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Fabrinet (FN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Fabrinet (FN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$497.58
→
Intrinsic$209.25
-58%
$145.11$209.25$330.92
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $145 → Bull $331. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $331).
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$256$275$297$319
10%$181$195$209$225
12%$140$150$161$172
14%$114$122$130$139

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($331) with 30% growth, 9% discount rate

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($145) implies 71% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Trading 58% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
  • Price exceeds bull case ($331) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$258.10M
Year 2$322.51M
Year 3$403.00M
Year 4$503.58M
Year 5$629.25M
Terminal$9.26B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$206.55MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is FN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

FN trades at $497.58 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $175.03, implying -63% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($259.51) suggests limited upside.

What is FN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $207M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-301M net debt and dividing by 0.04B shares: Bear $117.65 | Base $175.03 | Bull $259.51. Current price $497.58 implies -63% to base case.

How is FN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($6.05B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.