Upside case
Bull case
$3-95.5%
The bull case prices DAY at 1x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Dayforce Inc (DAY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering DAY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
15
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$68
-3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$1 – $3
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.2B
DAY price targets
Three scenarios for where DAY stock could go
Current
~$70
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $70
Bear
$1
Base
$2
Bull
$3
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$2-96.6%
At 1x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1-97.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 25x multiple contraction could push DAY down roughly 98% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Dayforce Inc
DAY · NYSETechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
Dayforce Inc is a human capital management software company that provides a unified cloud platform for HR, payroll, benefits, workforce management, and talent management. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its Dayforce platform — which serves mid-to-large enterprises — and its Powerpay solution for small businesses, with additional income from bureau services for payroll processing. The company's key advantage is its single-application architecture that eliminates data silos across HR functions, creating operational efficiencies and stickiness with enterprise clients.
Market Cap
$11.2B
Revenue TTM
$1.9B
Net Income TTM
-$150M
Net Margin
-7.9%
DAY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
55%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
70%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-23.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.58/$0.55
Revenue
$482M/$477M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.61/$0.52
Revenue
$465M/$482M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.56
Revenue
$482M/$516M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.37/$0.70
Revenue
—/$516M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.58/$0.55 | +5.8% | $482M/$477M | +1.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.61/$0.52 | +17.3% | $465M/$482M | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.37/$0.56 | -33.9% | $482M/$516M | -6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.37/$0.70 | -47.1% | —/$516M | — |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.2B
+15.0% YoY
FY2
$2.5B
+12.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.13
+86.0% YoY
FY2
$0.05
+140.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$166M
FCF Margin: 8.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DAY beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
DAY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Recurring Revenue
47.4%
+17.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
69.0%
+17.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Recurring Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 47.4% of FY 2024 revenue, up 17.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 69.0%, up 17.4% YoY.
DAY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $25 — implies -64.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
64.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DAY
635.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+2498% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
DAY
635.1x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+2089% premium
vs DAY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
635.1x
vs
5Y Average
191.8x
+231% premium
Forward PE
25.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+35%
Technology
22.3x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
635.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+2498%
Technology
29.0x
+2089%
5Y Avg
191.8x
+231%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
37.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+148%
Technology
16.6x
+127%
5Y Avg
40.9x
-8%
Price/FCF
65.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+215%
Technology
19.2x
+239%
5Y Avg
84.6x
-23%
Price/Sales
6.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+105%
Technology
2.4x
+161%
5Y Avg
11.1x
-43%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DAY | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg DAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.5x | 18.8x+35% | 22.3x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 635.1x | 24.4x+2498% | 29.0x+2089% | 191.8x+231% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.7x | 15.2x+148% | 16.6x+127% | 40.9x |
| Price/FCF | 65.2x | 20.7x+215% | 19.2x+239% | 84.6x-23% |
| Price/Sales | 6.4x | 3.1x+105% | 2.4x+161% | 11.1x-43% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
DAY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDAY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
DAY generates $166M in free cash flow at a 8.8% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-7.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.94
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$166M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$580M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$653M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.9× FCF
~3.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-5.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$36M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
160M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDAY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Private Equity Acquisition
Dayforce Inc. was acquired by private equity firm Thoma Bravo, which may lead to restructuring risks and changes in strategic direction.
Medium
Rebranding Transition
The company recently rebranded from Ceridian HCM to Dayforce Inc., which could create short-term confusion among investors and customers.
Medium
Market Perception
Dayforce is attempting to redefine its role in the HCM market, which may face resistance or skepticism from competitors and clients.
Lower
Stock Price Volatility
Analysts have a narrow price target range ($69-$70), suggesting limited upside potential or downside risk in the near term.
High Risk
Industry Competition
The HCM software industry is rapidly evolving, and Dayforce faces intense competition from established players and new entrants.
Medium
Integration Risks
The company's platform combines multiple HR functions, which may face technical or adoption challenges among users.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DAY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Rebranding and market perception
Dayforce has successfully rebranded and is reshaping the perception of modern Human Capital Management (HCM) vendors, positioning itself as a leader in the industry.
Comprehensive HCM platform
Dayforce offers a unified platform integrating payroll, HR, benefits, talent, and workforce management, delivering simplicity and scalability for businesses.
Strategic acquisition by Thoma Bravo
The $12.3 billion acquisition by private equity firm Thoma Bravo highlights Dayforce's strong market position and growth potential in the HCM software industry.
User-friendly mobile app
The Dayforce app provides employees with easy access to manage schedules, time off, benefits, and other day-to-day tasks, enhancing user engagement and satisfaction.
Industry transformation leadership
Dayforce is at the center of the evolving HCM software industry, driving innovation and setting new standards for modern workforce management solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DAY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$69.86
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$49.65
+40.7% from the low
52-Week High
$69.86
0.0% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
—
YTD
+0.9%
1 Year
+24.2%
3Y CAGR
+1.2%
5Y CAGR
-5.2%
10Y CAGR
+8.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DAY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.5x
vs 12.5x median
+104% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.0%
vs +8.0% median
+88% above peer median
Net Margin
-7.9%
vs 20.1% median
-139% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DAY DAY Dayforce Inc | $11.2B | 25.5x | +15.0% | -7.9% | Hold | -3.1% |
PAY PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $6.8B | 11.5x | +12.2% | 22.4% | Hold | +21.5% |
PAY PAYX Paychex, Inc. | $35.3B | 17.9x | +8.0% | 26.4% | Hold | +7.5% |
ADP ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | $87.9B | 19.7x | +5.3% | 20.1% | Hold | +11.5% |
PCT PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $5.4B | 12.5x | +11.6% | 14.9% | Buy | +45.5% |
HCK HCKT The Hackett Group, Inc. | $262M | 6.9x | +1.5% | 4.7% | Buy | +58.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DAY Dividend and Capital Return
DAY returns 0.3% annually — null% through dividends and 0.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$36M
Estimated Shares Retired
516.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
160M
FAQ
7 questionsDAY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Dayforce Inc (DAY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Dayforce Inc (DAY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $68, implying -3.1% from the current price of $70. The bear case scenario is $1 and the bull case is $3.
02What is the DAY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DAY is $68 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $71 (+1.6% from today), and the low-end target is $53 (-24.1%). The base case model target is $2.
03Is Dayforce Inc (DAY) stock overvalued in 2026?
DAY trades at 25.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Dayforce Inc (DAY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DAY in 2026 are: (1) Private Equity Acquisition — Dayforce Inc. (2) Industry Competition — The HCM software industry is rapidly evolving, and Dayforce faces intense competition from established players and new entrants. (3) Rebranding Transition — The company recently rebranded from Ceridian HCM to Dayforce Inc. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Dayforce Inc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DAY will report consensus revenue of $2.2B (+15.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.13 (+86.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.5B in revenue.
06When does Dayforce Inc (DAY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DAY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Dayforce Inc generate?
Dayforce Inc (DAY) generated $166M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.8%. DAY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($36M TTM).