Upside case
Bull case
$841+46.6%
FN would need investors to value it at roughly 61x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 42x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Fabrinet (FN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 24 covering FN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$653
+13.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$402 – $841
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
41.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.6B
FN price targets
Three scenarios for where FN stock could go
Current
~$574
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $574
Bear
$402
Base
$638
Bull
$841
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$638+11.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing FN — at roughly 46x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$402-29.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push FN down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fabrinet
FN · NYSETechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsJune year-end
Fabrinet is a contract manufacturer specializing in precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic components for the communications and industrial laser markets. It generates revenue primarily through manufacturing services for optical communications equipment—including transceivers, amplifiers, and switching products—and industrial lasers, serving major technology and telecom customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized expertise in complex optical packaging and its vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities across Asia-Pacific facilities.
Market Cap
$20.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.2B
Net Income TTM
$418M
Net Margin
9.9%
FN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.65/$2.64
Revenue
$910M/$883M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.92/$2.82
Revenue
$978M/$934M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.36/$3.26
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.72/$3.56
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.65/$2.64 | +0.4% | $910M/$883M | +3.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.92/$2.82 | +3.5% | $978M/$934M | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.36/$3.26 | +3.1% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.72/$3.56 | +4.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.6B
+8.9% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+10.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.70
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$14.19
+11.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$46M
FCF Margin: 1.1%
Next Earnings
August 17, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.83
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
FN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Optical Communications
100.0%
+14.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia Pacific
24.8%
+0.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Optical Communications is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.4% YoY.
Asia Pacific is the largest reported region at 24.8%, up 0.6% YoY.
FN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $512 — implies -10.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FN
62.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+156% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
FN
62.6x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+116% premium
vs FN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
62.6x
vs
5Y Average
24.3x
+158% premium
Forward PE
41.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+121%
Technology
22.3x
+87%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
62.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+156%
Technology
29.0x
+116%
5Y Avg
24.3x
+158%
PEG Ratio
2.51x
S&P 500
1.66x
+51%
Technology
1.51x
+66%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
53.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+252%
Technology
16.6x
+223%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+171%
Price/FCF
99.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+381%
Technology
19.2x
+418%
5Y Avg
49.8x
+100%
Price/Sales
6.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+94%
Technology
2.4x
+147%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+165%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FN | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg FN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 41.6x | 18.8x+121% | 22.3x+87% | — |
| Trailing PE | 62.6x | 24.4x+156% | 29.0x+116% | 24.3x+158% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.51x | 1.66x+51% | 1.51x+66% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.6x | 15.2x+252% | 16.6x+223% | 19.8x+171% |
| Price/FCF | 99.5x | 20.7x+381% | 19.2x+418% | 49.8x+100% |
| Price/Sales | 6.0x | 3.1x+94% | 2.4x+147% | 2.3x+165% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
FN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFN Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FN 16.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+29.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$46M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$306M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$297M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$126M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
36M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Data Center Spending Pause
A bear case scenario involves a pause in data center spending, which could reduce Fabrinet's 3-year CAGR to +8%.
Medium
Growth Dependency
Fabrinet's long-term growth is heavily tied to the expansion of the global data economy, making it vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts.
Lower
Consensus Target Risk
Despite a $653 consensus target, the implied upside is only +2.7%, indicating limited near-term growth potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AI and optical demand growth
Fabrinet's Q3 2026 results show strong revenue and net income, driven by AI and optical demand, with potential for further growth from higher speed transceivers and HPC manufacturing.
Automation and AI demand
Fabrinet is benefiting from rising automation and AI demand, particularly as a manufacturing partner for advanced optical transceivers, high-performance computing clusters, and industrial lasers.
Debt-free balance sheet
Fabrinet's strong financial position is underpinned by a debt-free balance sheet, providing stability and flexibility for future growth initiatives.
Preferred contract manufacturer
Fabrinet is positioned as a preferred contract manufacturer for leading hyperscalers and networking companies, enhancing its market share and revenue potential.
Strong revenue growth
Fabrinet reported a 36% YoY revenue growth, its fastest since IPO, indicating robust demand and operational execution despite market volatility.
Earnings growth
Fabrinet's fiscal second-quarter 2026 results showed higher sales and net income compared to the previous year, with diluted earnings per share also rising.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$573.76
52W Range Position
64%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$258.10
+122.3% from the low
52-Week High
$747.59
-23.3% from the high
1 Month
-18.06%
3 Month
+14.65%
YTD
+19.7%
1 Year
+116.0%
3Y CAGR
+64.4%
5Y CAGR
+44.5%
10Y CAGR
+31.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
41.6x
vs 36.6x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.9%
vs +5.7% median
+56% above peer median
Net Margin
9.9%
vs 3.2% median
+211% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FN FN Fabrinet | $20.6B | 41.6x | +8.9% | 9.9% | Buy | +13.8% |
FLE FLEX Flex Ltd. | $54.3B | 45.5x | +5.8% | 3.2% | Buy | +1.6% |
JBL JBL Jabil Inc. | $39.2B | 29.5x | +5.4% | 2.6% | Buy | +22.1% |
CLS CLS Celestica Inc. | $42.8B | 37.1x | +17.2% | 6.9% | Buy | +23.2% |
BHE BHE Benchmark Electronics, Inc. | $3.3B | 33.4x | +5.5% | 1.3% | Hold | -6.7% |
PLX PLXS Plexus Corp. | $8.0B | 36.6x | +5.7% | 4.4% | Buy | -11.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FN Dividend and Capital Return
FN returns 0.6% annually — null% through dividends and 0.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$126M
Estimated Shares Retired
219.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
36M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsFN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fabrinet (FN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fabrinet (FN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $653, implying +13.8% from the current price of $574. The bear case scenario is $402 and the bull case is $841.
02What is the FN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FN is $653 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $800 (+39.4% from today), and the low-end target is $540 (-5.9%). The base case model target is $638.
03Is Fabrinet (FN) stock overvalued in 2026?
FN trades at 41.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fabrinet (FN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FN in 2026 are: (1) Data Center Spending Pause — A bear case scenario involves a pause in data center spending, which could reduce Fabrinet's 3-year CAGR to +8%. (2) Growth Dependency — Fabrinet's long-term growth is heavily tied to the expansion of the global data economy, making it vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts. (3) Consensus Target Risk — Despite a $653 consensus target, the implied upside is only +2. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fabrinet's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FN will report consensus revenue of $4.6B (+8.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.70 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does Fabrinet (FN) report its next earnings?
Fabrinet is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-17. Consensus expects EPS of $3.83 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, FN has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Fabrinet generate?
Fabrinet (FN) generated $46M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.1%. FN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($126M TTM).