Upside case
Bull case
$1303+97.3%
FN would need investors to value it at roughly 96x earnings — about 47x more generous than today's 48x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Fabrinet (FN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 24 covering FN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$615
-6.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$629 – $1303
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
48.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.7B
FN price targets
Three scenarios for where FN stock could go
Current
~$660
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $660
Bear
$629
Base
$1198
Bull
$1303
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1198+81.5%
At 88x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$629-4.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push FN down roughly 5% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fabrinet
FN · NYSETechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsJune year-end
Fabrinet is a contract manufacturer specializing in precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic components for the communications and industrial laser markets. It generates revenue primarily through manufacturing services for optical communications equipment—including transceivers, amplifiers, and switching products—and industrial lasers, serving major technology and telecom customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized expertise in complex optical packaging and its vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities across Asia-Pacific facilities.
Market Cap
$23.7B
Revenue TTM
$4.2B
Net Income TTM
$418M
Net Margin
9.9%
FN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.65/$2.64
Revenue
$910M/$883M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.92/$2.82
Revenue
$978M/$934M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.36/$3.26
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.72/$3.58
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.65/$2.64 | +0.4% | $910M/$883M | +3.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.92/$2.82 | +3.5% | $978M/$934M | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.36/$3.26 | +3.1% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.72/$3.58 | +3.9% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.9B
+15.5% YoY
FY2
$5.7B
+17.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.94
+19.9% YoY
FY2
$16.64
+19.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$46M
FCF Margin: 1.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Optical Communications
100.0%
+14.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia Pacific
24.8%
+0.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Optical Communications is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.4% YoY.
Asia Pacific is the largest reported region at 24.8%, up 0.6% YoY.
FN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $386 — implies -45.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
45.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FN
72.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+187% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
FN
72.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+169% premium
vs FN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
72.0x
vs
5Y Average
24.3x
+197% premium
Forward PE
48.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+154%
Technology
22.1x
+119%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
72.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+187%
Technology
26.7x
+169%
5Y Avg
24.3x
+197%
PEG Ratio
2.89x
S&P 500
1.72x
+68%
Technology
1.52x
+89%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
61.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+306%
Technology
17.5x
+254%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+212%
Price/FCF
114.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+443%
Technology
19.5x
+487%
5Y Avg
49.8x
+130%
Price/Sales
6.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+121%
Technology
2.4x
+183%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+205%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FN | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg FN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 48.5x | 19.1x+154% | 22.1x+119% | — |
| Trailing PE | 72.0x | 25.1x+187% | 26.7x+169% | 24.3x+197% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.89x | 1.72x+68% | 1.52x+89% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 61.8x | 15.2x+306% | 17.5x+254% | 19.8x+212% |
| Price/FCF | 114.5x | 21.1x+443% | 19.5x+487% | 49.8x+130% |
| Price/Sales | 6.9x | 3.1x+121% | 2.4x+183% | 2.3x+205% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
FN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFN Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FN 16.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+29.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$46M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$306M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$297M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$126M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
36M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Fabrinet's current price-to-earnings ratios are significantly higher than historical averages and sector medians, indicating potential overvaluation. The stock's recent surge to a 52-week high increases its vulnerability to profit-taking and broader market downturns.
High Risk
Customer Concentration Risk
Fabrinet's revenue is heavily reliant on a few large hyperscaler customers, which poses a risk if any of these customers reduce their spending or shift to competitors. This concentration could lead to significant revenue fluctuations.
High Risk
Cyclical Business Model
Fabrinet operates in a cyclical industry that is heavily dependent on data center capital expenditures and carrier spending trends. Any downturn in these areas could adversely affect the company's financial performance.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Potential disruptions in the supply chain could impact Fabrinet's ability to deliver products on time, affecting customer satisfaction and revenue. This risk is heightened by global supply chain challenges that have persisted in recent years.
Medium
Technological Evolution
The rapid evolution of technology in optical networking may render Fabrinet's products obsolete if the company fails to innovate. Staying ahead of technological trends is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage.
Medium
Pricing Pressure
Fabrinet faces ongoing pricing pressure from large customers and competition within the industry. This could lead to reduced margins and impact overall profitability.
Lower
Execution and Litigation Risks
Fabrinet is exposed to execution risks related to its operational strategies and potential litigation risks that could arise from its business practices. While these risks are present, they are considered less impactful compared to other factors.
Lower
Market Volatility
The stock has experienced significant volatility over the past three months compared to the US market. This volatility may deter risk-averse investors and affect stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI and Data Center Boom
Fabrinet is a key supplier to major tech companies like Nvidia and Amazon, benefiting directly from the massive capital expenditure in AI infrastructure. The company is projected to post strong double-digit sales and earnings growth in 2026 and 2027 due to this trend.
Strong Financial Performance
Fabrinet has experienced significant stock appreciation, soaring over 276% in the past year and over 2000% in the last decade. The company recently reported record-breaking Q2 2026 revenue of $1.13 billion, up 35.9% year-over-year.
Strategic Partnerships
A significant development is the issuance of warrants to Amazon, signaling a strong long-term alignment and a vote of confidence from a major tech player.
Analyst Support
Despite some concerns about valuation, some analysts, including JP Morgan Chase, have set price targets around $700 or higher. The company also holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$660.32
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$193.54
+241.2% from the low
52-Week High
$733.00
-9.9% from the high
1 Month
+19.12%
3 Month
+49.16%
YTD
+37.7%
1 Year
+198.9%
3Y CAGR
+92.1%
5Y CAGR
+50.4%
10Y CAGR
+34.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
48.5x
vs 30.6x median
+58% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.5%
vs +1.5% median
+929% above peer median
Net Margin
9.9%
vs 3.2% median
+211% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FN FN Fabrinet | $23.7B | 48.5x | +15.5% | 9.9% | Buy | -6.9% |
FLE FLEX Flex Ltd. | $36.5B | 29.7x | +0.0% | 3.2% | Buy | -17.1% |
JBL JBL Jabil Inc. | $36.2B | 27.4x | +1.5% | 2.5% | Buy | -19.1% |
CLS CLS Celestica Inc. | $48.0B | 41.6x | +27.6% | 6.9% | Buy | +9.9% |
BHE BHE Benchmark Electronics, Inc. | $3.0B | 30.6x | +1.4% | 1.3% | Hold | +1.7% |
PLX PLXS Plexus Corp. | $7.1B | 34.4x | +2.6% | 4.4% | Buy | -5.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FN Dividend and Capital Return
FN returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$126M
Estimated Shares Retired
190.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
36M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsFN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fabrinet (FN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fabrinet (FN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $615, implying -6.9% from the current price of $660. The bear case scenario is $629 and the bull case is $1303.
02What is the FN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FN is $615 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $800 (+21.2% from today), and the low-end target is $540 (-18.2%). The base case model target is $1198.
03Is Fabrinet (FN) stock overvalued in 2026?
FN trades at 48.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fabrinet (FN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FN in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Concerns — Fabrinet's current price-to-earnings ratios are significantly higher than historical averages and sector medians, indicating potential overvaluation. (2) Customer Concentration Risk — Fabrinet's revenue is heavily reliant on a few large hyperscaler customers, which poses a risk if any of these customers reduce their spending or shift to competitors. (3) Cyclical Business Model — Fabrinet operates in a cyclical industry that is heavily dependent on data center capital expenditures and carrier spending trends. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fabrinet's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FN will report consensus revenue of $4.9B (+15.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.94 (+19.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.7B in revenue.
06When does Fabrinet (FN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Fabrinet generate?
Fabrinet (FN) generated $46M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.1%. FN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($126M TTM).