Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ELAN more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 20 covering ELAN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
4
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$28
+6.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.1B
ELAN price targets
Three scenarios for where ELAN stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Elanco Animal Health Incorporated
ELAN · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericDecember year-end
Elanco Animal Health is a global animal health company that develops and markets products for both companion pets and farm animals. It generates revenue primarily through pharmaceuticals and vaccines for pets (~50% of sales) and farm animals (~50%), with additional income from nutritional health products and parasiticides. The company's competitive advantage lies in its broad product portfolio across multiple species and its established relationships with veterinarians and animal producers worldwide.
Market Cap
$13.1B
Revenue TTM
$4.9B
Net Income TTM
-$242M
Net Margin
-4.9%
ELAN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+38.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.26/$0.20
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.19/$0.13
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.11
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.34
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.26/$0.20 | +30.0% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +13.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.19/$0.13 | +46.2% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.11 | +18.2% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.40/$0.34 | +17.6% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +7.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.0B
+5.6% YoY
FY2
$5.2B
+5.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.08
+118.1% YoY
FY2
$0.01
-83.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$315M
FCF Margin: 6.4%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.34
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
ELAN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ELAN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Farm Animal
33.4%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
52.6%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Farm Animal is the largest disclosed segment at 33.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.0% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 52.6%, up 3.2% YoY.
ELAN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $19 — implies -15.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
15.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ELAN
-55.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
321% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ELAN
-55.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
351% discount
vs ELAN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-55.7x
vs
5Y Average
17.8x
413% discount
Forward PE
25.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+33%
Healthcare
19.0x
+33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-55.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-321%
Healthcare
22.1x
-351%
5Y Avg
17.8x
-413%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+16%
Healthcare
14.1x
+25%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+29%
Price/FCF
46.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+116%
Healthcare
18.7x
+147%
5Y Avg
37.6x
+22%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-12%
Healthcare
2.8x
-3%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+43%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ELAN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ELAN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.4x | 19.1x+33% | 19.0x+33% | — |
| Trailing PE | -55.7x | 25.2x-321% | 22.1x-351% | 17.8x-413% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.7x | 15.3x+16% | 14.1x+25% | 13.8x+29% |
| Price/FCF | 46.0x | 21.3x+116% | 18.7x+147% | 37.6x+22% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x-12% | 2.8x | 1.9x+43% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
ELAN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolELAN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for ELAN are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
49.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-4.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$315M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$545M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
11.0× FCF
~11.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-3.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
499M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageELAN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Lackluster Revenue Growth
Elanco's recent annualized revenue growth has been below its five-year trend, indicating a potential slowdown in demand. This could necessitate price reductions or product investments that may negatively impact near-term profitability.
High Risk
Inefficient Growth Initiatives
The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) has been negative over the past five years, suggesting that past growth initiatives have not been capital-efficient and have resulted in financial losses.
High Risk
Overvaluation Concerns
Analyses indicate that Elanco's stock is significantly overvalued based on its GF Value™ estimate, which raises the potential for a price correction. The lack of recent insider activity may also reflect a lack of confidence from insiders regarding the stock's current valuation.
Medium
Substantial Indebtedness
Elanco carries substantial debt, which can restrict its operational flexibility and ability to secure additional funding. The company's capacity to meet its debt obligations is contingent on future operating performance and various uncontrollable economic factors.
Medium
Profitability and Cost Pressures
Despite revenue increases, Elanco has experienced a decline in EBITDA margin, indicating potential inefficiencies or rising costs that could adversely affect profitability.
Medium
Integration Risks
The integration of recent acquisitions, such as Kindred Biosciences and Bayer Animal Health, poses risks including ERP system integration challenges and potential sales order processing disruptions, which could impact revenue allocation and overall performance.
Lower
Regulatory Risks
Elanco's product portfolio is susceptible to changing regulatory restrictions on the use of antibiotics, which could affect product availability and market competitiveness.
Lower
Historical Accounting Irregularities
Elanco previously faced issues with the SEC due to accounting irregularities, leading to a significant drop in stock value. While this is a historical concern, it highlights the importance of maintaining robust financial reporting and controls.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ELAN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Product Innovation and Market Share
Elanco's 'Big 6' innovation portfolio is expected to generate significant revenue in 2026, driving margin expansion and renewal of its product offerings. Products like Credelio Quattro and Zenrelia have shown rapid adoption, with Simparica Trio holding over 50% market share in the companion animal sector and Credelio Quattro projected to reach 16.8% market share by 2026.
Financial Health and Deleveraging
The company plans to reduce its net leverage to below 3x by 2027, supported by improving cash flow. This deleveraging is expected to reduce the risk premium associated with the stock, potentially widening its valuation multiple compared to peers.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus among analysts is largely positive, with a majority recommending a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating. Multiple brokerages have raised their price targets, reflecting confidence in Elanco's ability to translate revenue growth into sustainable earnings.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ELAN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.16
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$9.42
+177.7% from the low
52-Week High
$27.72
-5.6% from the high
1 Month
+14.64%
3 Month
+3.81%
YTD
+16.2%
1 Year
+175.1%
3Y CAGR
+40.9%
5Y CAGR
-3.4%
10Y CAGR
-3.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ELAN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.4x
vs 17.6x median
+44% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.6%
vs +4.8% median
+17% above peer median
Net Margin
-4.9%
vs 1.3% median
-491% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELA ELAN Elanco Animal Health Incorporated | $13.1B | 25.4x | +5.6% | -4.9% | Buy | +6.6% |
ZTS ZTS Zoetis Inc. | $46.9B | 15.8x | +4.4% | 28.2% | Hold | +28.6% |
PCR PCRX Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | $932M | 8.6x | +4.8% | 1.3% | Hold | +24.5% |
PAH PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation | $2.4B | 19.3x | +17.2% | 6.3% | Buy | -16.4% |
NEO NEOG Neogen Corporation | $2.0B | 25.7x | +6.0% | -68.5% | Hold | +19.8% |
PET PETS PetMed Express, Inc. | $49M | — | -24.8% | -28.2% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsELAN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $28, implying +6.6% from the current price of $26.
02What is the ELAN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ELAN is $28 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+14.7% from today), and the low-end target is $22 (-15.9%).
03Is Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) stock overvalued in 2026?
ELAN trades at 25.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ELAN in 2026 are: (1) Lackluster Revenue Growth — Elanco's recent annualized revenue growth has been below its five-year trend, indicating a potential slowdown in demand. (2) Inefficient Growth Initiatives — The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) has been negative over the past five years, suggesting that past growth initiatives have not been capital-efficient and have resulted in financial losses. (3) Overvaluation Concerns — Analyses indicate that Elanco's stock is significantly overvalued based on its GF Value™ estimate, which raises the potential for a price correction. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ELAN will report consensus revenue of $5.0B (+5.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.08 (+118.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.2B in revenue.
06When does Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) report its next earnings?
Elanco Animal Health Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.34 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, ELAN has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Elanco Animal Health Incorporated generate?
Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) generated $315M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.4%. ELAN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).