Upside case
Bull case
$451+74.8%
FSLR would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
73
analysts
44 bullish · 7 bearish · 73 covering FSLR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
44
Hold
22
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$255
-1.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$215 – $451
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
73
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $27.7B
FSLR price targets
Three scenarios for where FSLR stock could go
Current
~$258
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $258
Bear
$215
Base
$342
Bull
$451
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$342+32.7%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$215-16.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push FSLR down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
First Solar, Inc.
FSLR · NASDAQEnergySolarDecember year-end
First Solar is a leading manufacturer of thin-film solar modules that convert sunlight into electricity for utility-scale solar projects. It makes money primarily by selling its proprietary cadmium telluride solar panels — which account for the vast majority of revenue — along with project development services and operations & maintenance contracts. The company's key advantage is its proprietary thin-film technology that offers better performance in hot climates and lower degradation rates than conventional silicon panels.
Market Cap
$27.7B
Revenue TTM
$5.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
30.7%
FSLR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.18/$2.66
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.24/$4.24
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.84/$5.14
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.22/$3.03
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.18/$2.66 | +19.5% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.24/$4.24 | +0.0% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.84/$5.14 | -5.8% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.22/$3.03 | +6.3% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.5B
+1.7% YoY
FY2
$5.8B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$16.45
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$19.00
+15.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 30.8%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.00
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
FSLR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FSLR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Solar Module
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.1%
+27.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Solar Module is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.1%, up 27.9% YoY.
FSLR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $579 — implies +124.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
124.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FSLR
18.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
26% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
FSLR
18.1x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+17% premium
vs FSLR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.1x
vs
5Y Average
18.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
14.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-23%
Energy
12.5x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-26%
Energy
15.5x
+17%
5Y Avg
18.8x
-4%
PEG Ratio
0.59x
S&P 500
1.66x
-64%
Energy
0.52x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-25%
Energy
7.8x
+46%
5Y Avg
21.4x
-46%
Price/FCF
23.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+13%
Energy
13.8x
+69%
5Y Avg
23.7x
-1%
Price/Sales
5.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+72%
Energy
1.4x
+275%
5Y Avg
4.9x
+7%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Energy
3.47%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FSLR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg FSLR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.6x | 18.8x-23% | 12.5x+17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.1x | 24.4x-26% | 15.5x+17% | 18.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.59x | 1.66x-64% | 0.52x+14% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.5x | 15.2x-25% | 7.8x+46% | 21.4x-46% |
| Price/FCF | 23.3x | 20.7x+13% | 13.8x+69% | 23.7x |
| Price/Sales | 5.3x | 3.1x+72% | 1.4x+275% | 4.9x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.47% | — |
FSLR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFSLR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
FSLR generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 30.8% margin — 17.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+27.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
33.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$16M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
107M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFSLR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Weak Gross Margin Guidance
Excluding the 45X tax credit, full-year gross margin for 2026 is guided to be only about seven percent, indicating potential profitability challenges.
High Risk
Conservative Financial Outlook
First Solar's surprisingly conservative 2026 revenue forecast of $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion triggered an 18% stock sell-off, reflecting investor concerns about growth.
Medium
Market Sentiment Shift
The stock price dipped following the 2026 forecast release, signaling potential market skepticism about the company's long-term performance.
Medium
Sector Volatility
The domestic renewable energy sector experienced turbulence due to First Solar's outlook, highlighting broader industry risks.
Lower
Regulatory Dependence
The company's financials are significantly impacted by tax credits like 45X, making it vulnerable to policy changes.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FSLR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Attractive valuation metrics
First Solar's trailing P/E of 19.84 and forward P/E of 10.18 suggest the stock may be undervalued relative to future earnings potential.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses on First Solar have been published by research platforms like Bullseye Research and r/Valueinvesting, indicating positive sentiment among analysts.
Strong share price performance
First Solar's share price was trading at $241.88 as of February 20th, reflecting strong market performance and investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FSLR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$257.70
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$139.26
+85.0% from the low
52-Week High
$320.95
-19.7% from the high
1 Month
+10.30%
3 Month
+30.28%
YTD
-6.1%
1 Year
+79.4%
3Y CAGR
+11.5%
5Y CAGR
+27.3%
10Y CAGR
+18.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FSLR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.6x
vs 18.4x median
-21% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.7%
vs +1.0% median
+69% above peer median
Net Margin
30.7%
vs -3.4% median
+1016% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FSL FSLR First Solar, Inc. | $27.7B | 14.6x | +1.7% | 30.7% | Buy | -1.1% |
CSI CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. | $1.1B | — | +10.2% | -1.9% | Buy | +10.6% |
JKS JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. | $254M | — | +1.0% | -3.4% | Buy | +23.6% |
ARR ARRY Array Technologies, Inc. | $1.2B | 11.0x | +15.1% | -5.6% | Buy | +22.5% |
MAX MAXN Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd. | $6M | — | -78.7% | -320.5% | — | — |
ENP ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $6.9B | 25.9x | -2.1% | 9.6% | Hold | -8.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FSLR Dividend and Capital Return
FSLR does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$16M
Estimated Shares Retired
60.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
107M
FAQ
7 questionsFSLR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 73 analysts covering the stock, 44 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $255, implying -1.1% from the current price of $258. The bear case scenario is $215 and the bull case is $451.
02What is the FSLR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FSLR is $255 based on 73 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $315 (+22.2% from today), and the low-end target is $205 (-20.5%). The base case model target is $342.
03Is First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) stock overvalued in 2026?
FSLR trades at 14.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FSLR in 2026 are: (1) Weak Gross Margin Guidance — Excluding the 45X tax credit, full-year gross margin for 2026 is guided to be only about seven percent, indicating potential profitability challenges. (2) Conservative Financial Outlook — First Solar's surprisingly conservative 2026 revenue forecast of $4. (3) Market Sentiment Shift — The stock price dipped following the 2026 forecast release, signaling potential market skepticism about the company's long-term performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is First Solar, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FSLR will report consensus revenue of $5.5B (+1.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $16.45 (+6.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.8B in revenue.
06When does First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) report its next earnings?
First Solar, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $3.00 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, FSLR has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does First Solar, Inc. generate?
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.8%. FSLR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($16M TTM).