Upside case
Bull case
$148+73.2%
DCI would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
14
analysts
5 bullish · 3 bearish · 14 covering DCI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
6
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$100
+17.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$71 – $148
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.9B
DCI price targets
Three scenarios for where DCI stock could go
Current
~$86
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $86
Bear
$71
Base
$112
Bull
$148
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$112+31.4%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$71-17.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push DCI down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Donaldson Company, Inc.
DCI · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryJuly year-end
Donaldson Company is a global manufacturer of filtration systems and replacement parts for industrial and engine applications. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Engine Products (~60% of sales) serving construction, mining, and transportation markets, and Industrial Products (~40%) providing air and liquid purification systems for manufacturing and processing industries. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise across diverse filtration applications and strong relationships with OEMs across multiple industrial sectors.
Market Cap
$9.9B
Revenue TTM
$3.8B
Net Income TTM
$439M
Net Margin
11.5%
DCI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.02
Revenue
$981M/$951M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.92
Revenue
$935M/$923M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.90
Revenue
$896M/$899M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.06/$1.05
Revenue
$995M/$974M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.03/$1.02 | +1.0% | $981M/$951M | +3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94/$0.92 | +1.8% | $935M/$923M | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.83/$0.90 | -7.8% | $896M/$899M | -0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.06/$1.05 | +1.0% | $995M/$974M | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.0B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$4.2B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.82
+2.8% YoY
FY2
$3.97
+3.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$389M
FCF Margin: 10.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DCI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
DCI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Mobile Solutions Segment
62.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States And Canada
44.2%
+3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Mobile Solutions Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 62.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
United States And Canada is the largest reported region at 44.2%, up 3.1% YoY.
DCI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $79 — implies -7.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
7.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DCI
28.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+15% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
DCI
28.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+10% premium
vs DCI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.0x
vs
5Y Average
23.5x
+19% premium
Forward PE
21.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+15%
Industrials
21.2x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+15%
Industrials
25.6x
+10%
5Y Avg
23.5x
+19%
PEG Ratio
3.18x
S&P 500
1.66x
+92%
Industrials
1.65x
+93%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+5%
Industrials
13.9x
+15%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+6%
Price/FCF
29.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+41%
Industrials
20.0x
+45%
5Y Avg
26.3x
+11%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-13%
Industrials
1.6x
+72%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+10%
Dividend Yield
1.28%
S&P 500
1.91%
-33%
Industrials
1.21%
+5%
5Y Avg
1.44%
-11%
| Metric | DCI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg DCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.6x | 18.8x+15% | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.0x | 24.4x+15% | 25.6x | 23.5x+19% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.18x | 1.66x+92% | 1.65x+93% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9x | 15.2x | 13.9x+15% | 15.0x |
| Price/FCF | 29.2x | 20.7x+41% | 20.0x+45% | 26.3x+11% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-13% | 1.6x+72% | 2.4x+10% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.28% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.44% |
DCI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDCI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DCI generates $389M in free cash flow at a 10.2% margin — 21.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.72
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$389M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$180M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$550M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$332M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.10
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
35.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
116M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDCI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Miss
Fiscal Year 2026 Second Quarter Earnings Miss and Lowered Guidance has led to a 10% stock decline.
Medium
China Exposure
Analysts caution about risks related to Donaldson's exposure to the Chinese market.
Medium
Input Cost Pressure
Rising input costs are identified as a potential headwind for profitability.
Lower
Electrification Risks
Potential risks associated with shifts toward electrification in industrial markets.
Medium
Bioprocessing Delays
Delays in bioprocessing could impact revenue streams in related filtration segments.
High Risk
Operational Sensitivity
Sensitivity to revenue growth and margin changes could significantly affect valuation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DCI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Record sales performance
Donaldson Company reported record sales across all three segments in its recent fiscal Q2 2026 update, reinforcing confidence in its full-year outlook.
Strong stock performance
Donaldson's stock has surged by 17% over the last three months, reflecting positive market sentiment.
Global filtration leadership
As a global leader in technology-led filtration products, Donaldson serves diverse industries and advanced markets with a presence in over 140 locations worldwide.
First-fit supplier advantage
Donaldson is the world's leading first-fit supplier of air filtration, exhaust, and hydraulic systems for Aerospace & Defense Markets, providing heavy-duty protection.
Innovative heritage
Founded in 1915, Donaldson has a long history of innovation, beginning with the invention of the air intake filter, which underpins its expertise in filtration solutions.
Positive analyst outlook
Optimistic investors highlight a DCF fair value near the current share price, with a single analyst target of US$99.80, suggesting potential upside.
Industrial filtration demand
Donaldson's solutions for managing dust, fume, and mist filtration are critical for complex industrial operations, driving steady demand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DCI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$85.52
52W Range Position
39%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$67.71
+26.3% from the low
52-Week High
$112.84
-24.2% from the high
1 Month
+3.71%
3 Month
+1.77%
YTD
-4.9%
1 Year
+25.0%
3Y CAGR
+11.9%
5Y CAGR
+7.2%
10Y CAGR
+9.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DCI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.6x
vs 22.7x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs +5.5% median
-18% below peer median
Net Margin
11.5%
vs 14.2% median
-19% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DCI DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | $9.9B | 21.6x | +4.5% | 11.5% | Hold | +17.3% |
PH PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $120.3B | 30.5x | +3.1% | 16.6% | Buy | +9.9% |
MWA MWA Mueller Water Products, Inc. | $4.1B | 17.7x | +3.8% | 14.2% | Hold | +23.4% |
ROP ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | $34.0B | 15.1x | +8.1% | 21.1% | Buy | +38.6% |
FEL FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4.6B | 22.7x | +5.5% | 6.9% | Hold | -4.0% |
CEC CECO CECO Environmental Corp. | $3.5B | 54.1x | +12.9% | 2.1% | Buy | +7.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DCI Dividend and Capital Return
DCI returns capital mainly through $332M/year in buybacks (3.3% buyback yield), with a modest 1.28% dividend — combining for 4.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 30 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
1.28%
Payout Ratio
35.9%
How DCI Splits Its Return
Div 1.28%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 1.28%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.10
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
30Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.7%
5Y Div CAGR
6.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$332M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
116M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.17 | +10.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% |
| 2024 | $1.06 | +8.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $0.98 | +7.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% |
| 2022 | $0.91 | +4.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsDCI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $100, implying +17.3% from the current price of $86. The bear case scenario is $71 and the bull case is $148.
02What is the DCI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DCI is $100 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $123 (+43.8% from today), and the low-end target is $91 (+6.4%). The base case model target is $112.
03Is Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) stock overvalued in 2026?
DCI trades at 21.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DCI in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Miss — Fiscal Year 2026 Second Quarter Earnings Miss and Lowered Guidance has led to a 10% stock decline. (2) Operational Sensitivity — Sensitivity to revenue growth and margin changes could significantly affect valuation. (3) China Exposure — Analysts caution about risks related to Donaldson's exposure to the Chinese market. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Donaldson Company, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DCI will report consensus revenue of $4.0B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.82 (+2.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.2B in revenue.
06When does Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DCI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Donaldson Company, Inc. generate?
Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) generated $389M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.2%. DCI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($332M TTM).