Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing FROG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering FROG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$79
-4.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
86.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.0B
FROG price targets
Three scenarios for where FROG stock could go
Current
~$83
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
JFrog Ltd.
FROG · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
JFrog is a DevOps platform company that provides a universal software supply chain solution for managing binaries and artifacts throughout the development lifecycle. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its SaaS platform and self-hosted enterprise offerings — with its core Artifactory product serving as the foundation for its broader DevOps suite. The company's key advantage is its universal artifact repository technology that supports all major package formats, creating a central hub that becomes deeply embedded in customers' development workflows.
Market Cap
$10.0B
Revenue TTM
$563M
Net Income TTM
-$62M
Net Margin
-10.9%
FROG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+39.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.18/$0.16
Revenue
$127M/$128M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.16
Revenue
$137M/$128M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.19
Revenue
$145M/$138M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.27/$0.21
Revenue
$154M/$147M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.18/$0.16 | +12.5% | $127M/$128M | -0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.22/$0.16 | +34.4% | $137M/$128M | +6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.19 | +15.8% | $145M/$138M | +5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.27/$0.21 | +26.6% | $154M/$147M | +4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$650M
+15.4% YoY
FY2
$741M
+14.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.05
+91.1% YoY
FY2
$-0.02
+47.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$151M
FCF Margin: 26.9%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.24
Expected Revenue
$156M
FROG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FROG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $820M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Selfmanaged Subscription
35.2%
+10.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.5%
+22.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Selfmanaged Subscription is the largest disclosed segment at 35.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.5%, up 22.2% YoY.
FROG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $26 — implies -69.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
69.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FROG
-133.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
646% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
FROG
-133.4x
vs
Technology
29.0x
560% discount
vs FROG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-133.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
86.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+361%
Technology
22.3x
+290%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-133.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-646%
Technology
29.0x
-560%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
70.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+240%
Technology
19.2x
+267%
5Y Avg
75.1x
-6%
Price/Sales
18.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+509%
Technology
2.4x
+673%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+79%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FROG | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg FROG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 86.7x | 18.8x+361% | 22.3x+290% | — |
| Trailing PE | -133.4x | 24.4x-646% | 29.0x-560% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | 70.4x | 20.7x+240% | 19.2x+267% | 75.1x |
| Price/Sales | 18.8x | 3.1x+509% | 2.4x+673% | 10.5x+79% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
FROG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFROG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
FROG generates $151M in free cash flow at a 26.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$563M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
77.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-14.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-10.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.51
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$151M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-8.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$77M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$57M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-7.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-8.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
121M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageFROG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Volatility
JFrog's stock has shown significant volatility with 17 moves greater than 5% over the past year, indicating market sensitivity to earnings and other announcements.
Medium
Price Increase Risk
A 6% annual price increase for its Enterprise X tier may lead to customer pushback or churn, impacting revenue growth.
Medium
Competitive Positioning
Analysts consider competitive positioning when rating JFrog, suggesting risks from rivals in the DevOps and software supply chain space.
Lower
Sector Outlook
The Technology sector's broader trends could influence JFrog's performance, though this is a less direct risk factor.
High Risk
Revenue Growth Pressure
Despite beating EPS estimates, sustaining high revenue growth may be challenging due to market saturation or execution risks.
Medium
Market Sensitivity
The stock's reaction to earnings and other announcements indicates high sensitivity to short-term performance metrics.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FROG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AI product expansion
JFrog is expanding its AI-focused software supply chain offerings and integrations, driving optimism among analysts and investors.
Strong Q1 results
Recent strong Q1 results have reinforced bullish sentiment, with analysts reiterating optimistic views on the company.
Russell 3000 inclusion
Upcoming inclusion in the Russell 3000 Index is reshaping investor perceptions and increasing visibility for JFrog.
Cloud strengthening
The company's cloud offerings are gaining traction, contributing to its recent stock price appreciation.
Mission-critical platform
JFrog is evolving into a mission-critical infrastructure platform, driving deeper enterprise adoption and expanding into governance and compliance.
DevOps solutions
JFrog's integrated products address major DevOps issues, positioning it as a key player in the software supply chain.
Hyper-growth potential
The company is viewed as a profitable, hyper-growth entity with a large user base, fueling long-term bullish expectations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FROG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$82.72
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$34.05
+142.9% from the low
52-Week High
$89.16
-7.2% from the high
1 Month
+21.81%
3 Month
+88.56%
YTD
+38.9%
1 Year
+99.2%
3Y CAGR
+45.0%
5Y CAGR
+12.1%
10Y CAGR
+2.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FROG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
86.7x
vs 23.3x median
+272% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.4%
vs +14.1% median
+9% above peer median
Net Margin
-10.9%
vs 3.0% median
-460% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FRO FROG JFrog Ltd. | $10.0B | 86.7x | +15.4% | -10.9% | Buy | -4.0% |
HUB HUBS HubSpot, Inc. | $9.0B | 13.4x | +14.9% | 3.0% | Buy | +62.0% |
GTL GTLB GitLab Inc. | $4.5B | 32.7x | +14.1% | -2.5% | Hold | +31.0% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $79.4B | 91.9x | +18.2% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.7% |
EST ESTC Elastic N.V. | $6.1B | 23.3x | +9.2% | 21.1% | Buy | +6.6% |
TEA TEAM Atlassian Corporation | $21.7B | 15.1x | +10.6% | -3.5% | Buy | +67.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsFROG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is JFrog Ltd. (FROG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
JFrog Ltd. (FROG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $79, implying -4.0% from the current price of $83.
02What is the FROG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FROG is $79 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+20.9% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-27.5%).
03Is JFrog Ltd. (FROG) stock overvalued in 2026?
FROG trades at 86.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for JFrog Ltd. (FROG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FROG in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Volatility — JFrog's stock has shown significant volatility with 17 moves greater than 5% over the past year, indicating market sensitivity to earnings and other announcements. (2) Revenue Growth Pressure — Despite beating EPS estimates, sustaining high revenue growth may be challenging due to market saturation or execution risks. (3) Price Increase Risk — A 6% annual price increase for its Enterprise X tier may lead to customer pushback or churn, impacting revenue growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is JFrog Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FROG will report consensus revenue of $650M (+15.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.05 (+91.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $741M in revenue.
06When does JFrog Ltd. (FROG) report its next earnings?
JFrog Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.24 and revenue of $156M. Over recent quarters, FROG has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does JFrog Ltd. generate?
JFrog Ltd. (FROG) generated $151M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.9%. FROG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).