Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing TEAM more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
30 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering TEAM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$138
+55.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.3B
TEAM price targets
Three scenarios for where TEAM stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
81 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Atlassian Corporation
TEAM · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationJune year-end
Atlassian is a software company that provides collaboration and productivity tools for software development and project management teams. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud-based products — Jira, Confluence, Trello, and Bitbucket — with cloud subscriptions now representing over 90% of total revenue. The company's moat lies in its deeply embedded ecosystem within development workflows, creating high switching costs as teams coordinate work across its interconnected tools.
Market Cap
$23.3B
Revenue TTM
$6.2B
Net Income TTM
-$217M
Net Margin
-3.5%
TEAM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+22.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.98/$0.83
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.04/$0.84
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.22/$1.15
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.75/$1.33
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.98/$0.83 | +17.5% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.04/$0.84 | +24.0% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.22/$1.15 | +6.1% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.75/$1.33 | +31.6% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +5.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.9B
+11.2% YoY
FY2
$8.4B
+22.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.41
+390.6% YoY
FY2
$2.29
-5.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 19.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TEAM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TEAM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
License and Service
94.5%
+25.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
25.5%
+18.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
License and Service is the largest disclosed segment at 94.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 25.6% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 25.5%, up 18.4% YoY.
TEAM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $145 — implies +63.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
63.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TEAM
-90.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
459% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TEAM
-90.6x
vs
Technology
27.5x
430% discount
vs TEAM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-90.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
18.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-2%
Technology
21.7x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-90.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-459%
Technology
27.5x
-430%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Technology
17.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
16.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-23%
Technology
19.8x
-17%
5Y Avg
52.8x
-69%
Price/Sales
4.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+43%
Technology
2.4x
+85%
5Y Avg
16.1x
-72%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TEAM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TEAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.7x | 19.1x | 21.7x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | -90.6x | 25.2x-459% | 27.5x-430% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 17.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | 16.5x | 21.3x-23% | 19.8x-17% | 52.8x-69% |
| Price/Sales | 4.5x | 3.1x+43% | 2.4x+85% | 16.1x-72% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
TEAM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTEAM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TEAM generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 19.5% margin — returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
83.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-3.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-110.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-16.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-110.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$779M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
263M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageTEAM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Americas exposure
Americas represents 25.5% of disclosed revenue and changed 18.4% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
License and Service dependence
License and Service contributes 94.5% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 25.6%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
TEAM trades at -90.6x trailing earnings versus 25.2x for the S&P 500 and 27.5x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $6.9B in revenue (11.2% growth) and $2.41 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $1.2B in trailing free cash flow, a 3.3% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TEAM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Atlassian Corporation already operates from a position of scale, with 83.9% gross margin, -3.7% operating margin, and $1.2B in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
License and Service still matters
License and Service accounts for 94.5% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 25.6%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $138, or 55.2% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $6.9B in forward revenue and $2.41 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 3.3% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TEAM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$88.80
52W Range Position
19%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.01
+58.5% from the low
52-Week High
$232.36
-61.8% from the high
1 Month
+30.42%
3 Month
-6.25%
YTD
-42.6%
1 Year
-57.3%
3Y CAGR
-11.9%
5Y CAGR
-16.5%
10Y CAGR
+15.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TEAM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.7x
vs 18.4x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.2%
vs +12.7% median
-11% below peer median
Net Margin
-3.5%
vs 12.6% median
-128% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEA TEAM Atlassian Corporation | $23.3B | 18.7x | +11.2% | -3.5% | Buy | +55.2% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $92.3B | 21.4x | +18.0% | 12.6% | Buy | +70.2% |
MND MNDY monday.com Ltd. | $3.8B | 18.4x | +27.4% | 9.6% | Buy | +79.8% |
WDA WDAY Workday, Inc. | $32.3B | 11.7x | +12.7% | 7.3% | Buy | +61.4% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.07T | 24.9x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +33.3% |
CRM CRM Salesforce, Inc. | $174.3B | 15.4x | +3.7% | 18.0% | Buy | +58.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TEAM Dividend and Capital Return
TEAM returns 3.3% annually — null% through dividends and 3.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$779M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
263M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTEAM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $138, implying +55.2% from the current price of $89.
02What is the TEAM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TEAM is $138 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $295 (+232.2% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (+12.6%).
03Is Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) stock overvalued in 2026?
TEAM trades at 18.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TEAM in 2026 are: (1) Americas exposure — Americas represents 25. (2) License and Service dependence — License and Service contributes 94. (3) Valuation de-rating — TEAM trades at -90. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Atlassian Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TEAM will report consensus revenue of $6.9B (+11.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.41 (+390.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.4B in revenue.
06When does Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TEAM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Atlassian Corporation generate?
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.5%. TEAM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($779M TTM).