Upside case
Bull case
$49-40.2%
The bull case prices TEAM at 9x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
30 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering TEAM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$139
+67.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$24 – $49
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.7B
TEAM price targets
Three scenarios for where TEAM stock could go
Current
~$83
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $83
Bear
$24
Base
$38
Bull
$49
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$38-54.6%
At 7x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$24-71.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push TEAM down roughly 71% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Atlassian Corporation
TEAM · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationJune year-end
Atlassian is a software company that provides collaboration and productivity tools for software development and project management teams. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud-based products — Jira, Confluence, Trello, and Bitbucket — with cloud subscriptions now representing over 90% of total revenue. The company's moat lies in its deeply embedded ecosystem within development workflows, creating high switching costs as teams coordinate work across its interconnected tools.
Market Cap
$21.7B
Revenue TTM
$6.2B
Net Income TTM
-$217M
Net Margin
-3.5%
TEAM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+22.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.98/$0.83
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.04/$0.84
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.22/$1.15
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.75/$1.33
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.98/$0.83 | +17.5% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.04/$0.84 | +24.0% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.22/$1.15 | +6.1% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.75/$1.33 | +31.6% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +5.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.8B
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$7.5B
+9.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.93
+332.2% YoY
FY2
$2.09
+8.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 19.5%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.50
Expected Revenue
$1.7B
TEAM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TEAM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
License and Service
94.5%
+25.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
25.5%
+18.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
License and Service is the largest disclosed segment at 94.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 25.6% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 25.5%, up 18.4% YoY.
TEAM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $72 — implies -12.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TEAM
-84.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
445% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TEAM
-84.4x
vs
Technology
29.0x
391% discount
vs TEAM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-84.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
15.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-20%
Technology
22.3x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-84.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-445%
Technology
29.0x
-391%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
15.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-26%
Technology
19.2x
-20%
5Y Avg
52.8x
-71%
Price/Sales
4.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+35%
Technology
2.4x
+71%
5Y Avg
16.1x
-74%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TEAM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TEAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.1x | 18.8x-20% | 22.3x-32% | — |
| Trailing PE | -84.4x | 24.4x-445% | 29.0x-391% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | 15.3x | 20.7x-26% | 19.2x-20% | 52.8x-71% |
| Price/Sales | 4.2x | 3.1x+35% | 2.4x+71% | 16.1x-74% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
TEAM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTEAM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TEAM generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 19.5% margin — returns 3.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
83.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-3.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-110.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-16.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-110.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$779M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
263M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageTEAM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risk
Bear case target price of $105 suggests significant downside risk from current levels, with AI models predicting a -9.9% decline.
Medium
Execution Risk
Bull case of $480 depends heavily on successful AI monetization and enterprise expansion, which may face challenges.
High Risk
Market Sentiment
Stock price predictions for 2026 indicate potential declines, reflecting bearish sentiment among some analysts.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Atlassian's collaboration tools face intense competition, which could impact growth and market share.
Lower
Operational Risks
Disclosure of 57 risk factors in earnings reports highlights operational and financial vulnerabilities.
Medium
Revenue Uncertainty
Revenue and earnings estimates vary widely, indicating uncertainty about future performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TEAM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Resilient free cash flow
Atlassian has a strong free cash flow engine, supported by disciplined expense management, which underpins its financial stability.
Long-term growth ambitions
The company targets a 20% CAGR through fiscal 2027, driven by its durable growth and strong customer expansion.
Strong product portfolio
Atlassian's collaboration tools like Jira, Confluence, and Trello are widely adopted, supporting secular cloud adoption trends.
Exceeding financial expectations
Recent quarterly results surpassed revenue and earnings expectations, with raised full-year revenue growth outlook to about 24%.
Wide economic moat
Atlassian's proprietary software and market position in collaboration tools create a competitive advantage, as noted in its wide moat.
Secular cloud adoption
The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing cloud adoption trends, driven by its product portfolio and customer demand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TEAM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$82.72
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.01
+47.7% from the low
52-Week High
$222.59
-62.8% from the high
1 Month
-7.51%
3 Month
+12.59%
YTD
-46.5%
1 Year
-57.8%
3Y CAGR
-22.2%
5Y CAGR
-20.9%
10Y CAGR
+12.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TEAM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.1x
vs 16.1x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.6%
vs +12.6% median
-16% below peer median
Net Margin
-3.5%
vs 12.6% median
-128% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEA TEAM Atlassian Corporation | $21.7B | 15.1x | +10.6% | -3.5% | Buy | +67.6% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $98.5B | 22.9x | +16.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +58.1% |
MND MNDY monday.com Ltd. | $3.7B | 16.1x | +15.5% | 9.2% | Buy | +63.8% |
WDA WDAY Workday, Inc. | $30.6B | 10.9x | +12.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +56.1% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $2.82T | 22.6x | +8.8% | 39.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
CRM CRM Salesforce, Inc. | $124.3B | 12.9x | +9.2% | 18.7% | Buy | +75.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TEAM Dividend and Capital Return
TEAM returns 3.6% annually — null% through dividends and 3.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$779M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
263M
At 3.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTEAM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $139, implying +67.6% from the current price of $83. The bear case scenario is $24 and the bull case is $49.
02What is the TEAM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TEAM is $139 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $295 (+256.6% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (+20.9%). The base case model target is $38.
03Is Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) stock overvalued in 2026?
TEAM trades at 15.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TEAM in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risk — Bear case target price of $105 suggests significant downside risk from current levels, with AI models predicting a -9. (2) Market Sentiment — Stock price predictions for 2026 indicate potential declines, reflecting bearish sentiment among some analysts. (3) Execution Risk — Bull case of $480 depends heavily on successful AI monetization and enterprise expansion, which may face challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Atlassian Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TEAM will report consensus revenue of $6.8B (+10.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.93 (+332.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.5B in revenue.
06When does Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) report its next earnings?
Atlassian Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.50 and revenue of $1.7B. Over recent quarters, TEAM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Atlassian Corporation generate?
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.5%. TEAM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($779M TTM).