonstrated year-over-year earnings growth, driven by its electric and gas utilities. The company reported strong first-quarter 2026 earnings, exceeding analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, with revenue in 2025 increasing by 13.63% compared to the previous year.
Strategic Capital Investments
CMS Energy has a significant capital expenditure plan, with a $20 billion five-year plan (2025-2029) focused on infrastructure upgrades and clean energy generation. This investment is expected to expand its rate base and support long-term adjusted EPS growth targets of 6%–8%.
Shareholder Returns and Dividend Growth
CMS Energy has a strong track record of returning value to shareholders, including an 18-year dividend growth streak and a target of becoming a Dividend Aristocrat by 2032. The company supports a current dividend yield of around 3.0%, which is attractive to income-focused investors.
Analyst Confidence
A majority of analysts maintain a positive outlook on CMS Energy, with consensus ratings leaning towards 'Buy' or 'Moderate Buy.' This reflects a strong belief in the company's growth potential and operational strength.
Growth from NorthStar Clean Energy
The company's NorthStar Clean Energy segment adds a growth dimension to its traditionally defensive profile, positioning CMS Energy to capitalize on the increasing demand for clean energy solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CMS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$74.05
52W Range Position
50%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$67.71
+9.4% from the low
52-Week High
$80.36
-7.9% from the high
1 Month
-5.46%
3 Month
+1.66%
YTD
+5.2%
1 Year
+0.9%
3Y CAGR
+6.6%
5Y CAGR
+2.8%
10Y CAGR
+6.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CMS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.1x
vs 18.9x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +3.4% median
+54% above peer median
Net Margin
12.5%
vs 14.6% median
-14% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CMS CMS CMS Energy Corporation | $22.9B | 19.1x | +5.2% | 12.5% | Buy | +9.4% |
WEC WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. | $37.1B | 20.4x | +5.5% | 16.2% | Hold | +7.8% |
EVR EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $18.6B | 19.1x | +3.4% | 14.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
NWE NWE Northwestern Energy Group Inc | $4.4B | 18.9x | +5.4% | 10.2% | Hold | -6.7% |
OTT OTTR Otter Tail Corporation | $3.7B | 16.1x | -0.5% | 21.3% | Hold | -8.9% |
AVA AVA Avista Corporation | $3.3B | 15.8x | +3.4% | 9.8% | Hold | +0.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CMS Dividend and Capital Return
CMS returns 3.0% total yield, led by a 2.98% dividend, raised 19 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.98%
Payout Ratio
61.9%
How CMS Splits Its Return
Div 2.98%
Dividend 2.98%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.21
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
19Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.7%
5Y Div CAGR
5.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
309M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.17 | +5.3% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $2.06 | +5.6% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | +6.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $1.84 | +5.7% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsCMS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $81, implying +9.4% from the current price of $74. The bear case scenario is $54 and the bull case is $132.
02What is the CMS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CMS is $81 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $85 (+14.8% from today), and the low-end target is $79 (+6.7%). The base case model target is $85.
03Is CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) stock overvalued in 2026?
CMS trades at 19.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CMS in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Changes — Shifts in energy policies or rate structures could negatively affect CMS's revenue generation, as the company depends on regulatory approvals for rate increases. (2) Financial Strength Concerns — CMS has a low financial strength rating, indicating potential vulnerabilities in its balance sheet and liquidity. (3) Rising Operational Costs — Increased costs for fuel, maintenance, and general expenses are straining profit margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CMS Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CMS will report consensus revenue of $9.3B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.82 (+3.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.0B in revenue.
06When does CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CMS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does CMS Energy Corporation generate?
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) had a free cash outflow of $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.1%. CMS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).