Upside case
Bull case
$473+116.9%
FSLR would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
73
analysts
42 bullish · 7 bearish · 73 covering FSLR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
42
Hold
24
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$264
+21.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $473
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
73
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.4B
FSLR price targets
Three scenarios for where FSLR stock could go
Current
~$218
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $218
Base
$374
Bull
$473
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$374+71.7%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
First Solar, Inc.
FSLR · NASDAQEnergySolarDecember year-end
First Solar is a leading manufacturer of thin-film solar modules that convert sunlight into electricity for utility-scale solar projects. It makes money primarily by selling its proprietary cadmium telluride solar panels — which account for the vast majority of revenue — along with project development services and operations & maintenance contracts. The company's key advantage is its proprietary thin-film technology that offers better performance in hot climates and lower degradation rates than conventional silicon panels.
Market Cap
$23.4B
Revenue TTM
$5.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
30.7%
FSLR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.18/$2.66
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.24/$4.24
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.84/$5.14
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.22/$2.87
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.18/$2.66 | +19.5% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.24/$4.24 | +0.0% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.84/$5.14 | -5.8% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.22/$2.87 | +12.2% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.7B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$7.1B
+24.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.46
+19.3% YoY
FY2
$24.40
+32.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 30.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FSLR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FSLR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Solar Module
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.1%
+27.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Solar Module is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.1%, up 27.9% YoY.
FSLR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $484 — implies +128.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
128.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FSLR
15.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
39% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
FSLR
15.3x
vs
Energy
16.9x
9% discount
vs FSLR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.3x
vs
5Y Average
18.8x
18% discount
Forward PE
12.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-36%
Energy
13.2x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-39%
Energy
16.9x
-9%
5Y Avg
18.8x
-18%
PEG Ratio
0.50x
S&P 500
1.75x
-71%
Energy
0.52x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-37%
Energy
8.1x
+17%
5Y Avg
21.4x
-55%
Price/FCF
19.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-8%
Energy
14.1x
+40%
5Y Avg
23.7x
-17%
Price/Sales
4.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+43%
Energy
1.6x
+187%
5Y Avg
4.9x
-9%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Energy
2.97%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FSLR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg FSLR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.2x | 19.1x-36% | 13.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.3x | 25.2x-39% | 16.9x | 18.8x-18% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.50x | 1.75x-71% | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5x | 15.3x-37% | 8.1x+17% | 21.4x-55% |
| Price/FCF | 19.7x | 21.3x | 14.1x+40% | 23.7x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 4.5x | 3.1x+43% | 1.6x+187% | 4.9x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.97% | — |
FSLR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFSLR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
FSLR generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 30.8% margin — 17.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+27.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
33.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$16M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
107M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFSLR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Government Incentives and Subsidies
First Solar's profitability is heavily reliant on government policies like tax incentives and renewable energy targets. Changes or reductions to programs such as the Section 45X tax credit, particularly following the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' signed in July 2025, could significantly impact demand and profitability.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Disruptions in the supply chain for critical inputs, such as tellurium, pose a significant risk to First Solar's operations. Given that China is a major producer of tellurium, any geopolitical tensions or trade restrictions could severely affect production capabilities.
High Risk
Volatile Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures
First Solar's aggressive investment in new manufacturing facilities can lead to volatile cash flows, with periods of negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures. This unpredictability in financial performance poses a substantial risk to investors.
Medium
Trade Policies and Tariffs
Tariffs on solar components and raw materials can increase costs and create market uncertainties. Although First Solar's US manufacturing base mitigates some tariff impacts, retaliatory tariffs or new trade policies could still affect competitiveness.
Medium
Manufacturing Issues and Warranties
First Solar has identified manufacturing issues with certain Series 7 modules that may lead to premature power loss, potentially triggering warranty claims. This could result in increased costs and impact the company's reputation.
Medium
Market Volatility and Economic Downturns
First Solar's stock has historically underperformed the S&P 500 during economic downturns, indicating a sensitivity to broader market sentiment. Economic instability can adversely affect stock performance and investor confidence.
Lower
Competition and Technological Disruptions
First Solar faces intense competition from global solar manufacturers, particularly those in China with lower cost structures. Additionally, potential technological disruptions in the solar industry could impact First Solar's market position.
Lower
Customer-Related Challenges
Delays in customer projects due to federal permitting or regulatory issues can affect revenue recognition and investor confidence. These challenges may hinder First Solar's ability to meet financial expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FSLR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
U.S. Manufacturing and Policy Support
First Solar is a leading U.S.-based solar technology firm with a significant manufacturing footprint in the United States. It benefits from U.S. industrial policies, including incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides tax credits for domestic manufacturing and content, creating a competitive advantage and protection from Chinese competition.
Differentiated Technology
The company utilizes cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology, which is more cost-effective per watt and performs better in certain climates compared to traditional crystalline silicon modules. This technological edge allows First Solar to carve out a unique niche in the market.
Strong Backlog and Demand
First Solar has a substantial contracted sales backlog, with nearly all production through 2029 already sold. This provides significant revenue visibility and stability, further bolstered by the push for energy independence and the growing need for power to support AI-driven infrastructure.
Financial Performance and Growth Prospects
The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth and expanding margins, partly due to tax credits. Projections indicate continued revenue and earnings growth in the coming years, suggesting that First Solar could be undervalued with significant upside potential.
Strategic Importance
First Solar is viewed as a 'national champion' in the energy sector, crucial for U.S. energy security and independence. Its role in the domestic energy transition is seen as a long-term strategic advantage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FSLR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$218.00
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$125.80
+73.3% from the low
52-Week High
$285.99
-23.8% from the high
1 Month
+11.47%
3 Month
-0.33%
YTD
-20.5%
1 Year
+72.0%
3Y CAGR
+7.1%
5Y CAGR
+24.2%
10Y CAGR
+15.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FSLR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.2x
vs 14.7x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs -4.5% median
+199% above peer median
Net Margin
30.7%
vs -3.4% median
+1016% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FSL FSLR First Solar, Inc. | $23.4B | 12.2x | +4.5% | 30.7% | Buy | +21.2% |
CSI CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. | $1.1B | — | -0.3% | -1.9% | Buy | +71.1% |
JKS JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. | $310M | — | -12.9% | -3.4% | Buy | +1.3% |
ARR ARRY Array Technologies, Inc. | $1.2B | 11.6x | +17.1% | -5.6% | Buy | +12.9% |
MAX MAXN Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd. | $9M | — | -78.7% | -320.5% | — | — |
ENP ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $4.7B | 17.8x | -4.5% | 9.6% | Hold | +21.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FSLR Dividend and Capital Return
FSLR does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$16M
Estimated Shares Retired
71.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
107M
FAQ
7 questionsFSLR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 73 analysts covering the stock, 42 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $264, implying +21.2% from the current price of $218.
02What is the FSLR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FSLR is $264 based on 73 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $330 (+51.4% from today), and the low-end target is $205 (-6.0%). The base case model target is $374.
03Is First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) stock overvalued in 2026?
FSLR trades at 12.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FSLR in 2026 are: (1) Government Incentives and Subsidies — First Solar's profitability is heavily reliant on government policies like tax incentives and renewable energy targets. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Disruptions in the supply chain for critical inputs, such as tellurium, pose a significant risk to First Solar's operations. (3) Volatile Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures — First Solar's aggressive investment in new manufacturing facilities can lead to volatile cash flows, with periods of negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is First Solar, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FSLR will report consensus revenue of $5.7B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.46 (+19.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.1B in revenue.
06When does First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FSLR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does First Solar, Inc. generate?
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.8%. FSLR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($16M TTM).